(Dark Blue (215): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (49): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (91): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (87): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (96): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Colorado (2), Maine, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Ohio since the last front-page update. While there are no category changes, as you can see from the swing state chart below, Obama's lead is now virtually non-existent:
For a long time, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia have been the three key swing states in this campaign (Nevada is a close fourth). In order to win, Obama has always needed either only one of those three, or Nevada plus a victory in the House of Representatives. Right now, Obama's position is as precarious in those three states as it has been in at least three months, and probably five months. His lead in Colorado is only 0.4%. Both Ohio and Virginia are dead heats. Also, McCain leads by 1.0% in Nevada.
The good news for Obama is that McCain still doesn't lead in any of those three states, even though he would have to sweep them all in order to win. Also, a backdoor path to victory exists by winning two of three in Alaska, Montana and North Dakota. While I show McCain narrowly ahead in Alaska and Montana, Pollster.com actually shows Obama narrowly ahead in both. So, throw on a few more swing states that McCain has to sweep in order to eek out the narrowest of victories.
With the conventions and the VP nominations, the biggest opportunity for movement in this campaign--for both sides--comes over the next three weeks. As big as the debates are, they won't quite compare to eight nights of prime time coverage, plus two veep selections. It is bitterly disappointing that Obama is not ahead by more entering this crucial three week stretch, but I guess we will see where things stand one month from now. The campaign begins full force now.
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology I will update at least once every day between now and November 4th. The methodology is simple and straightforward.
For each state, take the last four polls conducted for the state, and average them.
If more than four polls were conducted in the state over the previous thirty days, all polls conducted during that time period are included in the averages.
If polling dates overlap, and make it difficult to determine which polls were the four most recent, include all of the overlapping polls.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation. Also, if a polling firm has conducted more than one of the most recent four polls, all of the polls from that organization are included.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease.
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