Of course (0.00 / 0)

CNN is using its poll as resounding evidence that Obama got no convention bounce.  I've heard that CNN polls are highly flawed, so it's upsetting that this story is on their most emailed list.  Doesn't it behoove news organizations to look at polling trends as a whole?

Also, it stands to reason that people think more of  Democrats and less of Republicans when they've had four days of eloquent speakers detailing why Democratic policies are better than Republican ones. :)

You owe it to yourself to listen to This American Life's fantastic and common-sense explanation of the economic crisis.

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by: whathaveyou @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 21:24:11 PM CDT

CNN (0.00 / 0)

is naturally going to use their own polls, and readers of CNN are going to email CNN's polls.  

The conventional wisdom on openleft seems to be that the convention was solid, and that Palin was an insanely stupid pick.  But the early word I see from the outside world is otherwise.

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by: kanzeon @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 02:02:05 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good Diary, But Could You Make It Easier On The Eyes? (0.00 / 0)

Say with color codes like "bgcolor=C4C5ED" and "bgcolor=F0C0C0"?  And maybe loose the "small" text?

I'm really happy to get this good news, and I want to bask in it, rather than squint.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 21:31:54 PM CDT

McCain (4.00 / 1)

If John McCain can't spot trouble coming from Alaska, then how in god's name can he protect America?

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by: bob5540 @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 21:57:48 PM CDT

Maybe He CAN Spot Trouble (4.00 / 1)

Trouble is, he likes trouble!

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 22:11:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Senator McCain (4.00 / 3)

spent five and a half years with enough trouble for a lifetime--IN PRISON!!!1!1

P.S. Were you aware that Senator McCain was a POW?

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by: Kanamit @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 22:27:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Has there been any study of party-only convention bounces? (0.00 / 0)

Do they have the same limitations as ticket-only bounces?

There's something wonky in each of these polls.  For instance, Obama's favorability in the CBS poll stagnates while his lead expands.  Duh, what?  Do you think there was a growth of Repub hatred for Obama that made gains among Dems and Indies invisible?

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by: eustiscg @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 22:39:49 PM CDT

party only? (0.00 / 0)

I am not arguing this is a "party-only" bounce, only that the most pessimistic polling outfit since the DNC also found this large movement in party approvals.

Several other polling firms have found Obama got a bounce.  I don't have access to those polling internals but I don't think they asked about party approval, which is too bad.  CNN did.

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by: Daniel De Groot @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 23:06:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And just a week ago... (0.00 / 0)

...I was challenged to explain how the Democratic Brand could be strong when the approval rating for Congress is so low.

I too strongly encourage candidates to embrace the party label and stand tall arguing for the principles it (we) stand for.  I have both a lack of understanding and dislike for the candidates who are actively seperating themselves from the party brand and/or the parties presidential nominee.

I for one would like the party to note the candidates doing so and be certain they are not the Democratic Nominees in 2010.

In fairness, if the party brand was weak, I would still advocate for candidates to wear it proud and stand tall arguing for the ideals of the Democratic Party, that is how you create strength.

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by: mp @ Mon Sep 01, 2008 at 22:55:06 PM CDT

I'm not saying we won't get our heir Rasmussed (0.00 / 0)

These data are useful when reading the Rasmussen tracking poll (which shows a small bounce).  Rasmussen weights by party affiliation so that, after weighting, the fractions of Democrats, Republicans and Independents in the poll are equal to the average fractions in the past 3 months.  The increase in support for the Democratic party after the convention means that self identified Democrats have lower weights now than a week ago.  This explains the smallness of the bounce compared to other polls.

Rasmussen might be right to assume that the Democratic affiliation bounce is temporary, but various people on the web declaring the convention a flop because of the small Obama bounce as of yesterday (not so small today) are performing the correction twice.

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by: rjwaldmann @ Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 12:01:37 PM CDT