Gallup: Big Bounce for Obama

by: fladem

Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 13:41


As noted in the quick hit by Kal, the most recent Gallup tracking has Obama up 6, up from a tied race a week ago.  This puts Obama's bounce at 6, or just above the post '92 average of 5.7 points.  Importantly, though, this is BEFORE Obama has given his acceptance speech, and only partially reflects the impact of what was a brilliant night last night. Ramsussen also has noted the beginning of an Obama bounce, though it appears to be smaller in their polling.  

On Tuesday I wrote that I thought the election might be decided by the speeches the Clintons would give.  As of this writing, there is solid evidence to suggest that their performance has given Obama a significant lead.  It is worth noting that at no point during the 2004 Convention did Kerry show anything similar to the bounce that Obama has already received.

Typically Convention bounces tend to fade after a couple of weeks.  This means that typically the second convention's narrative is only partially effected by the success of the first.  There is no time this year, however, for the bounce to fade.  The opportunity exists, therefore, that the GOP Convention will be held within the context of a growing Obama lead.  But their convention lacks the dramatic elements that the Democratic Convention possesed.  As a result, it appears increasingly likely to me that Obama will carry a lead into September.  

The latest Gallup tracking:

fladem :: Gallup: Big Bounce for Obama

Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Gallup: Big Bounce for Obama | 47 comments
Simple tracking poll math points to the bounce growing even further in tomorrow's number (4.00 / 6)
The current +6 number still includes Obama's bad single-day number from Monday, which was responsible for McCain taking a 2-point lead on Tuesday.  But starting with tomorrow's Gallup tracking number, that bad Monday will drop out of the sample.

Remember that a tracking poll "bounce" from one day to the next is entirely an indication that the single day number for the previous day was better than the number from three days ago that is now dropping out.  So the big bounce we're seeing today (45-44 yesterday to 48-42 today) means that Obama had a significantly better day yesterday in the polling than he did on Sunday.  

You are dead right (4.00 / 1)
I would guess Obama's lead will be within 8 to 10 tomorrow.

And that poll will come out right on top of McCain naming their nominee.

[ Parent ]
yes (0.00 / 0)
Since the average went up 5 net points today, it had to be 15 net points better than Sunday's day of polling.

And this doesn't include the Clinton, Biden, or Kerry speeches. Polling for the Gallup tracker ends in the early evening.  

[ Parent ]
This is the Bounce after Days 1 + 2 (4.00 / 1)
This really doesn't even reflect the speeches of Pres. Clinton, Sen. Kerry, and Sen. Biden.

A 6 point bounce through half the convention is very good news.

I look forward to Saturday's through Monday's numbers, which will give us the true idea of where things stand heading into Zombiefest @ St. Paul.  

It definitely doesn't reflect of any of last night's speeches (4.00 / 1)
Including the ones you mentioned: Kerry, Biden, the Billster.

Today's 3-day tracking number is the first to reflect any reaction to Hillary's Tuesday night speech (i.e. the single-day results for Wednesday).

[ Parent ]
After all the hand-wringing... (0.00 / 0)
...around here after the first couple of days, nice to have some vindication for the early week folks, especially Michelle Obama, Ted Kennedy, Dennis Kucinich, Brian Schweitzer and, of course, Hillary.  

"This ain't for the underground. This here is for the sun." -Saul Williams
[ Parent ]
Fun with math (4.00 / 1)
Well, it's more fun when you're ahead in the polls...

My back-of-the-envelope estimate for the single-day sample yesterday is something like 50-39 Obama.  The math seems to be pointing to a possible 9-10 point Obama lead in the 3-day tracking after the convention (of course, if the numbers fall short of this, I disavow all knowledge of the contents of this comment).  

Any other pencil-necked number geeks wanna play along and guess what day-to-day numbers are behind all of this?  

One possibility... (4.00 / 3)
Keep an eye on the fact that Obama was down by 2 on Tuesday and tied on Monday and Sunday. One possibility:

Friday: Tied
Saturday: O+2
Sunday: M+2
Monday: M+6
Tuesday: O+11
Wednesday: O+13

This would mean Obama has recieved a 17 to 19 point swing over the past couple of days.

Of course, the accuracy of our numbers notwithstanding, the fact remains that Obama has had a very good week and is getting a bounce out of Denver.

[ Parent ]
Good stuff (0.00 / 0)
With swings as big as we're seeing--and with a lot of stability in the days prior to the period we're talking about--your guesses are almost certainly right in the ballpark.  

