Yet Another VP Speculation Thread, With Poll

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Aug 22, 2008 at 14:19


Here is an attempt at process of elimination to determine Obama's Vice-President:

  • It's a dude: Earlier this week, Obama referred to his Vice-President in gender specific terms:

    My vice president, also by the way my vice president also will be a member of the executive branch, he won't be one of these 4th branches of government where he thinks he's above the law.

    Given that Obama had already made the decision when he said this, it seems likely that neither Clinton nor Sebelius is the choice.

  • It isn't Bayh: I'm still going with Steve Clemmons, who reported five days ago that Evan Bayh hasn't been selected due at least partially to resistance from the base.

  • It isn't Clark, Dodd, Daschle, Nunn or Reed: There is a long list of darkhorse picks for VP, with Wesley Clark, Tom Daschle, Chris Dodd, Sam Nunn and Jack Reed topping those lists. However, multiple sources have confirmed that it isn't any of these five.

That leaves us with Biden, Kaine (both of whom are regularly mentioned in the top three), and, in a new development, Representative Chet Edwards of Texas.  

Presidential candidate Barack Obama is hours away from naming his running mate, as little-known Texas congressman Chet Edwards is emerging as a finalist.

Democratic officials say that Edwards was one of the few Democrats whose background was checked by Obama's campaign, and he was a finalist for the job.

Edwards is among a small circle of people mentioned, including Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware and Evan Bayh of Indiana.

I hope this is just placating Nancy Pelosi, who for some strange reason keeps pushing Edwards as Vice-President. It would be a pretty terrible choice, given that Edwards is utterly unproven on the national campaign stage, since backbenchers in the House are usually not thought of as ready to become President, since Edwards would be the stark opposite of Obama, and since he is pretty much the most conservative Democrat around. I'm going to guess that the Obama campaign isn't stupid enough to pick this guy.

So, that leaves us with Biden and Kaine. I go back and forth on who seems more likely. The weight of circumstantial evidence seems to point to Kaine, while the weight of believability points to Biden. I can't decide.

Anyway, who do you think will be chosen? Take the poll in the extended entry.
Chris Bowers :: Yet Another VP Speculation Thread, With Poll
Poll
Who will Obama pick to be his VP?
Evan Bayh (Sen-IN)
Joe Biden (Sen-DE)
Hillary Clinton (Sen-NY)
Chris Dodd (Sen-CT)
Chet Edwards (Rep-TX)
Tim Kaine (Gov-VA)
Kathleen Sebelius (Gov-KS)
Someone else

Results


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Yet Another VP Speculation Thread, With Poll | 69 comments
May be someone completely unexpected (4.00 / 2)
After watching a segment on CNN about 2004 when Kerry's campaign was selecting their VP, it seems campaigns do a LOT to throw people off track. Kerry's campaign even printed up shirts and other items with four different names to keep people guessing.

It was an employee at an airport who spotted the Kerry/Edwards logo being put on a jet that actually scooped all the corporate media and reported what he saw via the web and it just broke from there.

yeah i agree, dark horse it is (0.00 / 0)
I just have a hard time seeing Biden or Kaine.  I can't imagine Obama is really that excited about Biden's propensity for gaffes, and Biden's "I'm not the guy" statement seems indicative.  What other strengths does the guy have really?  Plenty of other people could be effective attack dogs.  And does Obama really want to pull a ticket with two senators?  

Kaine seems more possible than Biden.  But Kaine is underwhelming as a politician, and wouldn't deliver the kind of game-changing move Obama is (hopefully) looking for now.

So I'm betting on "dark horse."  I think if it's Clark, we win in a landslide.  It's ideal: he compensates for Obama's perceived weaknesses, and complements his strengths.  It would also be a sign of standing up to the media and seizing initiative.  But somehow I'm doubting he's it.  Picking someone with a recent gaffe on the radar is perhaps not what Obama wants right now, and Clark endorsed Clinton, so perhaps he is still on the outs with Obama.

So who are some likely dark horses? Reed? Richardson?  Aside from Clinton, Kerry, or Gore (because, you know, come on!) what are some other names we haven't been hearing lately?

[ Parent ]
Gender specific (4.00 / 1)
I wouldn't read to much into that. Possible the "he" was more in reference to Cheney.
Yeah I agree (0.00 / 0)
I think the "he" in that case was referencing Dick Cheney.

