Brilliant Tremayne (4.00 / 1)

Brilliant.

This is exactly right.  It will be Kaine (or Warner) or else Hillary Clinton.

I'm leaning toward Clinton at this point.

---

by: Nudge @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:12:59 AM CDT

Maybe... (4.00 / 2)

...but I can't help but wonder if the stars aren't aligning for Wes Clark.

Certainly, he'd hit both the "experience" and the "outsider" marks, plus he's one person who could creditably go after McCain on his military war-hero image...and has shown no reluctance to do so in the past.

One thing's for sure:  Obama better pick a good "attack dog" who can put McCain on the defensive, or he better resign himself to getting nibbled away at for the remainder of the election the same way he has over the past month or so...and it won't be pretty.

---

by: regnaD kciN @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:59:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I really hope you're right (4.00 / 2)

But I don't think it's going to be Clark.  I'm just hoping that it won't be Kaine or Bayh.  I'm discovering the best way to not be disappointed by Obama is to keep my expectations low.

sigh.

I'm glad it's done

---

by: gearmonkey @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 06:02:01 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Clark and Bayh have been crossed from the list. (4.00 / 1)

At least that's what I've read (from people quoting Steve Clemmons?)

But why not Sebelius? I think if he announces Thursday while he's in Virginia, it will be Warner or Kaine. If he announces Friday, it will be Sebelius or someone completely unexpected.

There's no way it will be Clinton. No one will motivate the Republican base to show up at the polls like Hillary. The Republicans know that. They are begging for her to be on the ticket. Do you think Hannity gives Dems advice because he wants them to win? Hillary has high negatives, and she hasn't even been attacked yet during this campaign. Republicans laid off her because they preferred to face her in the general. Obama laid off her once he had it mathematically sewed up because he didn't want to alienate her supporters. If she is on the ticket, Bill's library donors will be a whole new Whitewater, and Bill's sexcapades will be talked about on TV constantly. Picking Hillary is a trap. Obama's not that stupid. It will never happen.

miasmo.com

---

by: miasmo @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:00:43 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

while I'm slightly confused as to how this is a response to my comment, (0.00 / 0)

I think Sebelius would an acceptable choice.  I think she'd make a decent VP, though i worry about her ability to go on the attack.  Also, I don't know anything about her likely successor in Kansas, but the fact that she's not a Dem senator is probably a plus (since there's no way she would lower the number of Dems in the Senate)  

I'm glad it's done

---

by: gearmonkey @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:48:18 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I guess just the part about (0.00 / 0)

Clark and Biden was responsive to your comment directly. Then I went off on a tangent.  :-)

miasmo.com

---

by: miasmo @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:03:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I couldn't disagree more (0.00 / 0)

Clinton is his best choice. Even Poblano thinks that Clinton could give Obama and immediate 10-15 point bounce. Obama is soft soft soft in the democratic base and no one will consolidate them like Hillary.

I am more than willing to see the Republicans consolidate their "base" which is in strong decline. What we NEED is a consolidated democratic base and unfortunately Obama doesn't seem to be able to get that particular job done.

The primaries were a contentious but exciting time. I think that an Obama/Clinton ticket would bring that energy back and consolidate the party in a way no other ticket would.

Shit I would welcome attacks on Hillary, it would let Obama take the high road the way he likes and she could do her "I'm a fighter thing" and get the women swing voter flowing in by the truckload.

Some think Hillary could put Florida strongly in play.  

---

by: faust @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:11:14 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Obama's down by 5 points (4.00 / 1)

As Reuters is reporting that Obama is down by 5 points after a week of McCain attacks, no one can deny that we REALLY need an attack dog against the republican smear machine. We need a bad cop to play against Obama's good cop.

(p.s. I'm still hoping for Hillary or Wes. But I'll be happy with Biden. Bayh is weak and won't do anything for Obama.)