Your math is also a good demonstration of the entire point of a tracking poll: averaging out over a few days to smooth out the effects of a possibly random swing in one day.  But it also has the effect of "masking" (at a glance) some possibly seismic shifts from one day to the next.  

[ Parent ]
if this is true, doesn't it suggest that... (4.00 / 1)
michelle obama's speech was what did it?  
[ Parent ]
Also Hillary's n/t (0.00 / 0)


Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
sure, hillary's too, but if i'm reading kal's post correctly, (0.00 / 0)
it appears that obama had a +17 point swing on tuesday (meaning, after michelle's speech), and a +2 point swing on wednesday (after Clinton's speech).  

of course, i'm not smart enough to really understand how to extrapolate the gallup day-to-day results from the rolling averages, so there may be other possibilities in terms of when the bounce happened that i'm not discerning, but it seems to me that michelle's speech may have won over more waverers than clinton's (whose speech then would have solidified these people's support for obama, not a small accomplishment of course....).  

i actually wouldn't be surprised if michelle had the biggest impact of all.  her speech was amazing, the kids were super-cute, and people like to know that the president is a loving parent and spouse.  

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be surprised at all... (4.00 / 2)
If the Republican convention has much lower ratings than the Democratic party convention.

Depressed base + no drama = few people watching.

People tuned in to our party to see if Clinton would steal the nomination and make a break for it. What reason does the average voter have for watching Republicans talk about 9/11 and McCain's experience as a POW? Where's the hook? Where's the drama?

also (4.00 / 2)
People may, understandably, be more worried about Gustav than a political convention, especially if there's a serious aftermath.
[ Parent ]
Which is why (4.00 / 1)
I think they are making a mistake by naming their VP tomorrow.  That will leave them with no drama.

My instincts are telling me, by the way, that their nominee will be Kay Baily Hutchinson.  They need drama, and naming a woman may be the only way to get it.  

[ Parent ]
Or Lieberman... (4.00 / 2)
That would bring the drama, but in a "southern state walk-out" kind of way.

Nothing quite like a pro-choice Jew on the ticket to get the base riled up!

[ Parent ]
man would I love that (4.00 / 1)
Nothing would bring McCain's republican support down to 70% like a Lieberman pick. And he just cannot win with 25% of his party staying home. There just aren't enough republicans in this country to make up for that kind of loss.
[ Parent ]
Kay Bailey (4.00 / 1)
hasn't been vetted apparently.

It will either be Romney or Pawlenty.  

[ Parent ]
If its Romney (4.00 / 1)
the video of the Florida debate where Romney questioned McCains truthfulness will be devistating.  
[ Parent ]
I don't think so (4.00 / 1)
Fact is, Hutchinson is pro-choice, and with the Huckabee wing of the party already upset with McCain flip-flopping, making her VP would definitely cause a massive backlash. Plus, it wouldn't pick up that many women votes, since as we've seen, Obama is making even larger gains with female voters (he now is doing better than Gore or Kerry), thus proving McCain's Hillary ads ineffective, and he knows this, so I am not sure what he thinks he would gain from it, beyond a little publicity (and with female voters behind Obama, this won't do much).

Former Edwards Supporter, Obama Supporter since January 30, 2008
[ Parent ]
Just wondering... (0.00 / 0)
Haven't paid attention to the GOP schedule. I assume Bush is going to speak? That should pretty much drive away viewers for the whole 4 days. Even better if both Bushes speak.
[ Parent ]
Have to be careful here... (0.00 / 0)
I think the RNC has the chance to produce some really dramatic swings.  A good chunk of the same people that are being persuaded right now with the DNC can probably be persuaded by the RNC.  That means that we could actually see a startling collapse in Obama's support, as a bunch of people who just decided to go with him suddenly decide to go with McCain.

But, with that being said... I'm feeling better about the direction of things now than I was earlier this week.

Possibly, but... (4.00 / 1)
...if a lot of what we're seeing now is a unity/excitement bounce within the ranks of Dem voters, then the GOP convention won't be able to turn it all back around.  For instance, wavering Hillary supporters who are being convinced by her direct appeal to them are not likely to be unconvinced by anyone else, and certainly not by the Republicans.
[ Parent ]
I could have inserted the usual disclaimers (0.00 / 0)
about this being one night and only one poll.....

[ Parent ]
Depends if they can (4.00 / 1)
keep milking the "hero" sob story some more. That's the only emotional card they have, and everybody's heard it ad nauseum. The only other thing they've got is bigtime negative attacks, and I'm starting to think the Dems have played it right by insisting on being the grownups in the room.

