(Dark Blue (207): Obama +9.0% or more
Lean Blue (86): Obama +3.0%-+8.9%
White / Toss-up (51): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (104): McCain +3.0%-+8.9%
Dark Red (90): McCain +9.0% or more)
Only one new state poll today, but it is a big one: Obama leads by 5% in Montana, according to Rasmussen. While this does not put Obama in the lead in Montana since the previous poll of the state, also from Rasmussen, showed McCain up 5%, it does show that the state should be competitive in the fall. This is a testament to the great success local Montana Democrats have had in building up the party, to the value of competing in a broader range of states than your opponent, and also to Obama's strength west of the Mississippi compared to other recent Democratic nominees.
McCain is now running ads in Virginia, after claiming in a now famous powerpoint presentation only a couple weeks ago that it was a safe, red state. They should buy ads in Virginia, too, since the last three polls in the state show Obama narrowly ahead. Will the McCain campaign now be forced to do the same in Montana? Or, for that matter, will he be forced to compete in Alaska, Indiana and North Dakota, too? Maybe even Georgia? After all, Rick Davis, who made the public claim that Virginia was not a swing state, is now out as campaign manager. I imagine we will see other strategic changes in direction from McCain, attempting to clean up after his mistakes.
It feels good to be winning. State by state details in the extended entry.
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
For each state, take all polls conducted for the state over the previous thirty days, and average them.
If one polling firm has more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days, take only the most recent poll.
Every state has at least two polls. If two polls were not conducted in a state over the last thirty days, use the two most recent polls from any polling firm.
If only one poll has been conducted in a state, then only use that poll.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease. Also, when the amount of data increases, I will be able to start projecting the swing, "toss-up" states. Right now, however, there just isn't enough data to push those states into one camp or the other.
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