[ Parent ]
Biden.... (4.00 / 1)
Probably Joe...but Maybe Clinton as a surprise...don't think it's going to be Bayh or Kaine...even though I like Kaine better.
I'm convinced it's Kaine (I'd prefer Biden) (0.00 / 0)
I think the giddy way Kaine keeps talking to the press about how he's leaving it to the campaign to make announcements pretty much gives it away.
[ Parent ]
is there any video of that (0.00 / 0)
reports i read said he was looking glum.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
it's the impression I get from reading the press (0.00 / 0)
I haven't seen any video either. I could be wildly off base.
[ Parent ]
Biden or Warner ... (0.00 / 0)
Yup, I believe Mark Warner is still the best choice, but then again, my opinion doesn't count.  Only Sen. Obama can say who his running partner will be.  I'm still betting on either Sen. Biden or Gov. Warner.  Both add substance to the campaign.
[ Parent ]
Agreed 100% (0.00 / 0)


John McCain.  Wrong for America.
[ Parent ]
Are either Biden or Kaine (4.00 / 3)
worth the suspense.

I feel like I'm watching Geraldo Rivera open Al Capone's vault. (For those too young, follow the link:

The Mystery of Al Capone's Vault was a one-time live American television special broadcast in syndication in April 1986 hosted by Geraldo Rivera. The program was centered around the opening of a secret vault once owned by noted gangster Al Capone. The program is now perhaps best-known for the vault being ultimately empty except for debris.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T...

Good point (4.00 / 2)
Which would argue for a surprise. Would they build up the suspense only to hand us someone (a boring moderate white guy) we expected?

I fear that the answer is yes.

[ Parent ]
Is it possible there's someone who actually gets excited by Tim Kaine? (4.00 / 1)
...I don't know who it would be, but...
[ Parent ]
Well... (4.00 / 3)
I imagine Tim Kaine's family would be stoked. As would Tim Kaine.  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
[ Parent ]
awesome reference! (4.00 / 1)
I stayed up to the bitter end of that! that was the best, with Geraldo out of time he signed off that they would keep digging for a few more hours.  

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
which suggests a surprise (4.00 / 1)
I think the people who most reinforces Obama's change theme - while bringing experience to the table are

Russ Feingold
Bill Bradley
Gary Hart (my personal favorite)

[ Parent ]
Well, I think they're holding off now. (4.00 / 3)
Because they're getting good play with the "John McBling" stuff and don't want to stamp it out before it's run its course.
[ Parent ]
www.obamanelson.com (0.00 / 0)
www.obamanelson.com click it
Sorry (4.00 / 1)
The whois data shows that owned by some random guy named Joe Chan in Allston, MA.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!
[ Parent ]
No .. (4.00 / 1)
spot on the poll for Pie?   ;-)
My bet is on Biden (4.00 / 3)
because Obama is an extremely cautious pol, and Biden, his verbal diarrhea notwithstanding, is the safest choice: tested on the national stage, liked by the press, a plausible president. Plus Obama sees the polls: he knows he's losing badly on foreign policy, that an international crisis could hand this election to McCain. So: Biden.

The one bit of information cutting against Biden, is that Obama seems to take his "change" brand seriously, and it's hard to think of someone who undercuts this message more thoroughly.

Still, I say Biden. In fact, I'd be very surprised if it's not.

Let the national conversation about hair plugs commence!

it's hard to think of someone who undercuts this message more thoroughly (0.00 / 0)
Clinton

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare
[ Parent ]
, his verbal diarrhea notwithstanding (0.00 / 0)
What about the bit of verbal diarrhea when he announced he wasn't the VP pick?
[ Parent ]
Yeah, he also brings... (0.00 / 0)
...Catholic, known in Pennsylvania, Working Class roots, the base can live with him.....

It's not a bad choice for Obama.

[ Parent ]
Yeah and Biden is (0.00 / 0)
still relatively un-wealthy--not a bad thing given the turn that the election has taken. If I call correctly, I think he's worth about $150,000.
[ Parent ]
Did I miss Clark on the Poll? (0.00 / 0)
Clark is the only one who can stand up to McCain as a decorated wounded war hero and he is more progressive than Obama.  

Clark is the only answer.

HRC we lose.

Biden actually has some balls, but they will bring up the "Indian" comment.

Sebelius is good to, but by the twisted CW, only HRC can be Pres or VP, no other woman is allowed.  

