WA-08: Darcy Burner Results Thread, Reichert is Way Under 50

by: Matt Stoller

Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 23:13


The Washington Secretary of State results thread is here.  The King Country results web page is here, and Pierce County is here.

UPDATE ONE King County results of early absentees are seeing Reichert way under 50.  

Boleslaw (John) Orlinski  1.05%
Richard Todd  1.44%
James E. Vaughn  3.71%
Dave Reichert  46.37%
Keith Arnold  1.49%
Darcy Burner  45.88%
Write-in  0.05%

UPDATE TWO:  Republican Dino Rossi took a narrow lead over Christine Gregoire, but King County hasn't come in yet for the gubernatorial race so she should be find.  The Washington Secretary of State site still hasn't updated for WA-08.

UPDATE THREE:  Pierce County is in.  Reichert is below 50 in his base county.

Boleslaw (John) Orlinski  161  1.18%
Richard Todd  294  2.15%
James E. Vaughn  769  5.62%
Dave Reichert  6,830  49.88%
Keith Arnold  261  1.91%
Darcy Burner  5,320  38.85%
Write-In  57  0.42%

UPDATE FOUR:  I'm at the watch party.  We're going to hear a bit more in a half hour or so, but somewhere around half of the ballots are gradually going to trickle in over the next ten days.  Darcy should gain a few points.  This is an excellent result.

 Boleslaw (John) Orlinski
(States No Party Preference)
622 1.08 %
Richard Todd
(States No Party Preference)
928 1.61 %
James E. Vaughn
(Prefers Democratic Party)
2,398 4.17 %
Dave Reichert
(Prefers Republican Party)
27,186 47.27 %
Keith Arnold
(Prefers Democratic Party)
916 1.59 %
Darcy Burner
(Prefers Democratic Party)
25,460 44.27 %

This primary was intended to sort out the top two people on the ballot, so now voters will choose either Reichert or Burner in November.  In 2006, there was a third party candidate who drew a small but significant amount and left Reichert below 50%.  Now these third parties are going to be knocked out for the general, so the anti-incumbent sentiment should consolidate around Burner.  

If you add the Democrats together in this primary, you get around 50% of the vote.  And if you take all the anti-incumbent sentiment, it adds up to roughly 53% of the primary universe.  In November, we'll see a wave of new Obama voters, and they should put Darcy over the top.

I'll update over the next few days as ballots trickle in.  It's not as clear cut as I'd like, but this is a win so far.
Matt Stoller :: WA-08: Darcy Burner Results Thread, Reichert is Way Under 50

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WA-08: Darcy Burner Results Thread, Reichert is Way Under 50 | 15 comments
Forgive me for this dumb question... (0.00 / 0)
But how do these primaries work?  Just to determine the ballots in November?
Top Two Advance to General (4.00 / 3)
Except in some race (mostly Judicial) where if the top vote getter is above 50% they're elected in the Primary - no General required.

Candidates for partisan positions had to indicate party "preference", but they could indicate anything.  Rossi indicated "Prefers G.O.P. Party" as he hid from the Republican brand.

On The Road To 2008: Commentary on issues as we countdown to the next opportunity to change the direction of America

[ Parent ]
Thank you... n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Governor (0.00 / 0)
Why are Rossi and Gregoire on the same ballot? Is their system like Louisiana's run off system? If Gregoire had received 50%+1 tonight, would she have been reelected?
Yes and No (0.00 / 0)
Somewhat similar to Louisiana, except top two advance in most races regardless of percentage.  Gregoire can't win tonight, but she can establish bragging rights over Rossi.

On The Road To 2008: Commentary on issues as we countdown to the next opportunity to change the direction of America
[ Parent ]
Who are ... (0.00 / 0)
Vaughn and Arnold? .. Darcy would be kicking Reichert's ass if those votes were in her total
Hard to make that claim (0.00 / 0)
Vaughn is definitely taking votes away from Burner in Pierce County (where Vaughn is from), but I suspect that to many Vaughn supporters voting for a younger woman is a hard sell, so many may still lean toward Reichert in the general election.

On The Road To 2008: Commentary on issues as we countdown to the next opportunity to change the direction of America
[ Parent ]
Who is Vaugh anyway? .. (0.00 / 0)
since I am an East Coaster .. I am not familiar with the race other than what Matt posts here
[ Parent ]
Go to www.jimvaughnforcongress.com (4.00 / 1)
"I am a conservative, no-nonsense Democrat and have been compared to Scoop Jackson.  In actual terms I consider myself a Blue Dog Democrat.  The Blue Dogs are dedicated to a core set of beliefs that transcend  partisan politics, including a deep commitment to the financial stability  and national security of the United States."

On The Road To 2008: Commentary on issues as we countdown to the next opportunity to change the direction of America
[ Parent ]
Blue Dog? .. (0.00 / 0)
that's the last thing we need!!!
[ Parent ]
When the 8th CD gave out their endorsement... (0.00 / 0)
...he got none of the votes, and Burner was a unanimous choice of the voting PCOs.

Obviously he appeals to a percentage of voters that both Reichert and Burner will try to woo.

On The Road To 2008: Commentary on issues as we countdown to the next opportunity to change the direction of America

[ Parent ]
Update (0.00 / 0)
as of 8:42 pm Pacific Time:

Boleslaw (John) Orlinski (States No Party Preference)
622 1.08 %
Richard Todd (States No Party Preference)
928 1.61 %
James E. Vaughn (Prefers Democratic Party)
2,398 4.17 %
Dave Reichert (Prefers Republican Party)
27,186 47.27 %
Keith Arnold (Prefers Democratic Party)
916 1.59 %
Darcy Burner (Prefers Democratic Party)
25,460 44.27 %

If Vaughn's Democrat votes transfer to Burner once they're down to the top two candidates, she pulls ahead. (Assuming that these results still stand in a few hours. And assuming that the small turnout today is proportional to the larger turnout come November.) But I'll take this as good news!

See my reply above (0.00 / 0)
Don't count on Burner picking up all of Vaughn's votes.  She'll need his support for the general in convincing his supporters to back her, but even then I suspect these are people not ready to vote for a younger woman candidate.

On The Road To 2008: Commentary on issues as we countdown to the next opportunity to change the direction of America
[ Parent ]
this race is really hard. this analysis makes it sound too easy (0.00 / 0)
Darcy beat Reicert in the primary last year, and lost to him this year.  She lost ground.  This is a very hard race and pretending like there's any trend that will carry the day is wishing for a pony.

This result should send the Darcy team back to the drawing board to analyze why they weren't able to outduel Reichert this primary, when they were able to last year.  Don't blame the stupid primary.  Don't blame the joke candidates.  Both those factors certainly played a role, but so did message and field strategy.

This is a race that demands no margin of error on every decision from here until election day.

Also it's waaay too presumptious to assume that Darcy will get every vote that did not go to Reichert.

And she won't (0.00 / 0)
But the issue is that the 2006 primary was a pick a party system.  This one wasn't.  You cannot compare the two results.

On The Road To 2008: Commentary on issues as we countdown to the next opportunity to change the direction of America
[ Parent ]
WA-08: Darcy Burner Results Thread, Reichert is Way Under 50 | 15 comments
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