Presidential Forecast, 7/31: Numbers and Gut Disconnect

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Jul 31, 2008 at 13:13


Electoral College: Obama 264, McCain 172, Toss-up 102
National popular vote: Obama 47.2%-41.6% McCain


(Dark Blue (236): Obama +8.0% or more
Lean Blue (28): Obama +3.0%-+7.9%
White / Toss-up (102): Obama +2.9% to McCain +2.9%
Lean Red (86): McCain +3.0%-+7.9%
Dark Red (86): McCain +8.0% or more)

New polls from Florida, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, Ohio and Pennsylvania continue to, collectively speaking, show Obama is a very solid position. There are no category changes, but Obama has taken a slight lead in Florida. Five million dollars worth of unopposed television ads, combined with more than a dozen field offices in the state, can do that sort of thing.

Swing State Overview
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin Obama Total
Obama Base 243 243
Michigan 17 45.5% 41.3% +4.2% 260
New Hampshire 4 45.5% 42.5% +3.0% 264
Virginia 13 46.8% 44.8% +2.0% 277
Colorado 9 45.3% 43.5% +1.8% 286
Ohio 20 45.4% 44.0% +1.4% 306
Florida 27 46.8% 46.3% +0.5% 333
Nevada 5 42.3% 43.0% -0.7% 338
North Dakota 3 42.3% 43.5% -1.2% 341
Missouri 11 43.8% 45.4% -1.6% 352
Indiana 11 43.3% 45.3% -2.0% 363
Montana 3 43.3% 46.0% -2.7% 366
North Carolina 15 43.5% 47.0% -3.5% 381

A lot of people seems to be upset about the way the campaign is going. However, according to Pollster.com, this is the second largest lead Obama has held all year. Further, McCain is at his lowest point this year, sinking all the way down to 41.6% support. I admit it doesn't feel great right now, but the numbers are actually pretty darn good. Obama only needs to win one of Virginia, Colorado, Ohio and Florida to win the election, and polls show him leading in all four. In fact, Obama could lose all four of those, but still emerge victorious if he wins Nevada and Congress breaks the 269-269 tie.

So, there seems to be a disconnect between how well it feels like it is going, and how well the numbers show it to be going. State by state details in the extended entry.

Update: Even with the new Gallup poll that shows Obama only ahead by 1% included, Pollster.com still shows Obama ahead by 4.9%, and with roughly a 90% chance of being ahead. During the period after Clinton's depature from the campaign and before the "moving to the center" narrative really set in, Obama's lead was consistently 4.4% to 4.9%. In other words, the new attacks haven't made any impact. At least yet.
Chris Bowers :: Presidential Forecast, 7/31: Numbers and Gut Disconnect
Solid Obama: 236 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
California 55 52.8% 36.3% +15.5% 4
Connecticut 7 54.4% 34.3% +19.0% 4
Delaware 3 50.0% 41.0% +9.0% 1
D.C. 3 -- -- +80.0% 0
Hawaii 4 61.0% 31.0% +30.0% 1
Illinois 21 55.5% 35.3% +20.2% 4
Maine-AL* 2 50.3% 36.0% +14.3% 4
Maine-01* 1 -- -- +17.5% 0
Maine-02* 1 -- -- +11.1% 0
Maryland 10 51.5% 37.3% +14.2% 4
Massachusetts 12 53.3% 33.0% +20.3% 4
Minnesota 10 48.3% 40.3% +8.8% 4
New Mexico 5 48.5% 40.3% +8.2% 4
New Jersey 15 47.8% 36.4% +11.4% 5
New York 31 54.5% 33.3% +21.2% 4
Oregon 7 48.0% 39.0% +9.0% 4
Pennsylvania 21 48.8% 40.8% +8.0% 4
Rhode Island 4 50.8% 31.0% +19.8% 4
Vermont 3 60.0% 32.5% +27.5% 2
Washington 11 50.3% 39.0% +11.3% 4
Wisconsin 10 50.0% 39.8% +10.3% 4

Lean Obama: 28 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
Iowa 7 46.0% 39.8% +6.2% 4
Michigan 17 45.5% 41.3% +4.2% 4
New Hampshire 4 45.5% 42.5% +3.0% 4

Toss-up: 102 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
Colorado 9 45.3% 43.5% +1.8% 4
Florida 27 46.8% 46.3% +0.5% 4
Indiana 11 43.3% 45.3% -2.0% 4
Missouri 11 43.8% 45.4% -1.6% 5
Montana 3 43.3% 46.0% -2.7% 3
Nevada 5 42.3% 43.0% -0.7% 4
North Dakota 3 42.3% 43.5% -1.2% 4
Ohio 20 45.4% 44.0% +1.4% 5
Virginia 13 46.8% 44.8% +2.0% 4

