(Dark Blue (169): Obama +10.0% or more
Lean Blue (107): Obama +3.6%-+9.9%
White / Toss-up (94): Obama +3.5% to McCain +3.5%
Lean Red (44): McCain +3.6%-+9.9%
Dark Red (124): McCain +10.0% or more)
Several new polls today, including Alaska, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, and two from Utah. However, the only change in tier is in Alaska, which moves from "Lean McCain" to "Toss Up."
Obama really should visit Alaska, not just run TV ads there. With several polls confirming a close campaign, not to mention competitive races at both the House and Senate levels, there is a lot that can be won in the state. Also, at around 41%, Anchorage represents a surprisingly high percentage of the state's population, making a rally there obvious. And, even if Obama doesn't win Alaska, the press he will receive from just traveling there would be huge. It is something no other major presidential candidate has done for a long, long time.
Like fivethirtyeight.com, I'm a big believer in Alaska this cycle. In fact, on a conference call with an organization looking to spend resources in the general election a few weeks ago, I even listed Anchorage as one of the top twelve swing cities that third-party groups should target. you can get more bang for your buck in Anchorage this cycle than in pretty much any other city in the country.
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
For each state, take all polls conducted for the state over the previous thirty days, and average them.
If one polling firm has more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days, take only the most recent poll.
Every state has at least two polls. If two polls were not conducted in a state over the last thirty days, use the two most recent polls from any polling firm.
If only one poll has been conducted in a state, then only use that poll.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease. Also, when the amount of data increases, I will be able to start projecting the swing, "toss-up" states. Right now, however, there just isn't enough data to push those states into one camp or the other.
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