It's hard to see why anybody would be interested outside the true believers and political junkies. OTOH, if they get enough swiftboating soundbites into the media, who knows who might be persuaded. I'm betting Obama stays in the lead from here to election day.

[ Parent ]
Yeah (0.00 / 0)
I'm worried that they're going to all out at Obama as an empty suit. And they're good at this negative shit -- they'll get red in the face and repeat it 15,000 times over four days.

And they'll make shit up, too. Expect to hear 15K reps of Obama raising taxes on anyone making 42K or higher. This one appears to be made of whole cloth but what the hell.

I always underestimate the ability of Republicans to make flung shit stick to the wall.

[ Parent ]
No. It feels more like dispelling myths. (4.00 / 2)
Michelle's speech and Hill's speech just dispelled myths. Broke them, craptastic lies sent in emails and driven by the corporate media, were set aside, and Obama's appeal feels restored to some worriers. As opposed to switching back and forth.

Just wait till Putin's accusations reach kitchen tables.

Change
"We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.

[ Parent ]
Ah, this makes me feel a little better (4.00 / 3)
Clinton voters coming home, mebbe.

Now combine a 10 point bounce with Mitt Romney as POW's running mate, and I might even feel good.

yeah (4.00 / 2)
Someday I'd really like to experience an LBJ or FDR type Democratic landslide. Never liked close contests.
[ Parent ]
'96 was pretty good (4.00 / 1)
never worried once after mid-September.

But an LBJ size blowout would be nice to see...

[ Parent ]
but he's not an FDR or LBJ type of politician (0.00 / 0)


"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller
[ Parent ]
I said someday, not this day. (0.00 / 0)
Wasn't talking about Obama.
[ Parent ]
call it the hillary bump (4.00 / 2)

i can tell you (0.00 / 0)
one less viewer the gop convention will have, i stopped watching paint dry many years ago, besides brown rice is more nutritional then white rice any day.
Plus (4.00 / 5)
What a stupid weekend to hold the convention. Monday, Labor Day? Yahright, like Americans will be tuning in to that nonsense (esp. with a college football game on Monday night) on a holiday after drinking all day long outside.

Thursday night, NFL opening night? Watch 'Skins@Giants, and then flip over to McCain? I think not.

Very smart maneuvering by the Obama campaign to hold the convention so late to force McCain's hand like this.  

[ Parent ]
There are up against (4.00 / 2)
not one but TWO football games, and their target demo is lower middle class whites.

They shouldn't have gone after Labor Day.

[ Parent ]
I hate to wish it on Gulf Coast residents, but (4.00 / 1)
I just read that Hurricane Gustav may hit the Gulf Coast next week during the Republican convention, and maybe even pass through Guantanamo Bay first, to add a little extra to its political statement.

I can't think of a more apt reminder/reality-check to accompany the planned charade in MN than a Gulf Coast hurricane that reminds us of Bush and McCain indulging in birthday cake while the citizens of New Orleans faced Katrina's deadly wrath.  

If this actually happens next week, I'd hope that the irony (and reality) wouldn't be lost on the mass media and pundit class (not to mention American voters).  

Maybe its Mother Nature's way of giving us a little help so we can respond in kind after taking back control of the federal government in November.

Against a Gulf Coast hurricane backdrop, it seems possible that McCain could experience a negative bounce, especially if Obama hits one out of the park tonight.

Wishful thinking perhaps, but not out of the question.

I wouldn't wish a hurriance (4.00 / 3)
on anyone, particularly on NOLA.  They are horrible, and my hope is Gustav gets sheered.

But the irony will be obvious to all.

[ Parent ]
Agreed (4.00 / 1)
My comment was insensitive to the possibility of real suffering (all the more so given that I've got a recently widowed mother in S. FL).  Let me restate that my hope is for the symbolism and irony to be obvious without the damage.  As you note, the folks in that region have suffered more than their share.  My apologies to all of them for thinking like a Republican strategist.
[ Parent ]
Nobody cheers for a hurricane, but... (0.00 / 0)
...in this case, the unprincipled GOP-style strategist would probably advise the Dems to cut an ad tying McCain with Bush's Katrina ineptitude even if Gustav does cause some serious damage.  It would be fairly shameless and utterly exploitative, but quite possibly very effective as well.
[ Parent ]
I understand (0.00 / 0)
As a floridian with personal experience in these monsters, my first reaction is always about the people.    
[ Parent ]
I see no reason to expect the bounce to last (4.00 / 1)
Especially given McCain's plan to step all over Obama's speech with an ad speaking directly to Obama airing in battleground states - perhaps DURING the speech, and McCain's vp nomination happening tomorrow.