Lean McCain: 86 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
Alaska 3 42.0% 47.3% -5.3% 4
Arizona 10 37.3% 44.0% -6.7% 4
Georgia 15 41.8% 48.5% -6.7% 4
Nebraska-02** 1 -- -- -7.0% 0
North Carolina 15 43.5% 47.0% -3.5% 4
South Carolina 8 40.0% 46.8% -6.8% 4
Texas 34 38.8% 46.3% -7.5% 4

Solid McCain: 86 Electoral Votes
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls
Alabama 9 35.5% 51.3% -15.8% 4
Arkansas 6 38.0% 49.0% -11.0% 4
Idaho 4 39.0% 52.0% -13.0% 1
Kansas 6 36.8% 51.0% -14.2% 4
Kentucky 8 36.5% 49.5% -13.0% 4
Louisiana 9 38.5% 51.3% -12.8% 4
Mississippi 6 43.0% 51.3% -8.3% 4
Nebraska-AL** 2 35.3% 53.3% -18.0% 4
Nebraska-01** 1 -- -- -12.0% 0
Nebraska-03** 1 -- -- -36.0% 0
Oklahoma 7 32.5% 53.3% -20.8% 2
South Dakota 3 38.8% 47.5% -8.7% 3
Tennessee 11 34.8% 50.8% -16.0% 4
Utah 5 32.0% 55.3% -23.3% 4
West Virginia 5 36.0% 49.0% -13.0% 2
Wyoming 3 37.5% 53.5% -16.0% 2

* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.

** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.

Methodology
I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.

  1. For each state, take the last four polls conducted for the state, and average them.
  2. If more than four polls were conducted in the state over the previous thirty days, all polls conducted during that time period are included in the averages.
  3. If polling dates overlap, and make it difficult to determine which polls were the four most recent, include all of the overlapping polls.
  4. No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation. Also, if a polling firm has conducted more than one of the most recent four polls, all of the polls from that organization are included.

As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, both the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease and the definition of a "solid" lead will eventually drop to 7.0%.  

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Presidential Forecast, 7/31: Numbers and Gut Disconnect | 31 comments
Because of trending down? (4.00 / 10)
Gallup has it down to a 1 point race again... wouldn't be too surprised to see a tie or even a slight McCain lead tomorrow based on the trend it's showing now.  McCain seems to be succeeding at driving Obama's negatives up, which is really starting to drag Obama down in a lot of these numbers.  Obama continues to only respond about the "politics of old" without launching any new attacks.

This is pretty much what happens in every election.  Everyone promises to run a "respectful" campaign, the Republicans immediately break that promise, the Democrats and even part of the media complain about how negative and personal the Republicans attacks are (but still basically show and report them in "fairness" to "balance"), the Democrats respond by saying that the Republicans are trying to scare you, and then the Republicans win, and everyone looks back and says "Well, I guess all those negative attacks worked", and they lose absolutely nothing in the process.

I think that's why people are upset.  The conventions will obviously turn everything upside down in terms of polling, but I'll reiterate... if Democrats fail to go on the offensive during it, expect the Republicans to take advantage and blast the hell out of Obama anyway.  After that, I could definitely see McCain taking a slight lead in the race which Obama will have a lot of trouble erasing, and we're back to 2004 again.

I think despite what people say, these undecided voters actually tend to vote in the negative.  That is, they decide who they dislike more, and then vote for the other one.  As long as McCain can keep driving up Obama's negatives without much of a price, you can expect more and more of these voters to decide against Obama.

I agree (0.00 / 0)
I think Newport may even have been setting us up for a McCain lead in the next few days with this comment:

''...it is significant that McCain has never held even a 1-point lead among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.''

Who knows though, maybe Obama will have a good day today after pushing back yesterday with the new ad.

[ Parent ]
Look at the broad range of polls (4.00 / 3)
It is easy to point to the worst poll for Obama, and panic as a result.

However, in the last couple of days, polls showing him ahead 7 and 12 points nationally also came out.

Look at the broad range of polls, which Pollster.com provides. According to that metric, Obama is doing very well. And that is  my point here.  

[ Parent ]
Yes, but Chris (4.00 / 1)
Those national polls were taken days ago. Before McCain's latest negative assault.

The Gallup tracker today is down to Obama +1, which means McCain must have beaten Obama by at least 2 points in last night's interviews.

His negative campaign is working.

