Thank you (4.00 / 9)

Now can you pass the word to your fellow A list bloggers? I as a lowly no body tried to make this point to Paul Rosenberg today. I even made this point in Matt Stoller's diary.  Why are we writing diaries about Palin and not McCain? I am given all of these excuses, but at the end of the day I think its all emotions. She's new. She's the left's carricature of the evil right. She's a woman so that plays into identity politics. Those are three factors people are wasting time or her, and none of it- not a single part of it- is a coordinated effort to take down McCain because people vote President, not VP nominees.

---

by: bruhrabbit @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 20:36:37 PM CDT

You're a lowly nobody, (4.00 / 1)

and I always read your comments with great interest. So. If you're King of the Leftie Blogs, what's your plan?

I mean, let's lay this out, not just what we don't want, but what we do want--in detailed specifics.

Truth is, you and I might be lowly nobodies, but if we--all of us--develop some sorta detailed strategy to exploit this odd position we inhabit in the political ecosystem,  a strategy that actually makes sense  and look possible, we can get the attention of the A list bloggers easy enough.

We've got a small-but-growing megaphone, here. How do we best use it?

---

by: Joel @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 20:49:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pump those John Stewart videos (4.00 / 6)

he's composing the best "anti-mccain" videos of anyone. this stuff isn't rocket science. why the campaign ad makers can't produce new commercials as stewarts staff can is beyond me. but those are by and far away the best rebuttal to the recent shenanigans of the McCain campaign.

I can't believe I still have not seen these on the front page here at OL.c

what to DO isn't complex or a mystery. call these idiots out on the mat, and make sure you insult them while you are at it. its the doing so that Dems hit the mental block on. think god Biden is involved.

.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

---

by: Will @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:05:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I've made it clear what I think the focus should be on (4.00 / 7)

 until Nov  5 or whevnever everyone votes. this is it:

McCain=Another Failed Presidency

Everything- whether it's Palin, McSame, his temper, his lack of being a maverick- whatever should be brought into line with this messaging.

if it's the economy, McCain will destroy the economy.

if it's Palin, I would say "this is a woman who has said she wouldn't let her own daugher have choice even in the case of rape- this is the extremism of the Republican party and McCain that will destroy our country."

If it's sexism, I would say "they believe in gender rights for one, but not for all women- ask yourself is Palin really for you as a woman? McCain doesn't care about you as a woman. He wants to hurt you family. He wants to destroy America."

If it's jobs, Mccain will lose your jobs.

If it'shealth care, Mccain will hike upt he cost of your healthcare

If it's character, McCain lacks the character for office because he's a hot head

If it's energy, McCain will drill for oil, but you will still be paying more at the pump.

Then I would end with , because mccain means another failed bush presidency.

I wouldn't worry about intellectualizing it. I wouldn't worry about parsing every word to make sure it's factually correct. I would worry about winning. That's it.

I wouldn't leave it, as others are doing to the imagination. Americans are lazy. Americans are dumb. This is a country that will go see the same movie over and over again so long as your tweak the story. This is a country that will  This is a country that will buy the same product so long as you label it as "real" or "fresh" or repackage the same food in a different way- "Yummies- the great snack with bread , mozzerela and tomato sauce." In other words- pizza by a nother name.

This is a country that will watch the same shows over and over again so long as you update it a 'bit.' Take it to the lowest denominator. Don't mince words. Just say it--

If you Elected McCain, he will destroy the country. He will be another failed presidency.

Can we afford another failed presidency under McCain? Pretend as if he's the incumbent. It doesn't matter that he's not.

Not, I disagree with my esteemed colleague. Not he care. He willd estroy our country. Emotional, simply, visceral and winning because it's what people remember.

But, again, that's just me. I only live here.

---

by: bruhrabbit @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:13:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree with all of that, (0.00 / 0)

but my question is, what can we do to push the focus in that direction? Are there specifics things we can do?

---

by: Joel @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:21:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Already Doing It (4.00 / 1)

Look at this ad the DNC is running in Michigan.  Its great and they should take it national.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talk...

---

by: jmnyc @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:53:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

not really (4.00 / 6)

this is up to Obama and his advisors. One of the things I ve learned is realize the limits of what I can do. I can post on random blogs, donate money etc. But that's about it. I have no delusions of grandeur or about what the Democrats think of folks like me, which ain't much. If they did, they wouldn't consistently make teh choices they make because I know if I am thinking it, a lot of others are, and htey have been told about it. I am not trying to be a pessimist here. We each do what we can do. But I m a realist about what that all means.  

