Opening the Day: The Negative Narrative Against Obama Solidifies

by: Matt Stoller

Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 11:35


Well, Obama is officially becoming an arrogant celebrity in the grand American political narrative, and their rebuttal is that McCain's lies are the politics of the past.

  • Digby has the backstory.

  • Big Tent Democrat argues Obama is losing ground in Ohio.

  • The Politico finds a nugget of evidence that actually makes sense.

    Perhaps one of the clearest indications emerged Tuesday from the world of late-night comedy, when David Letterman offered his "Top Ten Signs Barack Obama is Overconfident." The examples included Obama proposing to change the name of Oklahoma to "Oklobama" and measuring his head for Mount Rushmore.

    "When Letterman is doing 'Top Ten' lists about something, it has officially entered the public consciousness," said Dan Schnur, a political analyst from the University of Southern California and the communications director in John McCain's 2000 campaign. "And it usually stays there for a long, long time."

  • Exxon had record profits.

  • Marvin Ammori is a key organizer of the net neutrality fight.  Aside from the stupid 'he's a geek because he works with computers' tone, this is pretty good profile.

  • People are mad at the Washington Post for lying about Obama.  And Dana Milbank doesn't read blogs because if something is important it will be brought to his attention.

  • Republicans are assholes.

    Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) has a sign in front of his office that reads: "This sign is in violation of Section 3.4.1 of the House Office Building Commission Hallway Policy and may be subject to removal."

    It's a protest against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D-Calif.) initiative to clear the hallways of placards and charts. The deadline for sign removal is Friday...

    "While we recognize the meaning and significance of the easels honoring our fallen servicemen and -women in Iraq and Afghanistan, we would hope that members also recognize the very real need to keep our hallways safe for disabled persons," said Jeff Ventura, spokesman for the CAO. He suggested that members move the displays into their offices.

The solidification of this narrative is very frustrating, and didn't have to happen.  There are multiple Republican front groups going after Obama on the celebrity and drilling front that are obviously collaborating with the McCain campaign.  On our side?  Labor blew a lot of its advertising money in the primary, the youth space has been defunded, the outside groups are gone, and Obama has told reporters not to listen to Moveon/bloggers.

Even though it probably won't cost him the election, this narrative will hurt Obama, just as the 'untrustworthy philandering criminal' narrative didn't stop Clinton from being elected but did lead to 1994 and then his impeachment.  Taking apart all power centers within the party except your own is very risky and paints a very big target, and not just for natural opponents like the Republicans.

Matt Stoller :: Opening the Day: The Negative Narrative Against Obama Solidifies

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Who cares (4.00 / 2)
what BTD argues?  He is as bad as the traditional media.  Obama is doing worse than Kerry with white women according to BTD, he has no evidence, It's just truthiness.  Look for him to make up all sorts of reasons why Obama is going to loose after he doesn't pick Clinton.

Dana Milbank is generally a very good reporter (0.00 / 0)
I can't think of another reporter's name, except maybe Dan Froomkin also at WaPo, who covers Fed govt with as much depth and honesty. In general - don't troll me mistaking that I'm saying Milbank is god. I'm saying he's a very good reporter. He got this story completely wrong on Obama and what he said, yes. But all reporters make mistakes... even holier than tho bloggers. So Milbank should make a correction, but this kind of snarky snide condemnation is just ridiculous. I read two blogs - and one is my own and I only read it for proof reading my stories. Milbank is right, one simply does not need to read a dozen blogs to get the news of the day.  

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

just for the record (0.00 / 0)
Clinton was a philanderer. And it is rather unethical and kind of an abuse of power to bang the white house intern when you are The President.

A far cry from Obama who actually is not what he's accused of being.

Agreed on the point that marginalizing supporters is beyond stupid. Labor certainly has more money if it wants to cut bureaucratic perks find it however.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare


I don't know if it's so bad (4.00 / 1)
I mean, look at it this way - there was going to be some negative narrative that solidified around Obama, that was inevitable. As negative narratives go, this isn't so terrible.  

Yeah (0.00 / 0)
I agree its hard to make this into a reason not to elect someone.

[ Parent ]
Yes. (0.00 / 0)
The media star is not going to convert people. It will only motivate those who already don't like him.

I wonder if the media star story will backfire. Media stars are people who are liked in general (usually). It is hard for the Rev Wright story etc to come back hard if Obama is a star.  

We won the Battle. Now the Real Fight for Change Begins. Join MoveOn.org and fight for progressive change.  


[ Parent ]
Good point (4.00 / 1)
In fact, I've often thought that a good politician would purposefully create their own positive and negative image.  Everyone will has some negative image around them, better to have control over what negatives take hold in the popular imagination.

Arrogant Celebrity is perfectly fine as long as it doesn't morph into Weak.  America will vote for Captain Hammer through the first two and a half acts, but not the one at the end.


