(Dark Blue (210): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (54): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (117): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (71): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more)
Since the last update, there have been new polls from Colorado (2), Florida, Michigan, Minnesota (2), New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin. The category changes are as follows:
Colorado downgraded from "Lean Obama" to "Toss-up"
Florida upgraded from "Lean McCain" to "Toss-up"
Missouri clarified as "Toss-up" instead of "Lean McCain." I had been listed contradictory information.
It is worth noting that the first "red flag" poll--that is, a poll showing McCain leading in one of Obama's firewall states--in two months appeared today. It comes from Colorado, where the new Quinnipiac poll shows McCain with a narrow, 2% lead. Obama does still lead in the overall average in the state, but Obama's odds of winning the state have dropped below 68%. This is the first "red flag" poll to appear since a May 27th poll showed McCain leading in Michigan.
The red flag puts Obama below 270 electoral votes for the first time since June 16th. Still, since McCain cannot afford a single loss among the ten "toss-up" states, the odds of victory are still very strongly in Obama's favor.
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
For each state, take the last four polls conducted for the state, and average them.
If more than four polls were conducted in the state over the previous thirty days, all polls conducted during that time period are included in the averages.
If polling dates overlap, and make it difficult to determine which polls were the four most recent, include all of the overlapping polls.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation. Also, if a polling firm has conducted more than one of the most recent four polls, all of the polls from that organization are included.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, both the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease and the definition of a "solid" lead will eventually drop to 7.0%.
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