McCain Goes Off The Deep End-Is Anyone Watching?

by: Paul Rosenberg

Thu Aug 14, 2008 at 15:15


In the last few days--as the confrontation between Georgia and Russia has flared-the McCain campaign has visibly slipped into wildly dangerous territory.  The "McSame" label clearly no longer applies-McCain would not be like Bush's third term, he'd be much more like Cheney, completely unleashed.  

Over at TPM, the temperamentally restrained Josh Marshall has been writing about this quite alot. For example:

Dangerous and Unstable

I know I've made this point in various ways in several posts over the last day or so. But watching John McCain speak about the Georgian crisis in the video below should deeply worry anyone interested in a sane US foreign policy -- or the safety of their children....

The people that are pulling McCain's strings are the people who want to push us into a new Cold War with the Russians -- and ironically and a bit improbably with the Chinese too....

McCain is going out of his way to cast this as a replay of 1938 and 1939. Is it really in our interest to get into a renewed Cold War with Russia right now? ....

It's sort of funny when he's just an unhinged senator. But think for a moment where we'd be if this man were president right now, as he may well be in six months. This man takes the counsel of the people who got us into the Iraq War. On foreign policy, he is in league with the people who were so extreme they've now largely been kicked out of the Bush administration. People like John Bolton and others like him.

It's beyond Obama or political strategy or dinging McCain on this or that policy.

This man is simply too dangerous and unstable to be president. People need to wake up and get a look of the preview he's giving us of a McCain presidency. [Emphasis added]

In order to fully grasp what he's up too, there are five analytical frameworks that are particularly helpful to employ.  I'm going to write about them more extensively this weekend.  But this is unfolding now and it deserves a lot sharper attention than it's been getting so far.  So a brief summary of the five frameworks is on the flip.

Paul Rosenberg :: McCain Goes Off The Deep End-Is Anyone Watching?
Five Frameworks For Viewing McCain's Fanning The Flames vs. Russia

(1) The Republican's "October Surprise". Named for a long-suspected, and now virtually certain clandestine plot by the 1980 Reagan/Bush campaign to prevent the release of American hostages by Iran prior to the 1980 election, thus ensuring Jimmy Carter's defeat. A similar effort by Richard Nixon, to sabotage the 1968 Paris Peace Talks, and prevent the election of Hubert Humphrey, has been solidly confirmed.  Thus, deliberate interference in foreign affairs by the McCain campaign would be part of an established pattern of GOP lawlessness in manipulating the outcome of presidential elections, and there is increasing reason to think that McCain's campaign-or at least individuals associated with it-played a role in precipitating this crisis. They are certainly involving themselves in keeping it alive.

(2) The "Bush Dyslexicon" analysis.  In 2001, Mark Crispin Miller published The Bush Dyslexicon: Observations on a National Disorder, in which he argued that Bush's difficulty in expressing himself coherently ("I know how hard it is to put food on your family," etc.) was confined to subjects he was not really interested in.  When it came to what he cared about-primarily sports and hurting people-he was routinely quite lucid.  The same appears to apply to McCain, as he has suddenly become quite sharp and highly focused following a long period in which he has appeared increasingly "Dazed and Confused" as TPM titled a recent vidoe compilation of his visible disorientation.

(3) The comfortable Cold Warrior.  McCain's long-time hostility to Russia-even after the collapse of the Soviet Union-is indicative of mindset frozen in the Cold War Era.  While there are certainly others whose experience in that era has limited their ability to adapt to the post-Cold War world, the recent events serve as a powerful reminder that McCain is one of the most deeply tied to that era, and the most incapable of adjusting to the world as it has been now for almost the last 20 years.

(4) The Neocon's Agenda for world dominance.  Because the neocon adventure in Iraq has turned out so disasterously, most people fail to appreciate that Iraq was supposed to be a cakewalk, and that the neocon's real primary targets are China and Russia.  Although not strictly a neocon-his attitudes derive more from the imperialist naval doctrine that animated the birth of America's "Great White Fleet" 100 years ago-McCain has been a neocon darling since 1999-2000 campaign, when he was their favorite far more than George W. Bush.

(5) "Rogue State Rollback" is the specific neocon formulation McCain embraced in the 1990s for rationalizing and selling the world dominance agenda.  As a justification, it is far more durable and adaptable than misdirecting blame for 9/11, which can probably only be done one or two more times.  The situation with Russia and Georgia is only a slight variant on that formulation.


If liberals and Democrats had actually been fighting the Gramscian "culture war" the right has been fighting for the past 30 years, you'd be hearing a lot about McCain in terms of these five frameworks.  But as things stand, only the last three are likely to get any play at all, and it will quite a struggle to get even those pushed from the blogosphere into the Versailles media-even with someone like Andrew Sullivan solidly on the case.  In fact, the comfortable Cold Warrior framework is probably the only one with a chance to get any sort of real hearing.