---

by: cece248 @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:54:57 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

i can deny. (0.00 / 0)

We need a candidate to stand up for himself and for Democratic Values, to stand up for his fellow Democrats and to choose a VP on the only value that matters - the person most capable of assuming the office of the President in the wake of the most awful tragedy imaginable.

Everything else is just crap and window dressing.

We need our nominee to take up the fight from the left, not sliding to the center and conceding ground with every passing day.

If the VP nominee has backbone and will take it to the R's, the side effect that matters is that it will force the nominee to get his/her back and stand with them.

I believe Chris Dodd is the right choice for the job, I will support the Democratic Nominee and whichever running mate he chooses with my vote in November.

---

by: mp @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:40:15 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

It is not going to be Clark (0.00 / 0)

Obama is going to pick someone he is not only familiar but comfortable with.  John Kerry told him that the number one thing to consider in a VP is someone you can trust.  (Kerry did not feel he could trust Edwards, as it turned out.)

Obama has no relationship with Wes Clark.  None. it is going to be someone he knows from the Senate or from a nearby state, like Sibelius, or knows from past dealings.  It is not going to be someone with as thin a political background as Clark and with whom Obama has no relationship.

I think that if Obama had his druthers, he'd pick Sibelius or maybe Kaine.  But he is not 10 points ahead, as everyone seems to want to remind each other.  He is very close, and so can't take a chance on a woman (too much change) or someone with even less governmental experience than he.

So Biden is the most likely.  Not Hillary mostly becauae of Bill.  They come as a team and Bill just keeps praising McCain and giving Obama the back of his hand, because he knows it isn't Hillary.

Sources told Marc Ambinder it wasn't Bayh or Daschle.  I suppose it could be Kerry or Gore, but right now I'm thinking Biden.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

---

by: Mimikatz @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 11:59:06 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maybe they're buying time (4.00 / 2)

and trying to persuade someone on the fence (such as Warner) to accept the nomination.  Otherwise I would agree that a Friday/Saturday announcement would be strange.

Even crazier still, maybe they'll wait until Saturday, then back off for yet a few more days, and announce Clinton at the convention, sucking up all of McCain's oxygen in the process.  Obviously that's unlikely to happen, but no one knows what's going on.

---

by: rfahey22 @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:16:21 AM CDT

I doubt it would be Clinton .. (4.00 / 1)

the reich wing would immediately ramp up(and the only way to deflate that balloon would be for McCain to pick Ridge or HoJo) .. and not only that .. what about Clinton's dealing overseas .. have they vetted all that? .. since we know the Rethugs will be snooping around .. trying to exploit the smallest thing .. if he picks her .. maybe he's planned for all of it .. I just don't think she's the one

---

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:27:51 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't know. (4.00 / 2)

If he improves to 90% Democratic support, wouldn't he be able to steamroll McCain regardless of whether it energizes his base?  The numbers are our favor this time around.  I think that they should at least explore the idea.

---

by: rfahey22 @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:31:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

yes (4.00 / 1)

a fairly recent poll said the only place Obama was performing worse than Kerry was among Democrats.

---

by: tremayne @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:34:41 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sad, isn't it? (4.00 / 5)

McCain has spit in the eye of conservatives time and time again, and they still are going to rally around him...  yet, Democrats, once again, will cut off their nose to spite their face...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

---

by: lord_mike @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:45:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Some Democrats are racists. (4.00 / 3)

Putting Hillary on the ticket is not going to change that.

miasmo.com

---

by: miasmo @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:02:51 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

That is what I don't know ... (4.00 / 1)

I presume Obama has done polling ... I know it is irrational .. but there is a lot of Clinton hate out there .. and there will be people Obama turns off if he were to pick her .. so I am sure they have figured it all out

---

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:36:09 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Both she and Bill could immediately go on the Sunday shows and attack, though (4.00 / 6)

The advantage of a 'unity' ticket is that Clinton will be as distant from Obama as a VP nominee possibly can.  This gives her near impunity to go on the attack without hurting him.

