(Dark Blue (215): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (49): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (91): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (87): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (96): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, New Jersey, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia (2), Washington, and Wisconsin. the only category change is in Pennsylvania, which downgrades from "Solid Obama" to "Lean Obama." It should be noted that Adam B has a good piece on why recent Pennsylvania polling, which still shows Obama ahead with greater than 95% certainty, is far more pro-McCain than reality.
The campaign continues to change very little, although there has been an incremental shift toward McCain over the last six weeks. Overall, since Obama's late June peek, it seems that McCain has gained about 1-2% both nationally and across the state polls. Even though the McCain campaign is regularly lying, contradicting itself, and running a truly nasty campaign, he has largely been given a pass. The amount of cognitive dissonance in the media coverage of McCain has reached Bush first term levels. The good thing is that Obama still leads despite it. Still, The coming VP picks and conventions will be absolutely key--much more important than the debates.
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
For each state, take the last four polls conducted for the state, and average them.
If more than four polls were conducted in the state over the previous thirty days, all polls conducted during that time period are included in the averages.
If polling dates overlap, and make it difficult to determine which polls were the four most recent, include all of the overlapping polls.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation. Also, if a polling firm has conducted more than one of the most recent four polls, all of the polls from that organization are included.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease.
As an anti-spam measure, there is a 24-hour waiting period after registering before new users can comment. blog advertising is good for you
blog advertising is good for you