[ Parent ]
No, they weren't (4.00 / 2)
Look at the dates. Two polls showing Obama ahead by 7% came out only day before the latest Gallup poll. You are seizing on the worst news because you want to panic.  
[ Parent ]
Jonathan Chait agrees with me (4.00 / 1)
From the LA Times:

McCain may be committing lots of blunders, but the blunders aren't hurting him because the spotlight is on Obama. McCain is getting attention for his attacks on Obama, especially his frequent insinuations that Obama lacks patriotism. The attacks are usually based on lies (such as McCain's discredited claim that Obama canceled a visit with wounded troops when he discovered the media couldn't tag along -- in fact, he canceled the visit, but the media were never scheduled to come).

Obama has barely hit back. His weak-tea replies express "disappointment" with McCain and reject the "same old politics."

Here's the likely rationale: The public, by a wide margin, wants a Democrat to win the presidency. So all Obama has to do is make himself acceptable and he'll win. Hence the focus on building up his own credentials rather than tearing down McCain.

Perhaps that sounds familiar. Let me refresh your memory: it was the John Kerry campaign strategy in 2004. Four years ago, the conventional wisdom had it that a majority of the voters would reject President Bush, so winning was just a matter of Kerry proving himself as an alternative. People "are looking for some change," one pollster put it at the time, "but the change has to be acceptable. John Kerry has to prove he is acceptable."

So rather than attack Bush, Kerry focused on defining himself. The Democratic National Convention was a model of civility and positive focus. The Republican National Convention, on the other hand, was a full-throated assault on Kerry. I don't need to remind you how it all turned out.


[ Parent ]
Wow (0.00 / 0)
Jonathan Chair agrees with you? Then you must be right.  
[ Parent ]
His points are valid (0.00 / 0)
Obama is running the same kind of campaign Kerry did in 2004. McCain is responding by running the same kind of campaign Bush did in 2004. We've already seen the result.

Obama is not going to win by staying positive. He needs to start running some negative ads against McCain. Saying "disappointment" and "same old politics" isn't going to cut it. He needs to put together a devastating 30-second ad or two that use McCain's own words against him. Lord knows that McCain has provided enough ammunition.

And there needs to be a strong, sustained attack on McCain at the Democratic convention. Hillary Clinton's keynote address would be a good place for it.

[ Parent ]
His points are qualitative (0.00 / 0)
And, as such, unprovable in either direction. If you really want to know where the campaign stands, look at the broad range of polls. You are not doing that. I'm not sure why, but maybe it is because you don't like the conclusion that current quantitative data provides: Obama is still significantly ahead.
[ Parent ]
No he's not (4.00 / 8)
His campaign is hitting back, and the McCain ads have been getting much backlash today.  Obama's "same old politics, same old policies" ad is very good because it goes after McCain's strength, which is his (largely unexamined) image of a maverick with integrity.  McCain's throwing that away right now, undermining his appeal.  

Obama is hitting back and campaigning on issues and making himself known to people.  He's hitting the fact that McCain has nothing positive to offer.  Obama has to be careful to modulate his attack so that people don't see him as a scary black man and make McCain seem like more of an underdog.  He has to keep subtly goading McCain into being a whiny old man (in $520 shoes).  Poeple have to understand that Obama is constrained in how aggressive he can appear to be by his race and also the fact that he wants to preserve his image as a "new kind of politician."  Remember losing that costs him, as it is now costing McCain.

I really believe that they are goading McCain to lash out and make mistakes, irritate the press etc. McCain can't keep it up for 3 more months without completely turning off voters.  Meanwhile Obama will subtly hit back, surrogates will hit back, and Obama will get in front of voters, and talk about the issues, on which majorities favor his position.  But his most important task right now is to get vpters comfortable with him and rebut the idea that he is a scary black man who can't be trusted.  

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
Right on (0.00 / 0)
Obama is hitting back harder than Kerry ever did. Often times Kerry didn't hit back at all. Remember Swift Boat, it took him weeks to get it together for a weak response. Obama is on it in a matter of hours. The press likes that, they can't resist manufactured conflict, it keeps the story alive. The narrative is Obama always defends himself, always hits back.

Obama is in the front runner position, he would be a fool to act like he's the challenger. He doesn't need to hit first all the time like McCain does. Obama's landing good shots every time he answers McCain's attacks. He's dancing outside McCain's range and keeping McCain angry and unbalanced.

Who says presidents are supposed to be humble anyway? Republican ads are over the top making candidates look like God, Jesus, John Wayne, Chuck Norris and Ted Nugent rolled up in one. Obama doesn't look overconfident to me, he looks a little worried. In the meantime everyone's watching McCain getting more snippy and negative and they're waiting to catch him boil over and blow his lid.