---

by: Valatan @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:32:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hillary and Bill can... (4.00 / 3)

...go on the Sunday shows and support their parties nominee whenever they choose, they could take on the smears of the right whenever they wish, they can stand up and support their party with all the strength they have...neither of them needs to be on the ticket to do so.  They should do it anyway, because it is the right thing to do.  I'm not holding my breath though.

---

by: mp @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:43:44 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

The problem isn't the right (0.00 / 0)

As the latest polling shows, Obama's problem isn't the right, its the left. He still is not getting full support from his own base. There are very few people who could help Obama with this problem - and Hillary is one of them.

---

by: cece248 @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:58:31 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Depends on what you mean by "base" (0.00 / 0)

His lowest demographics are older white voters.  Women support him by a higher percentage than Kerry.  I think it's older voters and pockets of white working class voters for whom race is an issue.  I think he needs someone to reassure older Dem voters but not necessarily a woman.  The C-SPAN crowd loves Biden, and his attacks would please the combat-loving part of the base (many of the folks here).

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

---

by: Mimikatz @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:04:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Would there be a way to use the balloting at the convention (0.00 / 0)

to stage a 'compromise' that settles the nomination by placing Clinton in the VP spot?  Could this be an effort to use the floor vote at the convention as the means to do grand dtheatrics?  Probably not.

---

by: Valatan @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:30:58 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Might make Obama look weak as if he did not have the clout to have the person he wanted. (4.00 / 4)

Might also be considered a compromised ticket, and many Obama supporters who do not like Hillary would see her as absolutely Machiavellian and destroying the ticket. Further more, if Obama somehow lost and it appeared that Clinton forced her way on the ticket, she would get most of the blame and that would destroy her politically.

I don't expect to see that, though it would definitely get all the gossip press (I mean MSM) focused.

Help support "CRASHING THE STATES"--a Netroots Film!

---

by: Reality Bites Back @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:22:12 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bad Idea Bear (4.00 / 2)

Organizing a floor vote is hard enough, especially one this close. It's not the place for theatrics. It's the place to get it absolutely right.

Hillary conceded, but the fact is, if all her delegates vote for her (as they should) and some of Obama's fail to show up or fail to perform correctly, Hillary could actually win the floor vote, which would make this convention a bigger disaster than '72.

---

by: ergotist @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 02:00:41 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Impossible. (0.00 / 0)

Hillary isn't going to submit her name for a floor vote.

According to her, anyway.

---

by: BradODonnell @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 13:35:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

OK (0.00 / 0)

Well, good for her then.

---

by: ergotist @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 13:58:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

McCain has no place to go (4.00 / 3)

He's already announced that that he's announcing his VP on the Friday before Labor Day. People are going to come back to work on Tuesday and ask "When is McCain going to pick his VP? He did already? Who? Governor Paul Enty? [pffft]

Canton is on the list as a counter to Kaine/Warner. If it's Sebelius (as I think is likely) then McCain has no counter. Sebelius will make McCain look like a jackass fifty ways to Sunday when he starts talking about choice and Ledbetter and women voters will flee McCain in droves.

John McCain

---

by: joejoejoe @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:43:30 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

don't underestimate (4.00 / 1)

Gov. Enty.

---

by: tremayne @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:45:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

the counter to Sebelius is Sarah Palin (0.00 / 0)

---

by: Valatan @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:51:37 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Palin (4.00 / 2)

I think she's in the middle of some ethics trouble in Alaska. It's ongoing stuff so I don't think there is anyway for it not to become an issue.  Palin may have had a former brother-in-law an Alaska state trooper fired...or not. Maybe it's small potatoes but I don't think Palin has ever been truly under consideration. She looks like McCain's granddaughter and has less experience than Obama.

http://www.adn.com/news/alaska...

John McCain

---

by: joejoejoe @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:02:41 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Unfortunately, she recently had a baby (0.00 / 0)

born with Down's Syndrome.  I really don't think she is going to want to put her family through a nationwide campaign right now.

