Low Expectations For Obama's Speech-Good!

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Aug 28, 2008 at 15:06


In a media coup reminiscent of the way Kerry somehow managed to successfully lower expectations before his debates with the greatest Presidential word mangler of all-time, by some miracle the expectations for Obama's acceptance speech at Invesco Field have been lowered. Check out these headlines:

I have my own headline: "On Eve Of Obama Speech, Concern Trolling Reaches Record Levels." In this case, however, I actually don't mind the concern trolling. The big payoff a candidate can receive in terms of media commentary is to engage in a seemingly risky move, but then beating expectations. Without the very real media perception of risk for tonight's speech, it would be virtually impossible for Obama to beat expectations. Now, thanks to the heavy dose of concern trolling, he shouldn't have much difficulty defeating expectations.

My confidence in the last sentence comes from my inability to understand exactly why the stadium setting is any riskier than the convention setting. Obama has spoken before huge crowds before--even bigger than this one--and nothing has happened. Further, given that most of the people in the audience will be people who traveled to Denver in order to promote Democrats, it will be an extremely pro-Obama crowd. Yet further, as I explained yesterday, McCain's "celebrity" attacks on Obama aren't actually working, as Obama's favorables have risen throughout the summer. No matter what conventional wisdom says, McCain has risen by improving his own image, not by damaging Obama's.

So really, I don't see any big risk tonight, even though I am glad that journalists and pundits do. The best position to be in is when the media sets low expectations for you. At that point, you are pretty much guaranteed to rise to the occasion.  
Chris Bowers :: Low Expectations For Obama's Speech-Good!

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Low Expectations For Obama's Speech-Good! | 11 comments
risk taking (0.00 / 0)
Many people consider risk taking to be an aspect of leadership.

This narrative plays very well for Obama.

The truth about Saxby Chambliss

aren't the talking heads saying "Obama risks being too good"? (0.00 / 0)
or, to be more fair, that he's going to come across as a presumptuous (confident) celebrity (popular) full of fluff (good speaker)?

basically, the better he does, the "worse" he does according to the pundits

Steny Hoyer = black belt in political jiujitsu? (0.00 / 0)
An interesting scenario to contemplate...and immediately discard.

Still, it's gotta be a truism that a sudden rash of concern-trolling just before a near-certain success (convention acceptance speeches almost always go over well in the first place, and then there's Obama's notable gifts as a speechmaker) will play itself out as a net positive.

I'm doing my part... ;) (0.00 / 0)
I'm doing my part to tamp down expectations.  There will be no bounce, the speech will be "just another one" and it will be a speech only to please the crowd - no real meat.

(How'd I do?)

QT

Visit the Obama Project


WindOnWater.net



Has Obama... (0.00 / 0)
every given a bad speech when it mattered?  I mean that as a genuine question.  Not in 2002, not in 2004, not throughout this campaign.  He steps up on these stages always.  Hopefully he'll be clutch enough that we can call him Mr. November.
In a word, no. (0.00 / 0)
Expecting Obama to flub an opportunity like this is even more hopeless than betting against Tiger Woods, hoping he'll blow the final putt in a championship playoff.  Not gonna happen.
[ Parent ]
Great, except that you just raised expectations (0.00 / 0)
I hope you're happy.  By debunking the reason for the lowered expectations, you've now single-handedly raised them.

Now, it will be difficult for Obama to live up to your high standards.

(Except that I've saved the day by responding with this comment, lowering the expectations once more.

....

Except that my last sentence now has ruined it all.

Except..  

Soft bigotry, anyone? (0.00 / 0)
Hilarious!
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama will make his acceptance speech on August 28, 2008 at Invesco Field at Mile High, home of the NFL's Denver Broncos. The stadium is perched 5,280 ft. (1 mile) above sea level; NFL players through the years have had difficulty dealing with the physical and mental demands of competing with less air to breathe. The thin air will also pose a challenge both to Obama and his supporters in the stands, many of whom are likely to experience a disorienting combination of light-headedness and drowsiness, symptoms of time spent well above sea level.

"It will require a major adjustment, though I don't want to be giving anything away," said Denver Broncos icon and staunch Republican John Elway. "It will hit him as soon as he comes out of the tunnel onto the field -  we used to see it in our opponents' eyes, the look of desperation when you're suddenly fighting for air. The combination of adrenaline and lack of oxygen is particularly deadly, as the exhilaration quickly turns into dizziness, then into light-headed euphoria, followed by vertigo and complete disorientation  - when we saw the other team unable to form a huddle, we knew we had 'em.  If Obama doesn't acclimate himself, he won't make it to the second quarter."
http://www.sportsmansdaily.com...

 

the risk is to undecided voters (0.00 / 0)
I flew to Denver with a Republican woman from San Diego next to me.  She was an old fashioned Republican.  She was appalled by the vicious anti Obama emails friends sent her.  She decided she could vote for him...until he went to Europe.  I asked why she was now changing her mind...

2 things...not visiting the soldiers which only reenforced what she felt was the arrogance and hubris of the speech in Berlin.

The celebrity attacks were very effective because Obama and his campaign set himself up as either one or all of these thngs a ....a trivial rock star, unserious and frivioulous...or worse a cultlike political figure...this plays into that...

Berlin made her dislike him...because she said he was  arrogant and grandiose. I am quoting a woman voter he had but than lost.

That's the danger.

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller

Did you ask... (0.00 / 0)
...if she voted for George W. Bush in the last election? Would have been interesting to have a response to that. If she answered "yes," I would have asked her to explain why...and maybe even how she feels about that vote in hindsight.

"This ain't for the underground. This here is for the sun." -Saul Williams
[ Parent ]
she did vote for him (0.00 / 0)
but she liked obama...she was exactly the type of voter he has been wooing throughout his campaign.

Now he was doing big ralllies before, his campaign has this sweeping adoring crowd shots earlier in the campaign....but they had not been attacked in that way before.  Now the McCain attacks have transmogrified something she liked or ignored into a negative.

I never liked his early ads...for just this reason....  

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller

[ Parent ]
Low Expectations For Obama's Speech-Good! | 11 comments
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