Kaine is LOL.  Just a fantasy.

Wow (0.00 / 0)
You've got it all figured out.
[ Parent ]
HRC (4.00 / 2)
My feeling is that the only reason that BA took so long to make the choice (as contrasted with previous choices made well before the convention) is to see if support for HRC would soften.   It hasn't.   It's going to be Hillary Clinton.  She's always been the default choice (duh) and BA may have just wanted to gauge how hard-set the concrete on the default was...

From a pragmatic point of view: whatever the merits of the candidate, since nobody else could garner nearly as many votes as BA... it makes no sense NOT to pick HRC.

And the 'he' in the earlier reference was to Cheney.

I'm starting to think the same thing (0.00 / 0)
It makes sense that part of the delay may be attributable to Obama waiting to see the trajectory of her supporters and the recent polling.

I'm also starting to think that picking Clinton would give a tremendous jolt to the Democratic party and drive the media discussion through McCain's pick (probably Mitt) and Rep. Convention.  Especially if he does it at the Convention with her staunch supporters foaming at the mouth.

Of course I never liked the idea of another Clinton on the ticket, anywhere, but I'd rather have a VP named Clinton than one named Romney.

Then again, all signs point to Biden, and I can live with him as VP.

[ Parent ]
Chet Edwards (4.00 / 3)
Hasn't spoken to Obama.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/0...

I seriously doubt Obama wants to take the risk with low-info voters thinking John Edwards was on the ticket. I think Chet was probably vetted as a courtesy to Pelosi.

yeah (4.00 / 2)
I have a feeling Pelosi played up his name because she probably needs a new Murtha.

My Silver State - Nevada's Progressive Community Blog
[ Parent ]
Wild Card (4.00 / 2)
I just keep getting the feeling that the VP pick is going to be a total wildcard...someone who isn't on anybody's list. I'm probably wrong, but that's just what my gut is saying.  
I agree (0.00 / 0)
my worthless 2 cents: Lee Hamilton
[ Parent ]
I think if he did something like that... (0.00 / 0)
...it would be Tim Roemer.

He's younger, and has all the Lee Hamilton stuff: Indiana, 9/11 commission.

Also, he's already involved in Obama's campaign.

[ Parent ]
Roemer is unknown (0.00 / 0)
Hamilton is basically the elder statesman of the Democratic party.  While not many people recognize his name, he is simple to define.  He was co-chair of both ISG and 9/11 com, which counteracts the "national security" McCain meme.  I'm not saying I like the pick or expect it, but it is plausible if you're looking for the "dark horse".
[ Parent ]
in the end (0.00 / 0)
In the end, this election is going to come down to whether Obama can win one out of Ohio, Colorado, or Virginia. So while I don't think its the best choice, I think that Obama is going to pick Kaine just to do everything he can to win there.  
Seems to be lots of questions... (0.00 / 0)
...over whether Kaine can carry Virginia.
[ Parent ]
Who knows. (0.00 / 0)
I spoke to Roger Fisk (former Kerry event organizer, now w/ BHO) about a month ago and he said that Virginia was the most important state on the map.  That was in response to a question on the veepstakes...
[ Parent ]
Kaine (0.00 / 0)
He isn't all that popular in Virginia even. Nothing like Warner. He means nothing in terms of carrying that state.
[ Parent ]
Id like to get to speculating on timing of announcement (4.00 / 2)
its lunch time on the west coast, and on the east coast we're an hour away from everyone rushing out of work early to get to the weekend beach house. Seems to me best would have been to announce during a lunch hour for max co-worker chatter. Its getting a little late now, he should announce before east coasters take off. Any time later would be dumb.

Otherwise seems like announcement will be tomorrow - but that's dumb too. Who is going to be home in the middle of the day on Saturday? Not a lot of chatter among friends going to happen with a weekend announcement. Maybe family can argue with each other. I think he should have announced an hour ago.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

Could be a "3am HRC" text, then... (4.00 / 7)

[ Parent ]
hahah (4.00 / 1)
recced for the laughs lol
[ Parent ]
ya know...I said that to a co worker earlier in the day... (0.00 / 0)
Now that it's past 3pm on the east (almost 4pm) unless it happens in the next hour or so...you are going to miss the evening news...and who releases any of this type of news this late on a Friday unless its bad...

a 3am text followed by a joint appearance would be cathartic and clever.  this campaign has been for the most part clever (past 3 weeks excludeded).  it would not give the republicans enough time to fundraise as McCain has to start taking public money in less than 2 weeks....