---

by: askew @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:05:04 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Counter to Sibelius is (4.00 / 1)

Meg Whitman,.  Seriously.  They want her to run for CA Governor, but evidently some people think she's also ready for stand-in to a 72-year old C in C with a POW history and all that means for his health.  

Frankly, anyone but Lieberman puts the "experience" issue into play for the GOP ticket.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

---

by: Mimikatz @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:07:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't know (4.00 / 1)

1) She's a billionaire. She might highlight the focus on the Republican focus on the rich
2) Ebay doesn't make anything. They are a reseller. I'm not sure that Ebay is the sexy futuristic tech company they think it is. It's basically a search engine + a tag sale.

But you are correct, she is in the mix for VP and a big player in GOP politics.

John McCain

---

by: joejoejoe @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 16:11:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

But remember .. (0.00 / 0)

Kerry introduced Edwards in Pittsburgh .. so VA doesn't mean anything .. hell .. doesn't Clark list VA as his official residence? .. and who in Illinois even remembers/realizes that Hillary was born there? .. if the announcement is in Springfield .. that's just symbolic on Obama's part .. since he announced his own candidacy there .. I don't think it is Kaine .. but otherwise .. I don't know .. I'd be hard pressed to understand why Warner would give up a slam dunk Senate seat .. especially since he supposedly wanted to stay close to his young kids .. and not subject them to the campaign travels

---

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:22:00 AM CDT

who in IL? (4.00 / 2)

I think all of us in Illnois are acutely aware that Hillary C was borne in our state.

---

by: Ron in Chicago @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 02:49:14 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Please refrain from further use of ellipses. (4.00 / 1)

It's quite distracting.

---

by: BradODonnell @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 13:40:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sebelius is in Iowa on Thursday (4.00 / 1)

Gov. Sebelius is stumping for Obama in central Iowa on Thursday. It's about a 5 hour drive or short flight from Springfield, IL. I thought it was her in the beginning and I still think it's going to be her.

http://iowaindependent.com/417...

John McCain

---

by: joejoejoe @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:27:33 AM CDT

the only thing pointing (4.00 / 3)

to Sebelius at this point is that nothing has been pointing to her. Given her early frontrunner status (at least online) it would be quite an accomplishment for her to now be a surprise pick.

---

by: tremayne @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:44:08 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

not "nothing" (4.00 / 2)

http://www.tribbleagency.com/?...

Result of some people snooping for the registration of domain names, like "obamakaine.com" or "obamasebelius.com".

obamasebelius.com has its registrant hidden, and has the same registrant and DNS as barackobama.com.

Although I think Biden has a good shot if the person who's registered it is an Obama supporter or shell.

War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength; McCain/Palin 2008

---

by: cheesehead @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:10:49 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Color me nonplussed. (0.00 / 0)

Consider obamaclark.com (operated by some of our OpenLefters).  It's just as convincing a a match to barackobama.com as obamasebelius.com is.

The fact of the matter is this: GoDaddy is the dominant registrar, Domains By Proxy is the go-to service for masking the registrant, and NS_.DomainControl.com is a default server type for GoDaddy.  Nothing to see here ...

---

by: eustiscg @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:52:44 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Aw... (0.00 / 0)

I can always have a little audacity and hope! ;-)

War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength; McCain/Palin 2008

---

by: cheesehead @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:22:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Political Wire says this was disproven... (0.00 / 0)

Someone e-mailed them and said that they owned the domain and were not associated with the Obama campaign.  It's probably not worth reading into domain name registrations to figure this out.

---

by: leshrac55 @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 13:35:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Iowa would be a great place to announce the VP pick. (0.00 / 0)

---

by: askew @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:08:28 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Or maybe (4.00 / 8)

none of this means anything and we'll know when we know.

---

by: illissius @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 00:40:15 AM CDT

indeed (4.00 / 1)

I'm glad it's done

---

by: gearmonkey @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 06:23:18 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Let's Just Admit What We All Already Know (4.00 / 3)

It's Oprah.

