The current projection shows a Democratic gain of 12-18 seats, which would result in a majority of somewhere between D 248-187 R to D 254-181 R.
In 2006, I had the best forecast of Democratic pickups in the nation, predicting not only the total number, but also where they would come from. Then again,. I went slightly off the rails by also forecasting 3 Republican pickups, and of course none happened. This time around, I have a similar worry. Currently, I forecast 6-7 Republican pickups, partially offsetting the 19-24 Democratic pickups. That 6-7 number feels very high given the that Democrats have scored 33 consecutive pickups without giving a single one back. Or, maybe, the odds just don't favor us as much as they once did after such a long winning streak.
I don't expect everyone, especially other House forecasters, to agree with everything in my forecast. In particular, I bet my take on KY-02, PA-03 and PA-15 really stick out. However, I stand by them, given my methodology, which I explain in the extended entry.
My basic forecasting strategy is to list the most relevant, publicly available data for each campaign on a single line of a spreadsheet. That way, campaigns can be viewed at a glance, and easily compared to each other. Once all of the data is compiled, certain bits of data are give more weight than others:
Polls trump all else. If there is a recent, non-partisan poll on a campaign very little else is taken into consideration in the forecast. The one exception I made for this was CO-04, where a non-partisan poll showed Democrat Betsy Markey ahead by 7%, but where I only forecast a toss-up.
If polls are either inconclusive or lacking, I look at the 2006 result, combined with the partisan inclinations of the district. For my money, this is the surest way to tell if a seat is potentially competitive or not. This also explains PA-15, which is a lean Dem district where the incumbent only defeated an underfunded, write-in challenger by 10% in 2006. Sam Bennett starts the campaign within single digits of Charlie Dent, so I like her chances quite a bit.
If that information is still inconclusive, I look at money figures combined with a checklist of three factors:
If the seat is open, which levels the playing field in terms of name ID
If the challenger is running a second time, which helps close the name ID gap
If the incumbent is a freshman, which is a smaller advantage than other incumbents enjoy
Basically, this step is trying to figure out how much money is needed to compete in the district.
Now, there is rarely enough information to forecast individual House campaigns, so what I do is eyeball the above data, and try to group together seemingly similar campaigns. For example, all of the seats where a Democratic pickup looks significantly more likely than not are placed in "Lean Democrat," and all of the campaigns that look about even are placed in "toss-up." I then allocate a certain percentage of each category grouping to each party, and viola, we have the forecast.
It is far less scientific than I would like, but that also makes it fun. Let me know what you think, and look forward to regular updates between now and Election Day. Enjoy!
Update: Thanks to those of you who are pointing out some errors. I will have this all fixed up for the next forecast update.
As an anti-spam measure, there is a 24-hour waiting period after registering before new users can comment. blog advertising is good for you
blog advertising is good for you