It seems clear that the goals of the election are going to be to strongly convince voters on the issues - because there isn't going to be much movement of the respective "bases" - McCain's commercial isn't going to move democrats, but it will rally republicans, and keep independents undecided - and the republicans have the last say with their convention - likely to be just as emotional, if not historic. Moreover - many on the republican side are content with mouthing lies for the media and for the public - knowing full well that rebuttals are never as strong, and never carry as far as the original lie  (That was why the puma nutcases put that lie out on MSNBC - and I've no doubt that some republican operatives fed them the misinformation.).  

So the goal for Obama and team will be to make it so that the base holds - and to make it so that people feel passionately that voting for McCain is voting to destroy the country (Steny Hoyer's remarks notwithstanding).  That idea needs to be raised to a passion - especially for new voters - it needs to be fully understood what is at stake - that no matter how good a person McCain is (and he's not much of a good person, no matter what Joe Biden says), McCain will destroy the country.  That is entirely what McCain's campaign is about - the argument is that Obama will wreck the country.

Finally - GOTV efforts need to focus not only on new voters, but on existing registrants - a full out educational campaign about how to vote, where to go, when, tips, etc., needs to be distributed aggressively. New voters struggle with this, and give up if it seems too hard - and if they think their vote won't make much of a difference.  We saw some of that in late primaries - African Americans not showing up to the polls in the numbers that would have put Obama over the top in some cases.  Philly didn't turn out as strongly as it could have for Obama, for instance.

In short - I don't think I care much about the so-called convention bounce - I don't think it will mean much nor hold.  I care much more that Obama strengthens his base, ensures that slow, stubborn, skeptical voters actually show up, and articulates a convincing argument that McCain's direction is wrong for the country.  

QT

Visit the Obama Project


WindOnWater.net



McCain would make a fatal mistake (4.00 / 2)
to announce his VP during Obama's speech.  The disrespect to the history of the occasion in terms of where we've come in 45 years since MLK's speech, and the general assholeness of announcing during a Democratic nominee's speech would turn off Dems and independents alike.  The backlash would be huge.

John McCain won't insure children
[ Parent ]
One would hope (0.00 / 0)
but I will point out that there is already a counter backlash that I'm actually experiencing in real life.  There are some whites who are not at all happy about the march of history.

And - I didn't say the vp announcement would be during Obama's speech - that's supposed to be tomorrow.  McCain is planning a negative ad where HE speaks back to Obama: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

QT

Visit the Obama Project


WindOnWater.net



[ Parent ]
here is the thing about mccain's 'negative ad': (0.00 / 0)
it has a very great chance of being 'off,' since they had to produce it before seeing obama's speech.  
[ Parent ]
Yes except that all you describe ios already happening. (0.00 / 0)
Including the antiObama ads during the convention, and the 'bounce' happened anyway. I think the word is not "bounce" but "tide."

Be comforatble and energized the Gallup polls are asking people from four days ago till yesterday afternoon, tomorrows gallup will be for three days ago and will include last nights speeches, but not Obama's speech tonight.

Gallup will be up again tomorrow, and up again the day after.

That is what we are looking toward, that is not a bounce, but a tide.

Change
"We must break up the banks and never again let them get so big that they distort our politics and take down the economy.

[ Parent ]
Gallup tracking, good when it's good (4.00 / 1)
Yesterday, from pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal on the David Plouffe's reaction tightening in the national polls:

"The Gallup Daily tracking poll is apparently a particular sore point. When asked whether they were unhappy that the Biden announcement had not produced a bounce in national polls, Plouffe shot back: "How do you determine a bounce. . . from the Gallup Daily?" The Gallup Daily, he added is "something we don't pay attention to," he said again."

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...

Gallup: Big Bounce for Obama | 47 comments
Donate to Open Left







QUICK HITS

Friends of the Earth thanks the OpenLeft community for the ideas you generate and your contributions to the progressive movement.
As an anti-spam measure, there is a 24-hour waiting period after registering before new users can comment.
blog advertising is good for you
blog advertising is good for you
LIBERAL INSTITUTIONS
STATE BLOGS
SEARCH

   

Advanced Search

Home | RSS/XML Feed | Register | Contact

  © OpenLeft 2007-2009, Powered by SoapBlox