Romney Wins Straw Poll, Huckabee in Second

by: Matt Stoller

Sat Aug 11, 2007 at 21:59


From the Des Moines Register...

Candidate Votes Pct.
1. Mitt Romney 4,516 31.6%
2. Mike Huckabee 2,587 18.1%
3. Sam Brownback 2,192 15.3%
4. Tom Tancredo  1,960 13.7%
5. Ron Paul  1,305 9.1%
6. Tommy Thompson 1,039 7.3%
7. Fred Thompson 203 1.4%
8. Rudy Giuliani 183 1.3%
9. Duncan Hunter 174 1.2%
10. John McCain  101 0.7%
11. John Cox  41 0.3%

Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson weren't playing.  Romney, by contrast, spent at least $200k on the event.  Tommy Thompson said he'd leave the race unless he got first or second, so it looks like he's out.  In terms of wingnuttia energy, it looks like the nativist Tom Tancredo-ites beat out Ron Paul.

Huckabee is running against the right-wing business elite, and Brownback is the social conservative in the race.  They both did very well.  I don't have any special insight into this race, though Huckabee's anti-business populism is something to keep an eye on.  Huckabee says he wants the Republican Party to stop being a wholly owned subsidiary of Wall Street and the corporations.  Good luck on that one.


UPDATE:  Patrick Ruffini says that this is deadly for Ron Paul, whose communications director said before the poll that ""We expect to be in the top three...We've got four staffers organizing and we've got a lot of web site RSVPs from volunteers."

Right-wing blogger Soren Dayton notes that Romney people were soliciting paid Democratic staffers to vote for Romney, and gives his thoughts.

My read is that social conservatives are split, and immigration is really important. The fact that Huckabee + Brownback is greater than Romney will be noticed. At best, you can argue that conservatives are leaning Romney. Thompson will get in and take votes from Romney, whose support is soft.

We are moving in to a weird situation with the conservative votes getting split many different ways. At the same time, Cox, Hunter, Thompson, etc. all need to get out. Ron Paul doesn't really get a bump.

The interesting dynamic going forward will be whether Brownback and Huckabee go after each other or they go after Romney. Or Fred Thompson…

Giuliani (and to a lesser extent McCain) has got to be thrilled. With no clear opponent coming out of this, although Romney is the strongest, he can go forward, while the conservatives in the race still have to figure out how to cut up the field for themselves.

The Ron Paul dynamic is eerily similar to Dean's experience in the Iowa caucuses.
Matt Stoller :: Romney Wins Straw Poll, Huckabee in Second

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Romney Wins Straw Poll, Huckabee in Second | 15 comments
Some thoughts... (0.00 / 0)
Romney lost by getting less than 1/3 of the vote. He bussed in 100 family members and spent lots of money getting people to Ames. He should've done better; with the AP headline reading "Romney wins, as expected", he's not going to get much play.

Huckabee - someone to watch for. It'll be interesting to see if Club For Growth ups their attacks on him; he's been on their shit list since he raised taxes in Arkansas as governor. Nevertheless, someone to watch, and he has a somewhat inspirational story (losing 100+ pounds) to rely on that will appeal to the general electorate, no matter how superficial it is.

Brownback is too much of a nut to gain any real traction, IMO. Paul's showing was disappointing for the amount of press he's gotten as of late.

Hunter and Tommy Thompson should drop out after this.

I've long thought (0.00 / 0)
that Huckabee was the most dangerous one, but he never seemed to be getting a foothold.  Now, that could change.

I didn't realize that he's running an anti-corporation campaign.  I thought he was mostly just fighting with Brownback over the religious right.  Given that Brownback is as pro-corporate as they come, that may be advantage to Huckabee, especially since Huckabee is a Southern Baptist, and more traditionally republican than the Catholic Brownback.

And the Club for Growth is slowly becoming toxic for their candidates.  And gold for their opponents.

And of course, Romney is the corporate choice.  Huckabee's really drawing a line of strong distinction there. 

This showing could be the kind of thing that could boost Huckabee. 

And, on the snarkier side, why didn't Obama get any votes?  Or Noneoftheabove's insurgent campaign?  They're both doing quite well in Iowa.  No write-in's allowed?

Also, looks like less than 15,000 votes were cast.  Seems pretty low.  Might be bad for the Iowa Republican party, seeing as how this is a pretty big fundraiser for them.  Barely half a million dollars.

