As I've argued before, I think the schedule would be odd for a Virginia VP pick. You spend 2 days in VA and then leave to make the announcement somewhere else? And then you go (reportedly) to Indiana? Plus, there's this from Ambinder: VA Dems pessimistic about Kaine's chances after reading his body language.
There was also an unconfirmed report that Kaine hadn't tested well compared to Warner with Virginia voters. If the main reason for his selction is to carry Virginia and that's not a certainty, do you pick him? Bayh would be totally uninspired. It would say "I have this election in the bag and all I want my VP to do is not say anything stupid for 2 months." The strongest signal that it's Bayh is that we have heard so little from his camp. And that kind of discipline might be very appealing to Obama. So, of the three, and with the Indiana event that has been reported, I would predict Bayh. But there are some reasons to think Obama might do something unexpected, something like going with Clinton. Here are some: 1. The race is undeniably close at this point. The Obama team may have a much superior ground machine but that sounds a little too much like wishful thinking for me. Obama wants to win and there is reason to believe that Obama support among Dems would move toward the 90% range if Clinton is the VP. It may move in that direction anyway but do you really want to leave that to chance? 2. The Clintons would complicate Obama's White House. But Obama is a pretty confident guy. Like Bill Clinton of the 1990s, he is pretty good at compromise. I am sure he is cognizant of the potential problems and also confident in his own ability to deal with it. 3. It goes against brand but maybe it doesn't. He's for change and HRC represents the past. But she, like he, would make history with a victory in November. In that sense they both represent significant cultural change. 4. Obama needs somebody (if he realizes it) who is willing to throw sharp elbows and dirty punches. He gets 2 such people with the Clintons. Bill used to be somewhat subtle with the putdowns but that was then and this is now. 5. If, in June, Clinton told you she should be your VP and you were seriously considering it, what would you do? You would probably tell her that the only way it could happen is if you wholeheartedly endorse me, make it clear you have gotten over the joint ticket idea, have those under your influence (such as the "Vote Both" folks) drop all of their efforts on HRC's behalf. You'd say, I can't look weak by picking you, like I was forced by circumstance. It must look like a choice I made that I didn't have to make but I did because I'm such a big person and I care about the country and I care about victory. 6. If, given the bitterness and length of the primaries, HRC came to you and said "I want to have my name formally submitted for nomination," would you say "sure" and also reward both Clinton's with high-profile speeches at the convention? Wouldn't you be a little worried about that? Unless of course you already had a VP deal in the works too. 7. There's no time left for McCain to raise "scary Hillary Clinton" money for his campaign because he switches to public financing in 13 days. The RNC can raise money this way but then again, Hill and Bill are pretty good fundraisers who would free Obama from those duties for the fall. 8. I've heard that Obama has a sense of theatrics and staging. Does he really think Obama-Bayh is exciting? Okay, that's enough. Like I said, this will probably look dumb but who knows. I think when the only option is Bayh you really hope for anything that would be more exciting than that. Like "Obama-Can of Paint, 2008" |