---

by: ergotist @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:56:32 AM CDT

Still hoping for Biden (0.00 / 0)

I don't think the VP candidates know if they are in or out, and Biden was just lowering expectations for himself.

It's like a big Hollywood actor showing up at the Oscars and saying "yeah, I'm not gonna win" just to be humble and superstitious. They don't know if they will win or not -- it hasn't been announced.

I'm pulling for Biden, but as long as it's not Bayh I'm cool.

---

by: existenz @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 02:16:52 AM CDT

And really (0.00 / 0)

If you were on tenterhooks about the VP announcement isn't golf something you WOULD Do (if you were a golfer)?  Get away from the TV, the net, out in the fresh air, get some exercise . . . .

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

---

by: Mimikatz @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:09:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

SMS Text Messages.... (0.00 / 0)

1. We hear from multiple reporters that the VP will be announced, via text, on Friday evening, followed by a Saturday rally in Springfield, Illinois.

Obama's campaign sure is sending a lot of text messages. I'm on their txt list and get at least two a week. They also seem to be trying their hardest to get as many people to sign up to receive them as possible. Seeing as how SMS is run by a private proprietary company I can't help but wonder how much the Obama campaign is spending simply on SMS alone. The $ amount has got to be pretty damn high by now.

Smart strategy though and worth it IMHO.

End this war. Stop John McCain. Cindy McCain is filthy rich.

---

by: wiretapp @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 02:44:02 AM CDT

They're harvesting cell numbers (4.00 / 4)

with the text gimmick.

---

by: Susan S @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 05:31:02 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

So I have a few more days to dream (4.00 / 1)

Of Howard Dean as a surprise selection? Wouldn't it be nice if the announcement that Dean would stay on as DNC chairman was subterfuge and Paul Tewes had really been sent to the DNC to prepare to take over and not just to oversee fundraising?

It won't score points with the Clinton/Emmanuel/MacAuliffe end of the party, but it would with me.  If all the Democratic contenders had been equally against the war in Iraq in 2004, Dean would still been the guy I liked most policy-wise and Obama always struck me as the most Dean-like in this year's field.

I could see Dean as VP being tasked with taking charge of health care reform, since Obama's health care plan seems to be almost a copy of Dean's.  

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both

---

by: Anthony de Jesus @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 05:49:41 AM CDT

yes (0.00 / 0)

odd he hasn't been mentioned more, a least as a possibility

---

by: tremayne @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:37:18 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I've Been Thinking Dean For Awhile (0.00 / 0)

It would re-energize the base and, for most Obama supporters, be an "OMG!!" moment when they flipped the phones on to read who the choice was -- and I think it HAS to be someone who would get that kind of reaction rather than an "Oh" or a "Who?" or a "NOOO!" which is what a Hillary choice would be (note to remaining Hillbots: the absolute LAST thing Obama needs is to do ANYTHING to energize McSameAsBush's base - which is precisely what Hillary would do as VP choice).

So he's my guess and I'm stickin' to it.

---

by: EdgewaterJoe @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:15:23 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I Don't Know If You've Noticed (4.00 / 1)

But McCain's base is energized. He's spent the last three weeks demonizing Obama to exactly that end. McCain knew that he couldn't rally his base on his own merits, so instead he rallied his base by ridiculing the alternative. And it worked.

McCain has his base. Obama picking Clinton couldn't rally them any more.

---

by: ergotist @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:18:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Interesting idea (0.00 / 0)

Very interesting.  Edgy, certainly, very exciting.  Too much so?  Maybe not.  He's an outsider in the sense of never having been in the federal gov't, but he knows federal programs from an executive perspective, he was a good governor who worked with the other side, and he knows health care.  The far right would go batshit crazy, but it would eneergize the Left.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

---

by: Mimikatz @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:14:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

There is a case for Kerry (0.00 / 0)

Kerry has been run up the flagpole with Obama, so I think he is being tested for viability.  