Maybe we can get Paris Hilton to do an ad about it.


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the way things feel (4.00 / 2)
There was this really frightening vertiginous feeling in this country from about 2002-2006, or even going back to the stolen election of 2000 - a sense that we were just crazily off-course, sliding into imperial overreach, and the notion of the U.S. as a Republic seemed genuinely threatened. Then the Democrats won in 2006 and I, for one, felt a huge sense of relief that our democratic institutions were still self-correcting. And the Obama candidacy, while far from ideal, has suggested promise that the national slide is perhaps reversing itself.

But imagine if McCain wins. It won't even be a return to the madness of the early part of this decade - it will mean a real endorsement, by the people of this country, of the insane course we were headed on at that time. It will be a continuation of that national decline. It really would be even more depressing than the 2004 election.

Thank God McCain isn't going to win.


I Think It Started Even Earlier, Tho (4.00 / 1)
The Clinton impeachment hysteria was pretty crazily off-course, if you ask me.

Remember when the media was in an uproar before his 1998 SOTU, speculating about how he was going to resign?  And he went on and gave probably his most effective SOTU, and raised his approval to over 60%?

There's a reason I refer to them as Versailles.  It's not that I wish them all beheaded, but simply that they're so insular and so perversely out of touch that I can't not think of Versailles.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Iran/Contra - The Invisible Scandal (4.00 / 1)
That a sitting President and Vice President could get away with such shenanigans and not be held to any account, anywhere pretty much convinced me that the political system in this nation does not actually deal with the power centers in the nation.  Its basically a sham.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
True (4.00 / 1)
But the madness wasn't total then.  There was some accountability, and a lifelong Republican prosecutor was leading the charge.

It was bad, all right.  But nothing compared to the complete inversions of reality that were to come.

What was more problematic--and indicative of what was to come--was the way that related scandals were insulated from it.  The Contra drug-running was mentioned during congressional testimony, but then ignored.  The fact that the arms flow began before the cut-off of funds--the crucial connection to the then un-investigated October Surprise--was likewise ignored.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
That fact that they got away with it lead to greater crimes (4.00 / 1)
and greater hubris. In my opinion.

At least Nixon was run out of town!  These guys got elected again and adored by the media.



"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
The Cold War (0.00 / 0)
Can't live with it, can't live without it.  Go McCain!!!!!!!!!!!!  What threat do I make about the election if I've already moved out of the country? :)

In seriousness, though, is there some backup for #1?  I find it on the surface a bit conspiratorial,  but then, so are a lot of things that turn out to be true these days.


[ Parent ]
Links Will Be Provided In The Weekend Diaries (4.00 / 2)
Oh, all right.  For Nixon's antics, see my diary, "Patriotism Smackdown: 'Hanoi Jane' vs. Tricky Dick (Hegemony Is The Enemy Special Report--Pt4)".  For the October Surprise, see my diary, "The Moray Eels Eat The Bipartisan Democrats".  There are links in both diaries to off-site source material.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
oh you get me wrong (0.00 / 0)
i know the history :)  it's the mccain - georgia link I'm looking for.

[ Parent ]
Oh! Sorry! (4.00 / 3)
Well, this is still somewhat murky, and I'm going to see what more I can dig up and put together to clarify it.  But TPM has links to various stories that provide a good starting point.

Generally speaking it's difficult to know these things for certain as they're unfolding, which is one reason I cite the past examples.

One of the key give-aways with the October Surprise happened right up front, when the Iranians released the hostages on the very day that Reagan was inaguarated.  It was like, no cover story at all, just right out there as bold as you please. As soon as that happened, I went, "Wait a second!  That's just toooo obvious.  How is it that no one's going to start asking questions about that?"  Well, some people did, but it was mostly other people like me.

This time around it's the cozy relationship between McCain, Scheunemann and Saakashvili, and the timing of the Georgian aggression.  It really makes no sense unless it's predicated on succeding despite all appearances to the contrary.   And why should they succeed given the circumstances?  Only if there were a secret plan of some sort. Right now my working theory is that there may have been multiple double-crosses, or simply false expectations.

It's quite possible that McCain as well as Saakashvili thought the US was going to step in.  Or it's possible that both knew it wouldn't happen. Or Saakashvili may have been duped by McCain. All are possibilities. But it's perfectly normal that we should not know the real story at this point.  Informed speculation is the best we can hope for right now, but that's not chopped liver.  It can serve to direct our questioning, and that in turn can eventually lead to the truth.

As I said, more details, more links on the weekend.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Cozy Relationship (0.00 / 0)
.
The BTC pipeline is important for future expansion through Israel to the Mediterranean. Needs good security and training of Georgian troops. Effect of Iran policy and war in Caucasus.

