Wednesday Evening Round-up Thread

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 19:27


Here are a few items for a fine Wednesday evening:

  • Two new national polls, from NBC and CBS, both show Obama up by 3%, down from 6% in both a couple weeks ago. Obama continues to lead, but McCain continues to catch up.

  • Obama likes single payer health care:

    "If I were designing a system from scratch, I would probably go ahead with a single-payer system," Obama told some 1,800 people at a town-hall style meeting on the economy.

    That's cool. Although, I do wonder about single payer sometimes. I mean, France isn't single payer, and they have just about the best system in the world (not to mention a lot of private, supplemental insurance), so it isn't exactly the end-all, be-all of good health care systems.

  • McCain agrees with the draft:

    QUESTIONER: If we don't reenact the draft, I don't think we'll have anyone to chase Bin Laden to the gates of hell.

    [Appaluse]

    MCCAIN: Ma'am, let me say that I don't disagree with anything you said.

    No matter the context, a competent, properly vicious, attack minded Democratic campaign would go after McCain hard for this.

  • Speaking of attacks, during the Democratic national convention, just about every speaker should mercilessly attack Republicans for their convention themes: peace, prosperity and reform. That is just bald face lying, and it needs to be called such. It needs that these are the three things that have been most lacking under Republican governance. Republicans brought us nothing but war, corruption, and an erosion of our national wealth. And, to boot, they continue to lie about it, by claiming they are bringing the opposite. During the convention, Democrats must hammer this home by directly, repeatedly attacking Republicans for their convention themes. Do it.

  • A new poll in North Carolina shows McCain ahead 44.5%--42.8%, while a new poll in New Hampshire shows Obama ahead 47%-46%. Pollster.com shows both states slightly less competitive than do these polls, although they are undoubtedly among the thirteen swing states according to my Presidential forecast.

  • I have been very spotty on checking my email over the last few days. I just don't want to do it all the time anymore. Weren't there times in our lives when people would call other people if they had something important to say to them? Now, I get hundreds of emails a day, most of them I either don't want to read because they are press releases and email list discussions, or because it is just piling another hour or more onto my workday. Email has become an omnipresent source of work related stress-you are never done or free from work, because you have to check your email. Aarrggghhhh. It just never ends, and I need a breather.

This is an open thread. What are you thinking, reading, or doing tonight?  
Chris Bowers :: Wednesday Evening Round-up Thread

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Wednesday Evening Round-up Thread | 17 comments
Agreed on the Draft thing. (4.00 / 1)
Doesn't matter what the context is, use exactly the part that you quoted there... this fits in perfectly with the new "hot-headed" attack as well... now we can fully elaborate... McCain wants a draft to supply his many wars that he'll start.
France (4.00 / 3)
It's an interesting system but I'm not sure it works as well as is advertised.

Much of it is paid for by the state and by employers. 0.75% of salary is paid to the non-profit insurer, but that apparently isn't enough. The wikipedia article you linked to explained that over the last 30 years more French are relying on supplemental private insurance to make up the distance between what the public covers and the actual cost.

That may work in France, where wages and incomes are comparatively higher than here in the States. But would it work here?

I think one big thing we have to keep in mind when comparing European universal care models is that more matters than just the method of payment. Tax policies, levels of regulation, ability of households to pay, those all matter as well. In a highly regulated "social market democracy" like France there is little incentive for insurers or care providers to seek huge profit margins, so the system still works well enough.

Here in the US, though, much of our economic and fiscal policy is geared toward accumulation of wealth. For a French style system to work we'd have to outlaw for-profit insurance, levy much higher income taxes on executive pay, and reshape how we regulate insurers.

I find it instructive that the two nations whose political economy most resembles our own - Canada and Britain - both use a true single-payer system. It may be a better fit, and easier to push through than the numerous other changes that a French style system would require.

Anyone also notice a reversal in State vs. National Polling? (0.00 / 0)
Before, state polling seemed to paint a better picture than the national polling.  Now national polling paints a better (albeit narrowing) picture than state polling.  This is demonstrated perfectly in the RealClearPolitics graphs, which show McCain winning the EV now, but with Obama slightly head nationally.
Single Payer (4.00 / 3)
Obama has said this before.  I'm glad to see he's willing to say it again this close to the general election, though.
I'm fixating on this line (4.00 / 2)
"Undecided: 13%. Clinton supporters make up nearly half of the undecideds."