He has been vetted and tested in all the ways possible. There is a case that he actually won the presidency in 2004.  Regardless he got about hal fof the votes and knows more than anyone about being swiftboated. Even McCain came out against that attack in 2004.    

Caroline Kennedy would consult her beloved Uncle Teddy.

Kerry came out early and strongly for Obama.  

He will be as ready on Day one as Obama.  

Obama would choose a really intelligent cogent statesman

He has 100% name recognition already.   The public knows him.  

---

by: JohnBowne @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 06:05:33 AM CDT

It has to be pointed out that Ted Kennedy is VERY ill and I cannot imagine under any (0.00 / 0)

circumstances that MA( in discussions with high level pooh baas in the Party) would leave open the possibility that BOTH Senate seats in the very near future would be so junior if Kerry takes ANY job with Obama and with Kennedy's health a major question mark

---

by: Susan H @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 07:27:11 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wow... (0.00 / 0)

That cleared EVERYTHING UP.  ;-)

Nice analysis....   NOW FIND OUT THE NAME!!!

---

by: yitbos96bb @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 07:23:05 AM CDT

Mark Warner was born (0.00 / 0)

in Indiana and raised in Illinois, which would make the Springfield speech appropriate.  Just sayin'.

---

by: wvjenn @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 07:50:11 AM CDT

Kaine (0.00 / 0)

Would not be a very intelligent choice by Obama and it would almost certainly indicate a preference for personal familiarity rather than acumen.  That said, if he's going to announce Kaine, it probably wouldn't matter whether he did it in VA or not, since Kaine, given his approval, likely wouldn't draw the crowds that Obama wants there.  On the other hand, were it Warner, not making the announcement in VA would be silly.

On that note, guess who was born in IL, in Chicago, in fact?

Wesley Clark

---

by: planefinder @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:03:41 AM CDT

Kaine's anti-gay credentials (0.00 / 0)

He was for Virginia's anti-gay amendment

http://www.washblade.com/2006/...

Before he was against it

http://www.washingtonblade.com...

Ya know, doing some reading, I'm not sure WHERE Kaine's views are.  Or were.  But my wife and I worked very hard to get an amendment defeated in my state.  

War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength; McCain/Palin 2008

---

by: cheesehead @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:25:33 AM CDT

He's Definitely Interesting (0.00 / 0)

Kaine and Warner are both rather intriguing given their policy stances in Virginia and their own personal backgrounds.  Of the two, Kaine has taken substantially more conservative positions, both electorally and in governing, but Warner isn't exactly a partisan warrior either.  That said, to win in VA is not an easy proposition, and I would posit that a substantial amount of their conservatism stems from an effort to remain electorally viable in what remains a very conservative state.  For all the talk of VA's blueness, it still only gave Webb (relatively conservative himself) a razor-thin margin of victory even after Allen's mega-gaffe.  

Warner was allowed to have somewhat more liberal positions because he had established a firm base following his failed senate run against John Warner, and because his personal biography (involvement with the tech industry) gave him a technocratic feel.  Kaine, following in Warner's footsteps, faced a somewhat more skeptical electorate and I think some of his tacking right had to do with that.  

---

by: planefinder @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 08:37:59 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Shorter Tremayne (4.00 / 1)

"None of us have any freakin' clue.  Let's speculate wildly!"

Despite my snark, this is a good piece.  Of course, on Monday it was being reported that the announcement would come by Wednesday... so you know what?  I'm just gonna sit back, relax, and hope for a surprise.

---

by: themann1086 @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:02:58 AM CDT

VP (4.00 / 3)

professor Plum in the library with a knife?

---

by: Paul Avery @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 09:46:00 AM CDT

Springfield (0.00 / 0)

is all about the historic nature of the campaign.  Springfield means it is someone big.  Only two people fit Springfield:  Clinton and Gore.

