Huffington Post has a story about Democratic Voter Registration gains:
Democrats Post Big Gains In Voter Registration
JULIE PACE and STEPHEN OHLEMACHER | September 6, 2008 03:19 PM EST |
CLAIRTON, Pa. - Five days a week, Linda Graham trolls tattered neighborhoods of this once thriving steel city outside Pittsburgh for unregistered voters she can sign up as Democrats _ one of thousands of unknown volunteers whose work outside the limelight has already altered the basic arithmetic of the November election....
To counter this effort, the Republicans are counting on a formidable, high-tech get-out-the-vote operation that has helped them win the past two presidential elections.
Since the last federal election in 2006, volunteers like Graham combined with the enthusiasm generated by the Obama-Clinton struggle to add more than 2 million Democrats to voter rolls in the 28 states that register voters according to party affiliation. The Republicans have lost nearly 344,000 thousand voters in the same states....
At the Edfge of the American West, there's a post with voter registration figures for this year, for 16 states that register people by party, which accounts for about 2/3 of that registration gain. Although it's obviously incomplete, I thought it could help give us a quick-and-dirty peak at what's happening at ground level, especially when combined with what happened in 2004. |
| First, here are the raw numbers used. Since I'm already fully committed to the "quick and dirty" route, I've left off 3rd party showings in 2004. It seems virtually impossible to project where these votes might go this year, and thus perfectly fine, for rough-and-ready purposes, to leave them out.
IN sheer numbers, the Democrats strongest showings are in two solid blue states, California, and New York, one lean blue state, Oregon, one reddish swing state, Florida, and one seemingly solid red state (by 2004 standards), North Carolina.
Getting rid of the details, just focusing on the net results, and manipulating then a bit, we get the following:
This summary shows only two states where the Democratic registration gains shift a state from red to blue--Iowa, which was key to Obama's nomination, and Nevada, which has shown tantalizing signs of being close, but remains among the truest of true tossups in this cycle.
There are other significant gains, however. Oregon's margin has been made much more comfortable, while Pennsylvania's has grown significantly as well--a potentially much more crucial state. And New Hampshire has gained a bit more than an added 25% percent of the winning margin last time. The gains in Florida and North Carolina are just over 1/3 of what's needed to put them into Obama's column this November, while Colorado gains are roughly 1/2 of what's needed.
While these are clearly only partial totals, the tale they tell is almost certainly true overall: voter registration is necessary, but not sufficient to turn these key contested states from red to blue. GOTV has to finish what VR starts. This is a truism as old as the hills.
Two things stand out, however. The first is sheer magnitude of what was accomplished in Iowa. From the voter registration shift alone, there simply doesn't seem to be any point for McCain to compete there, even though he must. This shows how much can be accomplished by truly intense, long-term organizing. The second is at the other extreme: Alaska, the ony states where Democrats lost ground, though only a little. Yet, despite this fact, before Palin was named to McCain's ticket, the race was seen as a tossup. This tells us that some states can be competetive even without any voter registration gains.
So what to make of these two facts? Simple: there are general principles that apply broadly to most places in most situations, but there is no substitute for knowing the local terrain. This doesn't mean that any local observer necessarily knows more. Filtering out the annecdotal, and grasping the essential is doable, but not easy. But overall, these figures serve to reinforce what we already know: Nevada remains worrisome, when we should have a small, but firm lead there. Florida and North Carolina are challenging, but not out of reach. Iowa and Pennsylvania should be safe.
What these figures don't show is equally important, however--and that's the party orientation of independents, which Pew shows favoring the Democrats by 14/10. An extra 4% of the electorate in virtually any swing state would obviously be crucial, but cannot be counted on. It can, however, usefully be thought of as an unspoken promise that "fortune favors the brave." |