[ Parent ]
There is plenty of time to undermine this narrative (0.00 / 0)
I agree that it's a real narrative at this point - as evidenced mostly by the comics - but we're still in July.

I expect a full-throttle response is on its way (though perhaps only indirectly, by way of positive imagery), and I think it should be effective.  In fact, it's really an opening for Obama to stress his unusual, yet very American, biography.


Shit that sticks (4.00 / 2)
As I've stated before, we tend to give Republicans too much credit as Evil Geniuses when it comes to dirty politics.  In reality, they just throw a lot of shit and see what sticks.  We all made fun of how the charges against Obama contradicted each other, but that doesn't matter while they are still searching; once they find something that seems to work, they keep hitting it over and over.

Obama is very self confident and popular, so "arrogant celebrity" works well for them.

What up with the "same old politics" rebuttal?  I've seen commercials with the phrase "same old politics" in every election cycle for every candidate for every office I've ever seen.  It has gotten to the point that the phrase "same old politics" really is the same old politics, which seems to make the phrase useless.

Better counter-attack, please.


I still gotta think that the Republican capacity to address voter's liminal (4.00 / 1)
motivations is reasonably impressive.

     Compare HRC's "speeches don't put food on the table," which functions on a rational level, to this "celeb" line, which taps right into this Country's irrational and incredibly complicated relationship to celebrity. It's reframing, not argument.

         


[ Parent ]
It doesn't bother me (0.00 / 0)
I thought the Letterman Top Ten list was funny, and it just reinforces the notion that Obama is popular.  

Here's the optimistic version: (4.00 / 3)
First Read has a number of quotes condemning McCain's ads and pieces on how people on the GOP side are getting concerned that McCain's negative advertising is, in fact, making him seem like just another politician, ruining what was his greatest strength besides the "hero" image.'  It's even turning off some at "the Corner".  Wasn;t this the cornerstone of his appeal to the youth vote?  Maybe their tactic is just to depress the youth vote completely, letting the other grumpy old people decide the election.

There is some evidence that the McCain people also had an ad ready accusing Obama of using the troops for props if he had gone to Landstuhl medical facility.  So they were going to go negative redardless.  But 70+% of the people in an CNN poll think Obama is patriotic and cares about the troops.  OTOH, Bush is about to veto the Veterans Affairs appropriation bill again, and John McCain, who has rarely been in the Senate since sometime last year, won't vote to override.  That will make a nice ad.

And even if Obama is down a bit in Ohio and PA and even FL in the Q poll, he's still up in all three states and it is probably just statistical noise.


John McCain--He's not who you think he is.


Not To Worry... (0.00 / 0)
...John McCain and his campaign are unraveling like an old sweater.  So, let's all watch and cheer as he hangs himself with it.

How do you rebut it? (4.00 / 2)
It's kind of hard to rebut an argument that you're arrogant. You can't go on TV and say you're humble and expect that to work. And if Obama keeps drawing crowds, there will always be footage of people cheering and waving flags or posters that will make him look like a celebrity.

However, you can use your response to help define your opponent. Or tarnish their brand, in other words. And if you're good at this, people won't think you're going negative when you are. I think this is what Obama is trying to do but it may take a couple of ads to fine-tune their approach.

McCain generally viewed, rightly or wrongly, as someone who has integrity and is a political maverick. (At least that's what he's basing his campaign on.) If McCain keeps up with ads that the media views as distortions, you keep hitting back with ads that leave the viewer with the impression that he's a liar. You never come out and say that, just so that's what people take away from the ad. Additionally, McCain is probably one of the few politicians that if you can get the "same old politics" to stick, it hurts him. There may be better phrasing, but the objective is to get people to stop thinking of him as a maverick.

If you can suceed in doing these two objectives, then the net impact is good for Obama, even if the arrogant celebrity narrative lingers.


Strength (4.00 / 1)
You can't rebut either the arrogant or celebrity attack because both are true -- they are the other side of the confident and popular coin.

The key is to keep showing true confidence (no more FISA defections, please) and throw the popularity back into McCain's face.

What you really can't let happen is for what Arrogant Celebrity implies -- weak, know-nothing fool -- to stick.

Obama as Captain Hammer?



[ Parent ]
Warning sign? (0.00 / 0)
dansac argues that this strategy is a coordinated attack designed to shore up the Republican base by turning them off of Obama, and that it's working.

If he's going for his base at this point (4.00 / 2)
It's pretty pathetic.  And considering he's doing it at the expense of his integrity and all the things that made him attractive to Indies, it seems suicidal.

McCain has a ceiling of about 44-45%.  Obama has not yet found his ceiling, but it is certainly 50% or above, and that's all he needs to win.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.


[ Parent ]
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