Daily Tracking Polls for Saturday

by: Chris Bowers

Sat Aug 09, 2008 at 14:30


The daily tracking polls for Saturday directly contradict one another, with Obama up 2 in Gallup and down 2 in Rasmussen:

Gallup (8/6-8/8, 2,686 RVs, MoE 2, yesterday's number in parenthesis)
Obama: 47 (46)
McCain: 42 (43)

Rasmussen (8/6-8/8, 3,000 LVs, MoE 2, yesterday's results in parenthesis)
McCain: 47 (46)
Obama: 46 (47)

The national trend from Pollster.com shows Obama ahead by 2.4%, although that will probably eke up slightly with the addition of the new Gallup numbers (Rasmussen's numbers from tomorrow, not today, will be added into the average).

With a new poll yesterday, McCain's advantage in Missouri has grown to 2.8%, both in the four-poll average an in the regression trend line. In Michigan, where there was also a new poll yesterday, Obama's advantage has dropped to 3.2% in the four-poll average, and 5.4% in the regression trendline.

The state of the campaign continues to hover between a statistically significant Obama lead, and a statistically insignificant Obama lead. A complete, 50-state survey of the four-poll averages can be found at my Presidential Forecast, and a complete survey of regression trendlines can be found at Pollster.com.  
Chris Bowers :: Daily Tracking Polls for Saturday

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Daily Tracking Polls for Saturday | 2 comments
What I find interesting (4.00 / 1)
is that aside from Rasmussen and that screwy USA Today/Gallup LV poll, McCain hasn't cracked 45% since a single mid-July ABC poll.  Before that, you'd have to go back to June 12th to see him above 45%.

And yes, of course you can't cherry-pick polls. But if this "celebrity" bullshit is McCain's swiftboat, so far it hasn't worked too well.  Maybe 1 or 2 percent. And I just don't think that will be enough down the road.

Obama's new ads in OH and NV show that he is willing to hit hard on McCain's corruption and wrongheaded policies. And we all know that there is a WHOLE lot more where that came from. Those DNC ads from a few months ago, on the economy and "100 years", give you a taste.

If McCain gets nastier, or if some RNC groups starts running Rev. Wright ads, that will push Obama to get even tougher. And I just don't see McCain surviving if Obama were to really turn his guns on him full bore.

Not to mention the debates, where Stumblemouth McCain is walking into a minefield. Anything can happen, but right now Obama has a lot more upside and a lot less downside going forward.

5 pt lead in the tracking polls = electoral landslide (0.00 / 0)
seems plausible to me

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Daily Tracking Polls for Saturday | 2 comments
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