[ Parent ]
And the broad trend from his clinching the nomination... (4.00 / 1)
Is basically his lead dwindling... it goes down a bit, then rebounds slightly, but if it continues to do that then Obama will suddenly find himself behind again, struggling to eke out that "up a bit" portion to hit exactly on November 4th just as Kerry tried to do.  Unfortunately, Kerry came up just short.

If Gallup or Ras shows a lead for McCain in the next couple days, it won't be the first poll to show McCain ahead again any more.  I think that will indicate a potential problem, but we'll see.

The one thing that looks good to me is the fact that McCain still seems stuck in the low to mid 40s, but I'm not sure I trust those undecideds either.

[ Parent ]
I don't think that is the trend (4.00 / 2)
At least it isn't what I am seeing in the Pollster.com chart. Looks to me like McCain is entirely flat, and that Obama is up after a bad middle of July.
[ Parent ]
Thank You (0.00 / 0)
Chris, thank you for providing the numbers and the insight.  It's like a ray of sunshine on my computer. :)
[ Parent ]
Yep (4.00 / 2)
Back in 2004, the conventions were a key moment. Kerry tried to run a positive convention where no one was allowed to say anything bad about Bush, it was all about building Kerry up, and he got no bounce from it. The Republican convention, on the other hand, was a nonstop attack on Kerry, and Bush got a significant bounce from it. He never gave up his narrow lead after that.

Obama needs to go negative, now. Yes, he'll take a hit from it in the media, but if he tries to take the high road, he'll lose, just like Kerry did. We already know how this kind of campaign will turn out.

[ Parent ]
I agree (0.00 / 0)
But it really matters how he goes negative. He needs to aggressively criticize McCain for the kind of inconsistency that matters, for wanting to go to war with Iran, and for his total lack of economic policy.

John McCain's policies would be awful for America. I think it's entirely reasonable for the Obama campaign to try to make the public scared of them. They should be scared. I know I am.  

[ Parent ]
7 pt CNN lead at 51% overall is a problem how? (4.00 / 1)

[ Parent ]
Couldn't agree more (4.00 / 2)
Just watched msnbc and the lead story was McCain is closing....but the polls that they reported on showed a 7 point lead for Obama in PA (7 pts!! a state that was supposed to be up for grabs) and a 2 point lead for Obama in FL (a state that McCain was supposed to run away with) and a 2 point lead for Obama in Ohio (a 2 pt lead in the ultimate swing state...)(and isn't he ahead in Iowa, NM, Colo and VA???)

The story is "if he wasn't winning he would be losing" and like I have said before the media story could be much much worse. I will take it.

Those actually represent a swing of 4-7% from 2004 meaning... (4.00 / 1)
...they match the national average of a 2-4 point Obama lead.
People are such sheep! (0.00 / 0)
Five million dollars worth of unopposed television ads, combined with more than a dozen field offices in the state, can do that sort of thing.

Obviously I am glad Obama's ads are working, but I really have trouble believing that political ads work at all aside from reinforcing what people already believe.

Who watches on candidate's ads and is actually swayed by them? I know low-information voters, but don't they tend to be indies and cynical about government?

If they're cynical how does advertising actually work on them?

SHEEP!

We won the Battle. Now the Real Fight for Change Begins. Join MoveOn.org and fight for progressive change.  

All about the subliminal... (4.00 / 1)
No one thinks advertising works for ANYTHING, and yet it does.

Ads create an overall feeling (positive or negative) which, even if you consciously think is stupid, creates an impression.  If McCain is able to sort of plant the idea in people's heads that Obama is just a stupid celebrity who is in over his head, that will have a huge effect on people.

To be honest, I couldn't believe how stupid and childish the attacks seemed to be the last few days... but it apparently could be working, as the "Obama as uninformed celebrity" seems to be seeping in.

[ Parent ]
"rationality" (4.00 / 1)
You overestimate the degree to which people are aware of the reasons for their decisions. There's a growing body of evidence that most 'explanations' we give for our decisions are actually post hoc rationalizations - little stories we tell ourselves to explain our decisions - even on simple matters like why we get up to get a drink from the fridge. Political ads work by influencing our decision of who to vote for at a sub-rational level. Of course, later on we tell ourselves that ads had no effect on us... No one is immune to this phenomenon.

Of course, this has been the unstated premise of advertising for decades.

