Five macro results of a McCain victory:
- Large Democratic Congressional gains will not break the working conservative majority. Even if a McCain loss is coupled with large Democratic gains in the House and Senate, the working conservative majority will not be broken. Bush has presented McCain with a path to governing with a Democratic Congress: veto anything you don't like, never respond to any congressional investigations, and secure enough Bush Dogs to pass virtually any legislation you want. Over the past two years, the number of Bush Dogs in the House has actually grown from 40 to 70, and there is no reason to expect that number to shrink under a McCain administration. No Democratic majority will be large enough or tough enough to break that level of conservative support. Even sixty seats in the Senate simply wouldn't be even close to enough, given the large, and continually increasing, numbers of capitulation Democrats.
- The Democratic Party will move to the right, not the left. There is a rather absurd notion among pundits that in defeat, parties often decide to move further away from the center. This just isn't true. Defeat pushes a party toward the winning the party, as Daniel De Groot wrote two months ago. As imperceptible as it might appear, we have even seen this among Republicans over the past two years. Democratic voting unity now surpasses Republican voting unity in Congress, and McCain won the Republican nomination on the backs of primary voters who were either "dis-satisfied" or "angry" with the Bush administration. A McCain victory would push Democrats more toward Republicans, making McCain's job of recruiting
Bush McCain Dogs all the easier.
- The old political narratives will remain in place. The new political coalitions that I wrote about in The End of Bubba Dominance in The Nation will not come into being. White social conservatives will continue to be seen as the dominant swing groups, and as such receive the lion's share of attention from the national parties and national media. Get ready for four more years of "Democrats don't understand middle America" editorials, for example. As such, one of the main anchors keeping our national politics firmly on the right side of the spectrum will not be lifted.
- Clinton will become the 2012 Nominee. Should Obama lose, the "I told you so's" will rain down hard from the Clinton faction within the Democratic Party. Specifically, reinforcing point #3, the focus will be on Obama's failure to win socially conservative white working class voters. Further, with Palin now on the ticket, a McCain victory would result in claims that Clinton could have also won more women voters, thus making her more electable. Combine these factors with the obvious point that a defeated Obama, a disgraced Edwards, and a disgraced Spitzer would leave Hillary Clinton with no serious challengers in 2012. You can pretty much bet that Clinton will be the nominee in 2012 should McCain become President.
- Democrats will shoulder equal blame for national problems. With Democrats in control of Congress for multiple sessions, and with their majorities significantly expanded, the national political environment will no longer be overwhelmingly favorable to Democrats. The country will continue to go down the toilet, but Democrats in Congress will be blamed for it just as much as will the McCain administration. The only congressional gains that Democrats might make will be in the Senate in 2010, because they have to defend so few seats, and in the House in 2012, because they will be able to draw so many new maps. Otherwise, the congressional gains we make in 2008 will be our peak for several electoral cycles.
Overall, even if the country continues to inch to the left due to changing demographics, increasing income inequality, and the failure of right-wing policies, the political infrastructure and center of political power in America will remain firmly entrenched on the right-wing. Our generational chance for a six-year progressive governing window will have been missed, with only a chance at a two-year window still alive in the 2012 elections. A whole host of dangerous policies will come to pass, including the overturning of Roe vs. Wade when John Paul Stevens retires and the Democratic Senate inevitably fails to filibuster his anti-choice replacement (who would probably be an ultra right-wing woman, ala Sarah Palin). The internet will probably be sold of to telecoms, thus putting a serious dent in, if not end the promise entirely, the most progressive political development in decades (not to mention the greatest cultural outpouring in our country's history). Deficits will continue to balloon. Huge residual forces will occupy Iraq for at least another decade. Global warming will worsen. Etc. Etc. Etc.
The only way to stop all of this is to win the presidency. All of the trends that I listed above will be reversed should Obama win. Republicans will move even more toward Democrats. The Democratic Party will move to the left. Socially conservative working class whites will no longer be the most heavily coveted swing voters. Obama will be the nominee in 2012. One thing that will be the same is that we will shoulder all the blame for the country's problems, but at least we will have a chance to pass legislation that will stop those problems first.
There is a lot at stake in this election. I don't know if McCain is the favorite right now, since this could be a very brief polling spike that will reverse in just a few days. However, Obama definitely isn't the favorite right now, because he is losing. These are dangerous, and consequential, times for America.
Update: Since some of you are asking, I didn't mean to imply that there would be anything wrong with Clinton as the nominee. I have as much problem with that as I have with Obama being the nominee. In fact, I would actually be relieved that we would still have a strong candidate for 2012. However, don't expect Clinton to be more progressive in 2012 than she was in 2008. In fact, expect her to be the more right-wing Clinton who showed up toward the end of the primary season.
Update 2: Yes, because I am speculating on what a McCain presidency would mean for the country, that means I am panicking and have given up all hope. Whatever. |
