Via BooMan comes a report on Obama's short list for vice-president:
Obama: "His focus now includes five colleagues in the U.S. Senate - Joseph Biden, Evan Bayh, Chris Dodd, Hillary Clinton and Jack Reed - and two governors, Tim Kaine of Virginia and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, according to Democratic operatives, though he could still make a different pick."
No surprises in this list. These seven names are consistent with the semi-short list names we have seen floated for the past month or two. One item of note is that Jack Reed has taken himself out of contention recently, declaring that he would not accept the VP slot if offered. So, that means the six top candidates at this point are Bayh, Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Kaine and Sebelius.
Obama listed the qualities he'll be looking for: "I'm going to want somebody with integrity. I'm going to want somebody with independence - who's willing to tell me where he thinks, or she thinks, I'm wrong. And I'm going to want somebody who shares a vision of the country: where we need to go - that we've got to fundamentally change not only our policies, but how politics work, how business is done in Washington." (...)
"I think the most important thing, from my perspective, is somebody who can help me govern," Obama said. "I want somebody who I'm compatible with, who I can work with, who has a shared vision, who certainly complements me, in the sense that they provide a knowledge base or an area of expertise that can be useful. Because we're going to have a lot of problems and a lot of work to do."
Now, like so much in politics, this could simply be empty rhetoric and, as such, should not be taken seriously. However, if we were to take it at face value, the short list is pretty odd. None of the four Senators on the six-person list would be viewed as agents of change in D.C., and none of them would make Obama appear to be more of an agent of change in D.C.
Here are the four remaining Senators on the "short list," and why none of them really come close to Obama's stated vice-presidential criteria:
Evan Bayh owes his political career to being the son of Birch Bayh, who was a Senator for 18 years. Further, during his 10 years as a Senator, Bayh has done little to make his mark, other than serving as the leader of status-quo institutions like the DLC (2001-2005) and the Senate centrist caucus.
Joe Biden has been a Senator for 38 years. Yeah, that's real change.
Hillary Clinton has been in D.C. for 16 years, and Obama just spent a year running as the "change" or "reform" alternative to her. Further, no pick would appear more politically motivated than Clinton.
Chris Dodd has been in D.C. for 34 years. That really isn't any better than Biden. Granted, of late he has appeared more successful at rankling people in D.C., but his recent involvement with Countrywide Financial won't exactly make him look like change you can believe in, at least right now.
In short, these four Senators just don't even come close to Obama's stated criteria for picking a Vice-President. That leaves us with the two Governors, Tim Kaine and Kathleen Sebelius. Electorally speaking, Kaine can probably bring something to the table, considering that Obama is already narrowly ahead in Virginia. Adding those thirteen electoral votes would seriously complicate the electoral math for John McCain, given that the Kerry states, plus virtual lock Iowa, plus Virginia, would be enough to win the election. However, Kaine is also anti-choice and pro-abstinence education, and could open wide rifts in the party on those grounds, especially after a primary where Obama defeated the first viable woman candidate for president, ever.
The counter-argument for Sebelius is that she is boring, not a compelling speaker (and thus not clearly presidential) and her conception of "change" in Washington, D.C. has been accurately panned and trashed by Todd Beeton and Matt as naïve pro-elites. I guess my response to that is that by being boring, Sebelius will just make Obama look better. Also, Obama's rhetorical arguments about change have been pretty similar to those put forth by Sebelius. So, even the negatives about Sebelius actually help Obama look better / more comfortable with himself.
I'm not saying that Kathleen Sebelius is an ideal pick. I just think that, given the messages Obama has run on to date, she is the least harmful option out there.
