(Dark Blue (183): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (77): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (57): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (70): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (151): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Florida, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire (2), North Carolina and Pennsylvania. The polls are coming fast and thick now (hmmm... can I write that in public?) but the map remains very similar to yesterday's. New Hampshire moves from "Lean Obama" to "Toss-up," while Wisconsin moves from "Solid Obama" to "Lean Obama." Colorado also drops to a dead heat, pushing Obama below 270 electoral votes for the first time in four or five months. More positively, Minnesota moves back into Obama's base category, after only one day on the swing state chart:
If every state was pushed to choose a candidate, right now, based on the current averages, the score is Obama 264, McCain 262, and 12 in the toss-up category. Of course, that is based on McCain running the table in several states that are currently well within the margin of error--Alaska, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. Still, we are basically talking about a dead heat entering the conventions, with Obama holding only the most narrow of leads.
* Maine four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology The forecast is updated whenever there are enough new polls to warrant an update. The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls conducted entirely or partially within the last 30 days are included in the averages. There are two exceptions to this rule.
The first exception are states where no polls were conducted entirely or partially in the last 30 days. Every state has at least one poll.
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease.
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