Electoral College: Obama 293, McCain 184, Toss-up 61
National popular vote: Obama 46.4%-43.1% McCain
(Dark Blue (227): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (66): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (61): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (98): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more)
Since the last update, new polls in Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas, Oregon, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, Virginia and Washington once again result in no category changes to any state. Over the past week, there have been new polls from over twenty states, and no categories have been changed as a result of any of those polls. That is a very strong sign of a static campaign.
Since the campaign appears static right now, it is worth asking if a static campaign is good for Obama. Certainly, holding a statistically significant lead in states totaling 293 electoral votes would appear to be a good place for the campaign to freeze for Obama. On the other hand, while the state polls are static, McCain has gained about 1.1-1.6% in national polls, so perhaps the campaign is best described as somewhere between static and a slight trend toward McCain. Perhaps Obama has reached his ceiling, and the rest of the campaign will be about maintaining this lead, which really isn't very large. Further, a static campaign could be a side effect of the caution we have seen from the Obama campaign recently, when a less cautious campaign would have been able to build a huge lead over the past three weeks.
Or, maybe I am just overanalyzing things. The campaign has moved about 1% nationally, which hasn't had any real impact on the state-by-state situation. And maybe there isn't anything more to say about it than that, given that people won't really start paying attention to the campaign again for another five and a half weeks when convention season begins.
State by state details in the extended entry.
|Solid Obama: 227 Electoral Votes
Lean Obama: 66 Electoral Votes
Toss-up: 61 Electoral Votes
Lean McCain: 98 Electoral Votes
Solid McCain: 86 Electoral Votes
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
- For each state, take the last four polls conducted for the state, and average them.
- If more than four polls were conducted in the state over the previous thirty days, all polls conducted during that time period are included in the averages.
- If polling dates overlap, and make it difficult to determine which polls were the four most recent, include all of the overlapping polls.
- No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation. Also, if a polling firm has conducted more than one of the most recent four polls, all of the polls from that organization are included.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, both the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease and the definition of a "solid" lead will eventually drop to 7.0%.