[ Parent ]
I'm scared of Huckabee (0.00 / 0)
he's one candidate the GOP has that will bring the base out on election day.

Netroots Director for Oregon Senate Candidate Jeff Merkley
[ Parent ]
As expected.. (4.00 / 1)
Romney did well. Tommy Thompson had 143 visits to Iowa, and came in behind Ron Paul. Time to retire. John McCain didn't participate, but I don't think he would have done much better had he. What a bland group of socially awkward white men the GOP has. I don't see how any of the B-team Dems couldn't mop the floor with these jokers in '08.
This reminds me of Ancient Druid Priests.... (0.00 / 0)
...reading the entrails of goats...or something...don't quite know why but it surely does.

Peace, Health and Prosperity for Everyone.
I'm SO Disappointed! (4.00 / 2)
Tommy Thompson said he'd leave the race unless he got first or second, so it looks like he's out.

I was so looking forward to a Thompson Twins ticket!

you told me you loved me
so i don't understand
why promises are snapped in two
and words are made to bend
(the bigger, the better)
some stolen from japan
collected from around the world,
they'll catch you if they can
(chorus)
lies lies lies yeah!
lies lies lies yeah!
lies lies lies yeah!


"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3
Straw poll (0.00 / 0)
I'm not sure why I'm bothering to comment on the "straw poll" which is nothing more than a fundraiser for the Iowa's republican party, but I didn't see any real surprises here.  I would not be surprised if Huckabee ends up in a VP slot for whichever of these wingnuts gets the nomination.
No real movement. (0.00 / 0)
This is pretty much what everyone expected. I don't think the Romney campaign really helped themselves, but didn't hurt themselves either. It helps Huckabee, who will mix some interesting populism in the debates. Doesn't really affect the other people other than that it shows that there is a scary group of nativists running around America (or at least Iowa).

Goodbye Duncan Hunter and Tommy Thompson, we hardly knew ye!

Huckabee (0.00 / 0)
If Huckabee starts to get some traction as an anti-corporate candidate, would the Republican establishment find a way to squash him?  Would they be able to?  Granted, that message alone might make it tough for him to raise money, which he already has a lot of trouble with.  Still, running against him in a general election seems a bit more terrifying the more I hear about him.
That we can even talk about (4.00 / 2)
a Republican presidential candidate possibly gaining traction on an anti-corporate semi-populist platform should be a wakeup call that the politics of class and economics are rapidly and radically changing.  Democrats in 2008 "triangulate" toward corporatist economics at the risk of surrendering a party birthright which may be now returning to fashion.  Sad to say but at this point such self-defeating political "calculation" is all too predictable.

Iraq Moratorium Day
[ Parent ]
Anyone know anything about Romney's gubanatorial campaign? (0.00 / 0)
Because the way he's running for the nomination makes him look like an extremely attractive opponent for the good guys.  The main asset he's displayed is willingness to blow money and precious little else.  In the general, unless he's willing to dump his entire personal fortune into the campaign, there's not going to be any significant financial edge

Also, anyone else never heard of John Cox?

John Cox (0.00 / 0)
is a nutter from the Chicago suburbs.  He must be wealthy, as he keeps running for office and losing badly. 

He's like Jim Oberweiss, but nuttier.

[ Parent ]
Huckabee is the only (0.00 / 0)
Republican candidate that scares me. The rest of them have huge obvious flaws that will be easy to expose. Huckabee would get total love from the Repub social conversative base, but has a combination of sunny optimism and feisty southern populism that I think would be very dangerous in a general election.
Cost of Romney's votes (0.00 / 0)
Figuring that Romney spent "at least" $200,000 in the straw poll, his cost per vote comes to about $44.29.  Of course, these votes don't actually count, in the sense that no delegates have been committed as a result.  So this cost per vote is really just the tip of the lettuce leaf.

I  don't know what Romney's personal wealth is, but I would tend to doubt that he's willing to spend it all to get himself elected.  George W Bush bought himself into striking range in the 2000 election using corporate donations.  Looks like Mitt's going to have to do the same.

This may be why Mitt is so enthusiastic in his praise of W.  No one can doubt that the corporations got much more than their money's worth when they bought W.  Mitt's emulation of W is a marketing strategy.  He's saying to the corporations, "If you liked what you got when you bought W, I'm your chance to do it again."

I just wonder (0.00 / 0)
how NONE OF THE ABOVE did.
Romney Wins Straw Poll, Huckabee in Second | 15 comments
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