(Dark Blue (183): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (77): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (72): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (44): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (162): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from California, Colorado, Florida (2), Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. The only category change is Missouri moving from "Lean McCain" to "Solid McCain." Here is the swing state chart:
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%)
I am feeling a bit more relaxed today, primarily because the trend is now moving in favor of Obama. Still, if I were the Obama campaign, I would consider pulling paid media from Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri. Unless Obama receives a decent convention bump, which seems unlikely given its current tepid size, and since the Republican convention will immediately follow the Democratic convention, those states have pretty much moved out of reach. An argument could be made that spending there stretches McCain thin, but a counter argument could be made that shoring up Minnesota and Oregon is more worthwhile (and switching to South Dakota might also make sense). Perhaps better to board up your backdoor, especially given that Colorado and Virginia already present you with two backdoors into your opponent's house. (For the purposes of this analogy, winning either Florida or Ohio is considered the "front door.") Do we really need four, five or even six paths to victory? the current swing state chart suffices quite nicely, if you ask me.
Some might object, and say that pulling out of any state is a violation of the principles of the fifty-state strategy. However, the fifty-state strategy does not mandate equal spending in all states all the time. Instead, it means spending in all states at least some of the time, a greater emphasis on field than on paid media, and more decentralized control over the expenditure of funds raised by the DNC. The Obama campaign has staff everywhere, but is focusing mainly on the 18 states where it is running paid media. There isn't anything wrong with that. You try to play everywhere, but toward the end you tailor your resources to where they can make the most difference. Obama gave a national campaign a darn good shot, but now it is time to target most narrowly.
* Maine's four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology The forecast is updated whenever there are enough new polls to warrant an update. The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls conducted entirely or partially within the last 30 days are included in the averages. There are two exceptions to this rule.
The first exception are states where no polls were conducted entirely or partially in the last 30 days. Every state has at least one poll.
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than one poll in a state over the last thirty days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
As we move closer to the election and more data becomes available, the time frames for polls included in the averages will decrease.
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