Presidential Forecast, 7/29: Obama's Base Growing

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Jul 29, 2008 at 13:02


Electoral College: Obama 264, McCain 172, Toss-up 102
National popular vote: Obama 47.0%-41.9% McCain


(Dark Blue (236): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (28): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (102): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (86): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more
)

Since the last front-page update, there have been new polls from California, Mississippi, New Mexico, New Jersey, North Carlina, North Dakota, Pennsylvania (2), South Carlina, and Washington. There are three category changes:

  • New Mexico upgrades from "Lean Obama" to "Solid Obama"
  • North Carolina downgrades from "Toss-up" to "Lean McCain"
  • Pennsylvania upgrades from "Lean Obama" to "Solid Obama."

Swing State Overview
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin Obama Total
Obama Base 236 236
Michigan 17 46.2% 38.8% +7.4% 253
Iowa 7 46.0% 39.8% +6.2% 260
New Hampshire 4 45.5% 42.5% +3.0% 264
Virginia 13 46.8% 44.8% +2.0% 277
Colorado 9 45.3% 43.5% +1.8% 286
Ohio 20 45.3% 44.0% +1.3% 306
Nevada 5 42.3% 43.0% -0.7% 311
North Dakota 3 42.3% 43.5% -1.2% 314
Missouri 11 43.8% 45.4% -1.6% 325
Indiana 11 43.3% 45.3% -2.0% 336
Montana 3 43.3% 46.0% -2.7% 339
Florida 27 43.2% 46.0% -2.8% 366
North Carolina 15 43.5% 47.0% -3.5% 281

It is heartening to see Pennsylvania and New Mexico removed from the swing state list, and placed into the solid category. Truth be told, I should probably remove Iowa and Michigan from the swing state list, too. The election will be won and lost in the other eleven states listed. Obama starts that fight with 260 electoral votes, while McCain only has 154.

State by state details in the extended entry.

Chris Bowers :: Presidential Forecast, 7/29: Obama's Base Growing
Solid Obama: 236 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
California 55 52.8% 36.3% +15.5% 4
Connecticut 7 54.4% 34.3% +19.0% 4
Delaware 3 50.0% 41.0% +9.0% 1
D.C. 3 -- -- +80.0% 0
Hawaii 4 61.0% 31.0% +30.0% 1
Illinois 21 55.5% 35.3% +20.2% 4
Maine-AL* 2 50.3% 36.0% +14.3% 4
Maine-01* 1 -- -- +17.5% 0
Maine-02* 1 -- -- +11.1% 0
Maryland 10 51.5% 37.3% +14.2% 4
Massachusetts 12 53.3% 33.0% +20.3% 4
Minnesota 10 48.3% 40.3% +8.8% 4
New Mexico 5 48.5% 40.3% +8.2% 4
New Jersey 15 47.8% 36.4% +11.4% 5
New York 31 54.5% 33.3% +21.2% 4
Oregon 7 48.0% 39.0% +9.0% 4
Pennsylvania 21 49.5% 40.3% +9.2% 4
Rhode Island 4 50.8% 31.0% +19.8% 4
Vermont 3 60.0% 32.5% +27.5% 2
Washington 11 50.3% 39.0% +11.3% 4
Wisconsin 10 50.0% 39.8% +10.3% 4

Lean Obama: 28 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
Iowa 7 46.0% 39.8% +6.2% 4
Michigan 17 46.2% 38.8% +7.4% 5
New Hampshire 4 45.5% 42.5% +3.0% 4

Toss-up: 102 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
Colorado 9 45.3% 43.5% +1.8% 4
Indiana 11 43.3% 45.3% -2.0% 4
Missouri 11 43.8% 45.4% -1.6% 5
Montana 3 43.3% 46.0% -2.7% 3
Nevada 5 42.3% 43.0% -0.7% 4
North Dakota 3 42.3% 43.5% -1.2% 4
Ohio 20 45.3% 44.0% +1.3% 4
Virginia 13 46.8% 44.8% +2.0% 4
Florida 27 43.2% 46.0% -2.8% 6

Lean McCain: 86 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
Alaska 3 42.0% 47.3% -5.3% 4
Arizona 10 37.3% 44.0% -6.7% 4
Georgia 15 41.8% 48.5% -6.7% 4
Nebraska-02** 1 -- -- -5.0% 0
North Carolina 15 43.5% 47.0% -3.5% 4
South Carolina 8 40.0% 46.8% -6.8% 4
Texas 34 38.8% 46.3% -7.5% 4

Solid McCain: 86 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
Alabama 9 35.5% 51.3% -15.8% 4
Arkansas 6 38.0% 49.0% -11.0% 4
Idaho 4 39.0% 52.0% -13.0% 1
Kansas 6 36.8% 51.0% -14.2% 4
Kentucky 8 36.5% 49.5% -13.0% 4
Louisiana 9 38.5% 51.3% -12.8% 4
Mississippi 6 42.3% 51.3% -9.0% 4
Nebraska-AL** 2 36.0% 52.0% -16.0% 4
Nebraska-01** 1 -- -- -10.0% 0
Nebraska-03** 1 -- -- -34.0% 0
Oklahoma 7 32.5% 53.3% -20.8% 2
South Dakota 3 38.8% 47.5% -8.7% 3
Tennessee 11 34.8% 50.8% -16.0% 4
Utah 5 32.0% 55.3% -23.3% 4
West Virginia 5 36.0% 49.0% -13.0% 2
Wyoming 3 37.5% 53.5% -16.0% 2

* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.

** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.

Methodology
I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.

  1. For each state, take the last four polls conducted for the state, and average them.
  2. If more than four polls were conducted in the state over the previous thirty days, all polls conducted during that time period are included in the averages.
  3. If polling dates overlap, and make it difficult to determine which polls were the four most recent, include all of the overlapping polls.
  4. No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation. Also, if a polling firm has conducted more than one of the most recent four polls, all of the polls from that organization are included.

As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, both the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease and the definition of a "solid" lead will eventually drop to 7.0%.  


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it's like three open seat senate races (0.00 / 0)
We only need to win one, but they're in Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio.  

Or you can call it six, and throw in Missouri, Florida, and Indiana.


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


Or Nevada and a EV from Nebraska for exactly 270 (4.00 / 1)


[ Parent ]
can you say landslide? (4.00 / 1)
kudos to all 50-state strategists

You can say landslide (0.00 / 0)
But you're not going to be seeing one any time soon.  

[ Parent ]
McCain will make a play for MI and NH, probably also NM (4.00 / 1)
We're in a good position, but we shouldn't think that the "safe" states will stay safe from now until November. I hope Obama's campaign plays offense especially in places like Michigan.

So though we're in a positive news cycle, we shouldn't fall into the trap of acting like we're in the lead.


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