Going into the final days, Mr. Obama was said to be focused mainly on three candidates: Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware.
This three-person short list is narrowed even further by Steve Clemmons, who claims that Bayh has not been chosen due to opposition from the activist base:
But sources close to Obama report to me that after the "surge of concern" on the net about Evan Bayh, he has not been selected as Obama's VP running mate.
If that is true, and there is good reason to think that it is true, stopping Evan Bayh is probably the only major impact the netroots had on Obama's selection. Well, it is better than nothing.
The circumstantial evidence that points to Biden includes his trip to Georgia, Obama giving him a shout out earlier today for said trip, and a key Biden advisor traveling with Obama to Hawaii. Plus, a lot of wankers think that is is Biden, mainly because they still believe in "balance" picks.
The circumstantial evidence for Kaine includes that he is not yet slotted to speak at the convention, that Obama will be in Virginia tomorrow, that a line of succession meeting has been convened in Virginia, and that three of the seven candidates Obama vetted for his short list are from Virginia.
From where I sit, the weight of "evidence" favors Kaine, and does so by a good long way. Then again, Virginia Dems have been pushing so improbably hard to score a VP, that they will look awfully foolish if it ends up being Biden.
Kaine's positives are that he is from Virginia, worked as an urban housing rights lawyer, speaks Spanish, was an extremely early Obama supporter, and opposed the war from the start. His negatives are that he has governed ineffectively, has not been strong on messaging (even on Iraq), and seems pretty right-wing.
Biden's strengths are that he is familiar with the national media, has recent Georgia cred, is an excellent debater, is a tough attack dog, won't become the Democratic favorite in the next presidential nomination campaign, and is generally in the middle of the Democratic Party. His negatives are that he supported the war from the start, muddles the change message because he has been in the Senate for 36 years, is often known as representing MBNA instead of Delaware, including his support for the bankruptcy bill.
I don't think it is an entirely clear choice. Biden would almost certainly be a better campaigner and a better president, but Kaine is far more a reinforcing pick than Biden. I have been pushing the reinforcing idea since the start of the year, so it is hard to turn away now.
Update: I seem to have screwed up the poll. Oh well. Sorry about that. |
