(Dark Blue (183): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (77): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (72): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (55): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (151): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from Florida (2), North Carlina (2), Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas make virtually no dent in the state polling averages. Here is the swing state chart:
The big polling news today, of course, are the tracking polls that show a tie (Rasmussen) and a two-point lead for McCain (Gallup). That is the worst showing for Obama in three months, and also the first time in three months that McCain has a net lead in the tracking polls. It should be noted that this does not mean McCain is ahead nationally, as there are other polls and the tracking polls have consistently skewed toward McCain. Also, it should be noted that Obama continues to hold a lead at the state polling level.
However, this is still pretty bad news. Although the tracking polls have virtually no interviews conducted after Michelle Obama's speech, they were both entirely conducted after the Biden announcement. This means no Biden bump, which doesn't really surprise me. Biden just isn't the sort of politician who is going to win votes right away. The hope is that he can win them as the campaign goes on, with a strong debate, as tough attack dog, and just as a generally good surrogate.
I admit that I have a bad feeling about this. So far, the lack of bounce is eerily similar to 2004, when we didn't get a bounce out of the convention. I am not entirely sure what is going wrong, as I have actually generally liked what the Obama campaign has done over the past week. Conventions tend to put presidential campaigns where they should "naturally" be, and right now I am wondering if that means a toss-up or even a slight McCain lead. Maybe the last three months were just a mirage, and it was the March through May period that was normal. The next two weeks will let us know.
* Maine's four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology The forecast is updated whenever there are enough new polls to warrant an update. The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls conducted entirely or partially within the last 30 days are included in the averages. There are two exceptions to this rule.
The first exception are states where no polls were conducted entirely or partially in the last 30 days. Every state has at least one poll.
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease.
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