I would not be surprised...

[ Parent ]
Announcing at the end of the day on friday (4.00 / 2)
Kinda funny, this means that the most hypothetically excitement-generating message from the Obama campaign in months will be released the same way as the stereotypical friday news dump.
[ Parent ]
Probably going to announce live at like 6:30PM EST? (0.00 / 0)
What a way to steal the airwaves of the network news. The media is like going blue holding their breath for this and if he were to do it in time for the evening news you can be assured they will all cut to it and it will be what a good portion of Americans see and hear tonight.
[ Parent ]
Can't be a boring pick, can it? (4.00 / 2)
With the all the build-up, I can't believe that Obama would go with an unsurprising CW pick. Kaine would just kinda suck, Bayh would just suck, Biden would be OK, but too satisfying for the chattering class.

It's either Clinton, which nobody seriously expects, or some dark horse nobody's talking about. That also makes Chet Edwards possible, unfortunately.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

Biden (4.00 / 2)
While I still think HRC is the smartest choice, Biden is the most plausible for a variety of reasons.

If he goes in that direction (or Kaine), however, I really think the campaign has badly mismanaged the media narrative regarding Clinton in the last few days.  The most important goal of the next week is to bring Clinton supporters back into the fold.  If they don't pick her, its not good that (a) Obama dropped obvious clues pointing in her direction yesterday (b) Pundits on and off TV have been buzzing about the possibility of her being a surprise selection for 48 hours and (c) The story about not vetting her has broken and led to a bunch of headlines like "The Big Diss" and "Hillary Gets Stiffed."  


John McCain: Health insurance for low income children represents an "unfunded liability."

Clinton (4.00 / 1)
While I don't think Clinton is necessarily the smartest choice, I'm now guessing he'll go that way.  Only Hillary is both the conservative, safe choice and a bold, dramatic announcement.
[ Parent ]
.. (0.00 / 0)
I see what you are saying about Clinton being a conservative choice. But there is nothing 'safe' about picking a running mate who disagrees with you on the War and who has talked trash about you for endless hours into the camera. I still think she is a good pick and a likely pick, but she comes with a unique set of problems for the campaign to deal with.
And there is no doubt this would be Dramatic.  

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
[ Parent ]
Oxymoronic contradictions (0.00 / 0)
HRC represents an oxymoron: expected yet surprising, conservative yet brash, safe yet problematic.

I guess Gore can fill this strange oxymoronic space as well, as could most any highly qualified candidate who isn't a white male.

We'll know soon, I assume.

[ Parent ]
Obvious clues? (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
it's not Biden (0.00 / 0)
http://obama-biden.com/ redirects to a nasty page called "Stop Barack Obama." If Biden was the one, then you'd think the Obama campaign would have bought that domain to avoid embarrassment.

I've predicted for weeks now that it would be Kaine. My suspicion is that they were going to announce yesterday, but they decided at the last moment to let the "7 houses" gaffe play out instead.

The truth about Saxby Chambliss

I maintain (0.00 / 0)
Earlier this week, Obama referred to his Vice-President in gender specific terms:

I maintain that in context the "he" was ultimately a reference to Dick Cheney, who is a man.

And re the poll: I voted for hope. :P

Biden (4.00 / 2)
I think they will pick Biden because they figure if the veep can make swing voters comfortable with the idea of Obama as Commander-in-Chief then Obama can take care of the rest. There's nothing wrong with Biden, but I would have liked a strongly reinforcing pick better.
A close reading of Obama's words, and a guess (4.00 / 2)
Why did Obama say he wanted someone who would provide "robust debate" for him in the WH? That seems out of place. When someone uses an odd phrase, you have to think it's there for a reason but not necessarily a logical reason. It may be an emotional reason. What was the most cathected event for Obama in the campaign thus far? It must have been the debates, particularly the first couple of them. Therefore, I'm guessing that when he thought of the selected person, the charged term "debate" popped into his discourse because the person had participated in the debates with him. Therefore, it's Biden or Hillary--and given the other evidence, probably Biden.

Insight or mistake? We'll all know in a couple of hours.