[ Parent ]
There's so much fodder for a negative ad (4.00 / 2)
I hope the Olympic ad buy highlights the "nation of whiners", "social security is a disgrace", Bush 3rd term, McCain ads are lies.  He needs to attack.

John McCain won't insure children
A general point about the media (4.00 / 5)
This just occurred to me recently.  Remember how in previous elections, we would complain about how Democrats (both on and off the record) were always kvetching to the media about how poorly the Kerry/Gore/whomever campaign was being run, and how this only fed into the portrayal of Democrats as losers, "Democrats divided," etc.?  Plus the flip side of that, where it seemed like the Republicans were always far more disciplined, never letting any real complaints of that sort leak out, etc.

Well, this time around, it's the polar opposite.  I can barely remember a peep from any Dems complaining about the Obama campaign--Matt recently linked to a story about unnamed Hill staffers complaining about the campaign's arrogance, but that's about all I can remember.  Meanwhile, Republicans of all stripes, including some former top McCain advisors (Murphy, Weaver), have been absolutely slamming his campaign in the media, and frequently on the record.

So maybe this is just proof of the banal point that the campaign who's winning will keep people on its side happy and supportive in the media, while the losing side can easily slide into a swamp of recrimination and backbiting.  The conventional wisdom used to be that it was all about Dems being divided and whiny while Repubs were united and disciplined, but that sure isn't how it's playing out this time around.  

Good point (0.00 / 0)
Very good point.  Obama's best argument about how he would be a competent President is how he runs his campaign.  McCain is a bad and undisciplined campaigner, his message is contradicted by the way it is presented, there are many GOP strategists who think they could do it better, some of them friends who think going Rove will sink him and don't mind telling people in the press that, and did I forget that the GOP is in disarray and way behind in fundraising?

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.
[ Parent ]
Go Negative (4.00 / 3)
This campaign is really starting to remind me of the 2004 campaign. Here, John McCain is going negative against Obama. Obama does not go negative against McCain. Obama's negatives goes up and then low and behold the Republicans successfully frame Obama in a negative light while the Dems fail at framing McCain. The goddamn thing happens every election. Obama has to start going on the offensive against McCain.

As far as the polling numbers are concerned, I'm not satisfied. Obama's numbers nationally and by state seem to be trending downwards. There's no good reason why this race should be as close as it is.

no one can be wrong about the way things seem... (0.00 / 0)
Obama's numbers nationally and by state seem to be trending downwards.

A good antidote to misperception is to actually look at the data. Fortunately, you can do this by going to pollster.com, or fivethirtyeight.com. These sights show that Obama is not trending downwards.

[ Parent ]
The McCain attacks haven't made an impact -- yet. (4.00 / 3)
The Kerry campaign didn't respond to the Swift Boat attacks, because they didn't have any impact on the polls -- until they did. By that time, it was too late to turn it around.

That said, the Obama campaign is light years ahead of Team Kerry, and Obama is the only charismatic candidate on the ballot. In 2004, Bush was charismatic and likeable (relatively speaking) and Kerry was a stiff.

Nonetheless, Team Obama does not inspire confidence in the Rapid Response department -- while McCain's flip flops on everything present a huge target.

Attack him there, and the MSM will be forced to admit that the McMaverick Straight Talk is pure bullshit.  

Media Narrative (4.00 / 1)
To the casual observer, you might think that these are good numbers for Obama. Not so, Grasshopper. At least according to the media. You see, the media narrative is that Obama has problems, thus, when the media looks at these results they say...

What's wrong with Obama, and why can't he close the deal?
The American public is just not sold on Barack Obama.
Are voters having buyers remorse on Barack Obama?
Does Obama have a problem with being presumptuous?
What does McCain need to do to convince voters that Obama is just not right?

etcetera, etc, etc...  

the media meta-criticism is half full (4.00 / 3)
You know, I understand this criticism of the media coverage, and I share it. But it's worth considering the reason the media has tended to view the campaign in this way. It's not just conservative bias; it's that this campaign is fundamentally about Obama. He is the dynamic candidate; the interesting candidate; the one whose election would be truly historic; who promises change; who is future-oriented; etc. McCain exists, basically, as Obama's foil in this campaign; he's not really his own entity, not to the same degree, at any rate.

For our side, that is a very good thing.

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen has Montana tied with leaners 47-47 (0.00 / 0)
Obama has lost his lead but this is still Montana.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Other numbers released today:

Texas 52-44 (McCain +8)

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Kentucky 49-39 (McCain +10)

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Those are swings of 15 and 10 points respectively from 2004.

Presidential Forecast, 7/31: Numbers and Gut Disconnect | 31 comments
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