Electoral College: Obama 293, McCain 168, Toss-up 77
National popular vote: Obama 47.1%-42.7% McCain
(Dark Blue (194): Obama +9.5% or more
Lean Blue (99): Obama +3.5%-+9.4%
White / Toss-up (77): Obama +3.4% to McCain +3.4%
Lean Red (84): McCain +3.5%-+9.4%
Dark Red (84): McCain +9.5% or more)
New polls in Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio and Texas today. As a result of the polls, New Jersey moves from "Lean Obama" to "Solid Obama," Texas is confirmed as "Lean McCain," Ohio nearly moves back to "Toss-up," and Kentucky is unchanged.
Obama's smallest lead in a Kerry state is now a 5.5% lead in Oregon. As such, right now it appears that the blue state base is very solid. It is highly unlikely that McCain will pick up a single Kerry state. This means that, among the states Bush won in 2004, Obama needs to find only another 17 electoral votes for a tie, and 18 for a win. What is the easiest path Obama can take to those votes?
The first stop is in Iowa, where Obama has led by substantial margins in every poll taken since January of 2007. Gore also won Iowa's seven electoral votes, and they look very good for Obama this year. That puts us ten votes from a tie, and eleven votes from a win.
Our next stop is in Colorado, where Obama has led in five consecutive polls. In fact, only one poll ever taken here, an outlying, outdated, internal Republican poll, has shown McCain ahead. Colorado has been trending blue for a while, and has a fully-fledged, vast left-wing conspiracy in the state. If Obama doesn't win Colorado's nine electoral votes, he probably won't win the presidency. That puts us only one vote from a tie, and two votes from a victory.
The next two best pickup opportunities come in New Mexico, worth five electoral votes, and Ohio, worth twenty electoral votes. Winning either of these will hand Obama the Presidency, and right now he holds significant leads in both. New Mexico might be the best bet here, given the many other elections taking place in the state, and the overwhelming Democratic operation statewide.
After that, the fifteen states listed in the "toss-up" or lean" categories are icing on the cake. While they are all winnable, none quite compare to the blue states and to the four states listed above. Picking up as many of these states will turn an Obam victory into an Obama blowout and mandate. And just how big can the blowout be? Collectively, the states where McCain's lead is either non-existent or under 10% are worth an astonishing 454 electoral votes. Now that would be pretty sweet.
State by state details in the extended entry. |
Solid Obama: 194 Electoral Votes
Lean Obama: 99 Electoral Votes
Toss-up: 77 Electoral Votes
Lean McCain: 84 Electoral Votes
| State |
EV's |
Obama % |
McCain % |
Margin |
# Polls |
| Georgia |
15 |
42.0% |
47.5% |
-5.5% |
2 |
| Indiana |
11 |
43.0% |
47.0% |
-4.0% |
2 |
| Kansas |
6 |
39.3% |
48.3% |
-9.0% |
4 |
| Mississippi |
6 |
43.5% |
50.0% |
-6.5% |
2 |
| Montana |
3 |
41.0% |
47.5% |
-6.5% |
2 |
| Nebraska-02** |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-6.7% |
0 |
| South Carolina |
8 |
42.0% |
48.0% |
-6.0% |
2 |
| Texas |
34 |
38.5% |
45.5% |
-7.0% |
2 |
Solid McCain: 84 Electoral Votes
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology
I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
- For each state, take all polls conducted for the state over the previous thirty days, and average them.
- If one polling firm has more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days, take only the most recent poll.
- Every state has at least two polls. If two polls were not conducted in a state over the last thirty days, use the two most recent polls from any polling firm.
- If only one poll has been conducted in a state, then only use that poll.
- No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease. Also, when the amount of data increases, I will be able to start projecting the swing, "toss-up" states. Right now, however, there just isn't enough data to push those states into one camp or the other. |
