We are now nearly two weeks into the convention and vice-presidential season. By this point, I have heard more opinions on the quality of the various picks and of various speeches to last me another four years. Also, I am seeing an increasing number of progressives online argue that Palin's speech will give the Republican ticket a boost. Some go even further, and argue that Palin has generally been a benefit to the McCain campaign.
As far as the first claim goes, the jury is still out. Tracking polls won't include responses post-Palin until tomorrow morning. However, given that Monday was a very good day in the tracking polls for Obama-Biden, it is likely that McCain will gain 1-2% in the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls tomorrow. Also, Palin's speech scored a huge audience, which could help Republicans, too (or hurt them, if they watched Giuliani's speech first). Currently, Obama leads by 7% in Gallup, and 5% in Rasmussen.
The second claim, that Palin has generally been a benefit to the Republican ticket, can be quantifiably shown to be false. One need only to look at the national polling trend chart at Pollster.com to see this (more in the extended entry): |
There is a clear, sharp, upward spike for Obama over the last week. One week ago, he only led by 1.6% (46.5%-44.9%), but now he currently leads by 5.2% (49.1%--43.9%), for a net gain of 3.6%. This bump coincided both with the selection of Palin as McCain's running mate, and also with Obama's acceptance speech at the Democratic convention. Surely, both played a role in Obama's rise, but it can be shown that Palin actually played a bigger role.
The key piece of data to show this is the comparison of the tracking polls released on Tuesday, and those released on Monday. This is because, one would assume, Friday the 29th should have been the day that Obama benefited the most from his convention speech. By Saturday, the news cycle had come to be entirely dominated by Palin, and reports on Obama's speech were quickly reduced in number. By Monday, it was all Palin, all the time. So, by comparing two tracking polls, one with Friday's numbers, and another where Friday's numbers were replaced by Monday's numbers, we can see if Monday or Friday was a better day for Obama. If Monday was a better polling day for Obama than Friday, then that means news about Palin's selection was actually even more favorable to Obama than his own convention speech.
In the Rasmussen poll, Obama rose from a 49%-46% in the tracking poll conducting Friday through Sunday, to a 51%-45% lead in the tracking poll conducted Saturday through Monday. With Monday's numbers replacing Friday's numbers, Obama went up 3% in the tracking poll, meaning that he performed between 7%-11% better on Monday than on Friday. In the Gallup poll, the story is similar. Obama rose from a 49%-43% lead in the tracking poll that was conducted Friday through Sunday, to a 50%-42% lead in the tracking poll that was conducted Saturday through Monday. This means that Obama polled between 4-8% better on Monday than on Friday in the Gallup poll.
Between the two polls, Obama polled 6-9% better on Monday than he did on Friday. That is a huge, negative swing away from McCain because of Palin. It is hard to imagine any sort of bounce that can wipe away that initial damage she caused. At this point, breaking even will be difficult. For Palin to post a net gain for the Republican ticket will be virtually impossible.
In conclusion, while it remains to be seen if Palin's speech will help McCain close the current 5.2% national gap, given where the campaign was when Palin was selected, overall she has been a net drag on the Republican ticket. The reason I point this out is that constant, subjective interpretations of the quality of speeches from pundits of all stripes goes very tiring. By this point, after weeks of VP and convention analysis, the polls are the only pundits I want to hear. |