---

by: DD2 @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:00:41 AM CDT

could be (0.00 / 0)

Gore's been pretty clear on saying "no" but he could always use the "Barack convinced me line."

---

by: tremayne @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:36:49 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

What is your answer (0.00 / 0)

when your President calls on you to serve?

---

by: DD2 @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:41:04 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

no gore (0.00 / 0)

there's no way al gore accepts a vp nod.

he'd have to give up all of his business interests that have made him millions post-politics....

his seat on the board of apple
his position as senior advisor to google
his position as chairman of current media
his position as chairman of generation investment management

the only was he leaves all of this is if obama adopts his climate change plans down to the last detail. and obama is not the type to be forced into anything (remember: reportedly, edwards would have endorsed him earlier if he had a mandate in his healthcare plan).  

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by: blueprint @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:58:26 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Springfield is about the message... (And Biden) (0.00 / 0)

...as the home of Lincoln, who had the courage to stick to his beliefs and lead the country through it's worst crisis.  Furthermore, Lincoln had never held a federal office before, so that also trumps the "inexperience" card.  Plus the similarities between both Obama's and Lincoln's reputation as orators.  This is a perfect place to have a big announcement--as long as the VP isn't today's equivalent of Andrew Johnson.  (I guess that would be Bayh or Hagel, but there would be other rightish Dems that would fit.)

BTW, Biden the attack dog?  GAG.  Does no one remember the Alito hearings where Biden blustered for 27 of his 30 minutes and thus was unable to force Alito to commit to anything?  He gave Alito a pass.  Disgusting.

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by: the lurking ecologist @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:20:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Nobody's Perfect (4.00 / 1)

You could find a similar past screw-up for anyone.

Whether or not these short-lists mean anything, of the list of people who have been circulated, Biden is the only one who has a history of being able to ridicule Republicans as naturally as a dog humping your leg. It's just his nature to do so.

Is that a good thing for this campaign? I don't know for sure but I seem to believe it's not. The Obama strategy seems to be to turn out the vote in a way that it's never been done before. The negative campaigning strategy is a vote-suppression tactic, and that's the opposite of what I'm doing. So, I don't think they're going for an attack dog.

But what do I know? We'll find out in a while.

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by: ergotist @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 14:08:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The 2004 campaign was extremely negative (0.00 / 0)

and it broke records in turnout.

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by: illissius @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 17:13:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No Records Were Broken (0.00 / 0)

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu...

There was a larger per capita turnout than the two previous elections, but other than that, it was hardly spectacular. In fact I don't even think it was above average for turnout of voting age citizens.

There's a lot of headroom for getting people to turnout and vote.

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by: ergotist @ Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 18:17:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Except (0.00 / 0)

The Dems had already been through the wingnut in sheep's clothing exercise with Roberts.  They knew that O'Connor still needed to be replaced and that Bush would nominate someone basically like Scalia, but "nicer."  They should have had a game plan and that game plan should have been developed by the Dem leaders on the Judicial Committee, particularly because they couldn't count on Spector actually backing up anything he said that sounded middle of the road.  So Leahy, Biden, and TK should have been prepared and they weren't.  Leahy was completely useless, Biden blathered on, and Kennedy did OK, IMO.

Plus, it's the Supreme Court!  After Bush/Gore, wouldn't the gravity of the situation be understood?

The plagiarism of some speech out of England or whatever is a "past screw up" that can certainly be overlooked.  We are stuck with Alito now for decades.  That is a monumental mistake.

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by: the lurking ecologist @ Thu Aug 21, 2008 at 09:54:21 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

The FISA Bill (0.00 / 0)

We'll have to live with the FISA law for a long time too, and Obama voted for that, even after he promised that he'd filibuster against it. People seem to have forgiven him for that. And I'm sure people will forgive Biden. In fact, I'm sure people already have.

Should they forgive and forget so easily? That's another question. But I think recent history shows that they will.

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by: ergotist @ Thu Aug 21, 2008 at 12:04:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]