Underwhelming. (4.00 / 1)
With all this speculation and secrecy, anyone save a rockstar will result in history's largest collective "bleh".
Bono for VP? (4.00 / 1)
I've heard worse ideas... I guess...
[ Parent ]
you're so literal. (0.00 / 0)
Think political rockstar. Someone to take the "celebrity" mantle.

"Bleh" is for everyone in the poll except Clinton.

[ Parent ]
Indeed (4.00 / 2)
What happens if he announces Bayh or Kaine? 20 million cable news viewers immediately switch over to the Olympics. I know I will.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
[ Parent ]
Chet Edwards is a winner (0.00 / 0)
He was targeted specifically by Tom DeLay and came through the fire.  

Yes, he has taken a number of votes that I disagree with, but those of you who aren't in Texans frankly have no idea about the politics of his district.  Before you start sounding off about "low information" voters, you should take a look in the mirror.  

Edwards would be an asset and is more than tough enough to draw sharp contrasts between Obama and McCain.

LET'S GO ALREADY!!!!! (4.00 / 1)
I CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WHERE IS THIS DAMN TEXT MESSAGE?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!!??!

Barack has lost is cell! (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
I'm guessing that there have been some deliberate head fakes (4.00 / 1)
E.g. "he", Saturday in Indiana, leaked names, Biden's denial. So I'm not sure that it'll be one of the most-mentioned "contenders". I see Biden more as SoS than VP, from an Obama point of view, and Bayh staying in the senate where he will presumably be a reliable Obama vote instead of a Repub who would replace him (especially after Obama went out of his way to stroke him, a leading DLCer and Clintonite). And Kaine is helping to make Virginia blue, so I see taking him out of the governorship as a politically unnecessary mistake (not to mention that he's a social conservative, ech).

Several names keep popping up for me. I'm probably way off, but what the hell--they can't be any more absurd than Gore, Kerry or Hagel.

Lee Hamilton
Maria Cantwell
Nancy Pelosi
Mario Cuomo
Andrew Cuomo
Bloomberg (ech)
Tim Ryan
Jay Inslee
Baba O'Riley

Ok, only semi-kidding about that last one. I have no idea who. Neither does anyone else.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

obligatory Gore post (0.00 / 0)
With all the buildup, anything less than a "celebrity" VP will be a huge letdown.

Gore (the best choice, obviously.....this ticket should be Gore/Obama anyway, but that's another rant for another time)
Clinton
Hilton
Spears

TPM: Not Kaine or Sebelius (0.00 / 0)
because the Obama campaign has booked them on Sunday TV talk shows to discuss the VP pick:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talk...

Schweitzer?  Obama's last stop is in Billings before going to Denver, or is that a head-fake?

I am not a Hillary fan, but I think it will be her.  Obama speaking yesterday seems to describe Hillary, here from USA TODAY, via Digby:

In an interview in Chester, Va., the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee said he's made up his mind, but he would not say whether he's informed that person yet. "I won't comment on anything else until I introduce our running mate to the world," he said. "That's all you're going to get out of me."

Obama said it was a difficult decision. "We had some great choices."

Obama said he wanted somebody who is "prepared to be president" and who will be "a partner with me in strengthening this economy for the middle class and working families."

He said he was looking for not just a partner but a sparring partner. "I want somebody who's independent, somebody who can push against my preconceived notions and challenge me so we have got a robust debate in the White House."

Who are we missing? (0.00 / 0)
This sudden Chet Edwards stuff makes me think it could be someone out of nowhere, albeit someone who reinforces Obama's themes: change, withdrawal from Iraq, pro-choice, etc. For instance, I don't think Obama would choose a pro-lifer when the shifting Supreme Court is a hot-button issue, which is why Bayh seems ridiculous. This guy Edwards would seem to be a veteran's choice (sorta like a John Murtha), but when I read he supported the war authorization and is against same-sex marriage, I think no way. About the latter, I'm remembering that line in Obama's Convention speech about having gay friends in red states. I just can't see Barack going against his gut principles for political expediency. That wouldn't be "change"; it'd be business as usual.

"This ain't for the underground. This here is for the sun." -Saul Williams
Surprising choice (0.00 / 0)
Eric Reed Boucher

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J...

He could do far worse.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

Elizabeth Edwards? (4.00 / 1)
(kidding)
I'd be OK with her. (0.00 / 0)
But many would have an issue with her health.  
[ Parent ]
Yet Another VP Speculation Thread, With Poll | 69 comments
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