This is from Halperin's cliff notes on the WSJ/NBC poll.  I don't know whether this is a statistical anomaly because most polling outfits do not report this crosstab.  But if this is a relatively consistent finding that is representative of the electorate at large, then it becomes very hard to argue against picking HRC from a purely strategic perspective.  

John McCain: Health insurance for low income children represents an "unfunded liability."

It's also (4.00 / 1)
A pretty unflattering (if likely unfair) picture of Clinton supporters.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.
[ Parent ]
Don't think its unflattering (0.00 / 0)
Why is it that Obama backers who don't like HRC are never called into question, but HRC backers who don't like Obama are called "unflattering" names?

Maybe they just don't LIKE the guy. Maybe they're racists or genuinely don't think he's qualified. But what's good for the goose should be good for the gander.  

[ Parent ]
It;'s not about fairness (0.00 / 0)
I say mean things about some HRC backers because I just don't like them for reasons that don't necessarily have to do with their candidate.

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both
[ Parent ]
Okay, that's fair (0.00 / 0)
Hey, at least you're honest!

LOL

[ Parent ]
There's a difference (0.00 / 0)
between not liking Clinton and refusing to vote for her if she were the nominee in an election of this magnitude. I don't give a crap if anyone wants to invite Obama for a bbq. I care though if supposed Democrats sit on their hands while John freakin McCain steals this election.

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.
[ Parent ]
You should try budgeting email time. (4.00 / 1)
Check your email once in the morning and once after lunch. Respond to everything in those time periods. If people urgently need to contact you, let them pick up the phone.

When you reply to people, let them know that you only check your email occasionally. You know "If you need something before tomorrow, just give me a call because I probably won't check my mail again."

Some of us get little enough mail that we can simply check it throughout the day, but if you're getting that much, it's probably best to just not worry about it most of the time.

I support John McCain because children are too healthy anyway.

Key to this is filtering out press releases and other garbage (0.00 / 0)
Try filtering press releases to a folder. If there isn't a common subject substring like "Press Release", a phrase like "Media Contact:" in the body of the email ought to catch the majority of them.

Use a whitelist, graylist, or blacklist if you have to.

[ Parent ]
Suddenly I'm a chronic optimist (4.00 / 2)
I can't help but find good things in bad polls.

As others have remarked, the crosstabs indicating that Obama is not winning over Hillary supporters, or totally solidifying the Democratic vote, strike me as a reason to be hopeful.  For it's hard for me to believe that the vast majority of those will not ultimately come home. Indeed, I would think that the convention will be especially persuasive to that group.

Further, I think it is good in the long run for Obama and his supporters to feel concern, if not even panic. If nothing else, the expectation game will change, and that should help. Maybe people will stop acting as if Obama should be crushing McCain just by showing up.

Perhaps I'll revert to my normal pessimism tomorrow.


If you look at the crosstabs of all these polls (0.00 / 0)
There is plenty of good stuff for Obama. Look at these from NBC/WSJ asking who is better on certain issues:

Jobs and unemployment - Obama 47, McCain 32
Improving the economy - Obama 42, McCain 30

Also, "Please tell me how closely you believe John McCain would follow and support George W. Bush's programs and policies if elected president--very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all."

Very closely 33
Somewhat closely 44
Not too closely 18
Not closely at all 4
Not sure 1

Numbers like these keep me optimistic and I don't think unduly so.

[ Parent ]
email (0.00 / 0)
Email has become an omnipresent source of work related stress-you are never done or free from work, because you have to check your email. Aarrggghhhh. It just never ends, and I need a breather.

Don't worry the email will be there tomorrow if you don't check it.

The liberal wiki
Send an email to terra@liberalwiki.com

You need to read a bit of Merlin Mann. (0.00 / 0)
43folders is where you want to look. Google it.  
Be grateful for email (0.00 / 0)
"Weren't there times in our lives when people would call other people if they had something important to say to them? Now, I get hundreds of emails a day"

And thank god for that. Hundreds of people CALLING you every day would be a nightmare. Right?

Wednesday Evening Round-up Thread | 17 comments
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