CO and NV (4.00 / 4)

are the other part of McCain's firewall (where the wall is crumbling). That's apparent also by the high frequency of visits he's made to these two states. He was in both of them yesterday and today. I think Obama should up the spending in CO because that state is not in the bag yet but I think we have a better chance there than in VA still.

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by: adamterando @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 12:51:26 PM CDT

Ohio the ultimate swing state... (0.00 / 0)

Interesting that both candidates are spending about the same here... Ohio $2,486 $2,568 -$82


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by: bluethunder @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 13:52:53 PM CDT

GOTV Spending (4.00 / 2)

Also, remember that these figures ignore the amount of time and money Obama's campaign has spent registering voters, organizing supporters, and building infrastructure.  Considering he is overwhelming McCain on this front it will be interesting how that changes things in November.  While organization and enthusiasm cannot win Obama more than a couple percentage points in these states, the cumulative effect is likely to push him ahead where the polling is close, such as NV, VA, or FL.  If there is one thing his campaign probably learned during the primary, simply throwing money away by saturating the airwaves can only get you so far (see OH & PA)

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by: rationalj @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 14:05:26 PM CDT

McCain spending $0 on ads in Florida? (0.00 / 0)

That's almost impossible to believe; surely he's been running ads there.  Is that just a typo?

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by: Haggai @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 14:20:26 PM CDT

No typo (0.00 / 0)

No McCain ads in Florida.

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by: Chris Bowers @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 14:26:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well, I checked the link... (4.00 / 1)

...and it appears to be true:

Although Florida was the pivotal state in the 2000 presidential election, John McCain has not aired a single ad there since June 3rd. Senator Obama has aired over 7,000 ads in Florida since becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee and has spent more money in Florida than in any other state.

Pretty baffling.  I'm not sure what to make of that.  McCain is still slightly ahead in the polls there.  If Obama has already outspent McCain by $5 million to none in Florida and still isn't ahead, should we be significantly more pessimistic about it than the other big swing states?  Or is it still too early to tell?

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by: Haggai @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 14:26:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

well, he has been ahead in some FL polls (4.00 / 1)

and electoral-vote.com, for example, has it tied in the average of the most recent polls.

So I think we should conclude the ads are good.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

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by: Hopeful in NJ @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 15:01:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good points here and below as well (0.00 / 0)

No primary in FL definitely meant that Obama had some catching up to do in terms of getting ads up, and the polling trends have demonstrated some positive effects from that.

Still, ZERO ads in FL by McCain can't last for much longer.  Will he be able to open up a real lead there once they put some money into it?  I guess that's what his campaign is counting on.

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by: Haggai @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 15:35:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

this graph explains it: (4.00 / 1)

http://www.pollster.com/polls/...

McCain was ahead in every poll through mid-June before Obama's ads starting making a dent. McCain can't afford to spend in expensive states he is/was leading.

One benefit of the long Dem. primary is that Obama has already run countless ads in most U.S. states but Florida (and Michigan) are exceptions because of the uncontested primaries there.

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by: tremayne @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 14:27:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No, I saw that figure elsewhere (4.00 / 1)

Obama has spent more on TV in Florida than either of them has spent in any other state and McCain hasn't spend a penny. For some reason, McCain seems to think his small lead there is safe. Obviously if Obama steals it, he wins big.

McCain is focused on Penn, Ohio, Michigan, and Missouri. I think Penn is so solidly blue these days that I can't imagine he continues to contest it as such a high level. Same for Wisconsin. Michigan, though, is cause for concern, especially if McCain picks Mittens to run with him. Michigan seems to be the best chance right now for him to steal a Kerry state, and it's a big one.

McCain is doing what he has no choice but to do, to focus his money on the industrial Midwest and the South West and to hope and pray that the red states come back into the fold.

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by: david mizner @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 14:29:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Frankly (4.00 / 2)

the Florida imbalance was needed to introduce Obama into the State since he didn't campaign there in the primaries.

The McCain people seem awfully confident about Florida....

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by: fladem @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 15:13:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

$ Amount vs. Percentage (4.00 / 1)

The spending differences are more revealing when you look at them in terms of percent difference instead of dollar amount. For instance, although the dollar amount that McCain has outspent Obama in PA seems significant, the percentage isn't (16%). Furthermore, in a more expensive ad market like PA, it would take Obama very little in terms of new ad buys to even up or overtake McCain. In the meantime, in Iowa, the difference in terms of percent is more significant (35%) in favor of McCain (even though the dollar amount is less than in PA), and Obama would have to significantly increase ad buys in this less expensive (relatively) ad market to match McCain. Not a big deal, but a better way to look at the data because ad markets are truly an apples-to-oranges comparison.  

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by: jeffbinnc @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 14:31:08 PM CDT

Obama already pretty familiar there (0.00 / 0)

He ran lots of ads in PA and also in IA, I think.  He's in the Medwest this week, so maybe he will run ads there, but right now I thik he's ahead in IA.  

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

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by: Mimikatz @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 15:23:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

support up and down the ticket (4.00 / 1)

obama is spending money in states he probably knows he can't win to help the whole ticket top to bottom, something clinton never really tried to do.

you can't carry out a legislative agenda without a congress that is sympathetic to your policies, helping others get elected will go a long way in creating loyalty when votes are hard to make on future legislation.  

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by: pc @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 14:45:26 PM CDT

Correlation (4.00 / 1)

I just did a very very crude correlation run:

I took your June 6 numbers for those states, and then took your July 27th numbers for those states, and looked at the movement for Obama within them.  Then I correlated that to the difference in advertising money spent in each state.  There was an R of about .13, which is very low.  Obviously this doesn't adjust for population or anything, just wanted to see if it was glaring.

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by: Werty83 @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 15:35:32 PM CDT

Population-adjusted figures (4.00 / 1)

When I was reading this, I thought population-adjusted figures might be more useful.  So I did some math, and tossed the relevant numbers, with commentary, into a diary.  

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by: blueleader @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 15:42:07 PM CDT

Thanks! (0.00 / 0)

Just ran a quick correlation on those numbers, and the correlation doubled to .23, which means there's about a .06 R^2 in the change in the poll numbers.  Given how much variance there is in polling, that's not small at all.  Obviously still doesn't explain a lot, but 6% of the movement in polls isn't nothing.

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by: Werty83 @ Wed Jul 30, 2008 at 16:00:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]