[ Parent ]
the trouble i have with buying this one is (0.00 / 0)
a) it's not october :)
b) it failed spectacularly.
c) mccain, i think, may have less power with the white house and/or other top republican strategists, which is constrained by a lot of things and I get the feeling has mixed feelings.  probably not vicious/machiavellian enough.  or they know he's a losing candidate so aren't going to invest a lot.
d) the u.s. is extraordinarily constarined.
e) wars for democracy is not exactly a popular option in the u.s. these days so it might be a long-run ideological battle that mccain would want ot fight (poorly strategized here) but it doesn't seem to help campaign chances.
f) i honestly don't think they're competent enough to execute an "october surprise" effectively, though some of their "friends" like Karl Rove and Dick Cheney surely are.

The only thing I see which is really powerful for McCain here is that it revives the cold war politics (which does help mccain a lot probably, in myriad ways).

Again, like you said, speculation is all we have for now, so this is mine :)  Look forward to the weekend posts!


[ Parent ]
i should add that i'm frequently wrong about this kind of thing (0.00 / 0)
the conspiracies that turn out to be true, i mean.  call it naivete.

[ Parent ]
Well, Who Ever Said That McCain Was Competent? (0.00 / 0)
All your points are well-taken but one--I think there were good reasons to do it now rather than October.  But as for the rest, I agree completely.

McCain & the neocons are deeply incompetent, and totally clueless about what it takes to pull this stuff off.  But the Versailles press is so well-trained at this point, that there's still a chance it wouldn't matter.  A totally failed operation could still leave everyone so angry and confused that if Versailles is just pointed in the right direction, they could still pull this off politically (i.e. elect McCain) even if it's a fiasco militarily. (Sorry about that, Georgia.)

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
You say dangerous and unstable, (4.00 / 1)
I say serious and manly.

Several good posts about McCain (0.00 / 0)
Josh Marshall has linked to most of them, so they can be found by scrolling down at TPM.  A couple more today at TPM Cafe.  Also Kevin Drum.

There is starting to be some good pushback, especially about Randy Scheuneman and his possible role in egging Georgia on to foment a crisis.  I'm not so sure all of the Bushies were in on this, and I'd be very pissed if I were Condi Rice and wasn't.  

I think this is one instance where the ignorance of the press makes them fall back on the more outspoken GOPers because they sound like they know what they are talking about, even if they are batshit crazy.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.


Whatever Happened To The "Strong Silent Type"??? (4.00 / 1)
God, I hated that phrase when I was a kid.

But it sounds so goooood right now in comparison to the loudmouthed beligerant idiots who tend to get all the press these days.

"Strong" is the one thing they definitely are not.  Insisting that other people die so you can feel good is not a sign of strength.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Amen (0.00 / 0)
I'm going to be away from a computer this weekend (as it seems like I have been almost every weekend for months) but I shall read your postings early next week with enthusiasm.

From this synopsis it looks like you're going to hit the nail right on the head.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog


That's Right (0.00 / 0)
You Europeans have things like vacations, paid sick leave, and now even weekends!

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
McCain Georgia Link via Lobbyist (4.00 / 2)
.
h/t to Frank Schnittger

Georgia War a Neocon Election Ploy?

Is it possible that this time the October surprise was tried in August, and that the garbage issue of brave little Georgia struggling for its survival from the grasp of the Russian bear was stoked to influence the U.S. presidential election?

McCain's foriegn policy adviser Randy Scheunemann is at the center of the neoconservative cabal that has come to dominate the Republican candidate's foreign policy stance in a replay of the run-up to the war against Iraq. These folks are always looking for a foreign enemy on which to base a new Cold War.

    Scheunemann also played a key role in lining up support for the invasion from the "Vilnius Ten," a group of former Soviet bloc countries seeking to gain entry to NATO, some of whom Scheunemann has worked as a paid lobbyist on behalf of. With his partner Bruce Jackson, a Lockheed Martin executive, Scheunemann reportedly gave assurances to the Ten that backing the Iraq invasion would help their chances for NATO membership.

See my diary @BooMan - George Bush and His Legacy: the Georgian Airlift


Scheunemann (0.00 / 0)
The important thing to realize about Scheunemann is that he seems to be very much about the money.  The neocon nexus has always included a lot of quid pro quo, with the emphasis on the quid, and Scheunemann seems to exemplify that.

He's not just involved with Georgia as their chief lobbyist, he also played a role with Abramoff's firm when McCain was looking into tribal lobbying affairs.  Very much a both-sides-of-the-street kind of guy, but in the Versailles insider sense, not the bipartisan sense.

Ironic, really, if he turns out to be McCain's Achilles heel, rather than Vicki Iseman.

One can only hope.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
I still don't think McCain is the real GOP candidate... (0.00 / 0)
I got a conspiracy theory he will be 'replaced' for medical reasons. Probably before November, but possibly after. Personally I hope it happens before because if it happens after he is elected then we really aren't going to like his replacement (someone along the lines of Dick Cheney).

He owes his candidacy to the neocons already.

End this war. Stop John McCain. Cindy McCain is filthy rich.


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