Tuesday Afternoon Election News

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Aug 14, 2007 at 15:37

• In the first six months of 2006, Democratic Party Committees outraised Republican Party Committees $111.5 million to $108.8 million. That is a 98% increase for Democrats from 2003, and a 22% decline for Republicans from 2003. Overall, Democratic Committees now have "$50.9 million cash on hand and debts of $11.7 million, and Republican party committees had $31.8 million in cash on hand and debts of $6.4 million."

• In IL-14, former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert is retiring, making this lean Republican district (PVI of R +5) a serious pickup opportunity in 2008. There are currently three Democrats in the campaign, "Bill Foster, a scientist and businessman; Jonathan Laesch, who took 40 percent of the vote as the 2006 Democratic nominee against Hastert; and Jotham Stein, a lawyer." Three Republicans are expected to join them:

  The Republican field in the Feb. 5 primary election almost certainly will include state Sen. Chris Lauzen; dairy executive Jim Oberweis, who lost Republican primaries for senator in 2002 and 2004 and for governor in 2006; and Geneva mayor Kevin Burns.

  Prairie State Blue will be a key local blog for this campaign.

• The Oregon Democratic establishment has apparently decided that Jeff Merkley is their man against Gordon Smith, and they are lining up behind him:

  Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) and former Governor Barbara Roberts announced yesterday that they would serve as co-chairs for the Senate campaign of state House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who is hoping to unseat two-term Republican incumbent Gordon Smith. Steve Novick, a Democratic activist from the Portland area, is also in the race. However, party officials continued to look for a candidate after Novick had declared, and now the party establishment appears to be lining up solidly behind Merkley.

• Mitt Romney spent between $500 and $1,000 per vote on the Ames straw poll. However, as free spending has he has been so far, money is not a real problem for someone worth $200M, and who made $15M last year alone.
  
  
• A new national poll from ARG shows Clinton still ahead of the rest of the Democratic field (July numbers in parenthesis):
  
  Clinton: 36 (38)
  Obama: 21 (25)
  Edwards: 16 (16)
  Richardson: 7 (3)
  Biden: 4 (2)
  Others: 4 (4)
  Unsure: 12 (12)
  
  So, upward movement for Richardson, especially among men, among whom he scored 11%. On the Republican side, Romney is gaining:
  
  Giuliani: 27 (30)
  Romney: 16 (10)
  Thompson: 16 (17)
  McCain: 13 (14)
  Gingrich: 7 (8)
  Others: 8 (6)
  Unsure: 14 (11)
  
  Interestingly, there is also a massive gender gap on the Republican side. Among, Romney and Giuliani are tied for first. Among women, Giuliani holds a crushing 34-19-11-10 lead over McCain, Romney and Thompson respectively.

This is an open thread on elections.