(Dark Blue (183): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (77): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (72): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (55): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (151): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Arizona, Colorado (4), Florida, Michigan (2), Mississippi, Nevada (2), New Hampshire, New Mexico (3), North Carolina, Ohio (2), Virginia (2), Utah and Wyoming. These polls are all over the map, but on net they are good for Obama. The evidence for this comes from the swing state chart:
Obama rises to 302 electoral votes when the states are pushed, and with the addition of Michigan his "base" states also rise to 255 electoral votes. McCain gains Missouri in his base column and also takes a slight lead in New Hampshire, but otherwise he has slipped back slightly.
At this point, it is too early and these gains are too slight in order to identify a Biden bump. In fact, the first time that it will be possible to identify a bump will be in the middle of the convention, making any Biden bump indistinct from a convention bounce. And then, of course, by the time we can measure a convention bounce, McCain will have made his VP pick and the RNC will be under way. So, basically, we won't be able to identify any bounces for at least the next two weeks. Going to be an intense stretch.
* Maine's four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology The forecast is updated whenever there are enough new polls to warrant an update. The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls conducted entirely or partially within the last 30 days are included in the averages. There are two exceptions to this rule.
The first exception are states where no polls were conducted entirely or partially in the last 30 days. Every state has at least one poll.
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease.
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