---

by: bruhrabbit @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:00:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No no no, you have to evoke images of popular movements (0.00 / 0)

This guy gets it:

http://obamav.com/rebuilding-a...

It's about avoiding the Republican frame and activating Obama's frame.
The more we talk about Obama's experience the more he seems like an insider and the more McCain seems like the agent of change.

We should talk about how McCain's policies takes power from the people and increases the power of the president. Huh? Well, his policies gives the president more power and that is apparent when we talk about civil rights and lobbyists and accountability and caring and community and empathy.

/Gary

---

by: garymeeg @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 08:18:38 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Totally Agree with you list (0.00 / 0)

The campaign is starting to do this as you can see in the DNC ad I linked to in other posts.  It is clearly coordinated with the Obama theme of more of the same.

I am not an expert but you need to do your ads in a bit of an arc where you build to a climax.  You don't want to blow everything now.

The Obama team is using a different strategy of running their ads in battleground states specifically tailored to them rather than nationally or on cable.  It seems smart to me but we'll see if it works.

---

by: jmnyc @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:12:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I am not seeing many Obama ads .. (0.00 / 0)

in the Philly burbs right now .. yet I see McCain ads every half hour ..  and the ads talk about Obama .. and try and say he is a tax and spend liberal .. and also stick Harry Reid(among a few others in there) ... how effective they are .. I don't know

---

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:15:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Considering What Has Happened 2000-2006 (0.00 / 0)

are the Philly suburbs swing territory anymore?  I ask in all seriousness.  You'd know better than me but they seem to have become pretty Dem so maybe the Obama people are spending their $$ elsewhere.  Might be a bad move, not sure.

I have read they are running plenty of ads in Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, etc.

---

by: jmnyc @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 23:15:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

fear (4.00 / 3)

Definitely emotion. She is the personification of everything we hate about the opposition. McCain, while certainly loathsome enough, does not inspire the kind of vitriol that this smug, self-righteous, hypocritical, aeriel-wolf-hunting barbarian fraud does. Therefore the idea of Sarah Palin achieving high(er) political office scares the shit out of us.

With that being said, I think she should basically be ignored and all fire should be focused on McCain and his profound lack of judgment and integrity. Unfortunately (and bizarrely), an integral plank of the Democratic platform is "We believe as Democrats that our opponent is a heroic man of great personal integrity."

Anecdotes are anecdotes, but in talking to my grandparents (who talk like liberals when not talking politics), their answer to every fact I (respectfully) threw at them was some type of statement about McCain being "his own man," a man of great judgment and personal integrity, who is entirely independent of the GOP. "He obviously doesn't like or agree with George W. Bush. He didn't even mention him at his convention!" Democrats' decision to preface every negative attack on McCain with praise for his unimpeachable character has been nothing short of disastrous.

---

by: dave marley @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:13:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

This is it, right here (4.00 / 3)

Democrats' decision to preface every negative attack on McCain with praise for his unimpeachable character has been nothing short of disastrous.

  I have no clue whose idea this was.

  But whoever that was needs to take two months off and take a boat to St. Helena. And if McCain wins, stay there for life.

  Perhaps the worst messaging blunder in American political history.

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

---

by: Master Jack @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:21:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm actually fine with paying attention to Palin (4.00 / 1)

but her insanity needs to be yoked to McCain.  McCain needs to be defined in terms of her.  Every piece of her biography contradicts his brand, whether it is his 'moderate' image, his budget hawk character, his foreign policy credentials, or most of all, his judgment.  It is laid so bare in the person of Palin, the only step that needs to be made is to say exactly what it says about John McCain.

---

by: Valatan @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:23:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Did you hit them with (0.00 / 0)

McCain's choice of Palin proves he is prisoner to the loony Right?

Montani semper liberi

---

by: Sadie Baker @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:07:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Exactly (4.00 / 2)

I think Palin has some talent but she was chosen as distraction to get people to forget McCain is a Repub and has been an enabler of Bush for the last 8 yrs.  Don't let them.  Hammer McCain=Bush.

Want to win, forget Palin and start running ads everywhere like this one the DNC is running in Michigan.  It's great.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talk...

---

by: jmnyc @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:46:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yeah, I certainly (0.00 / 0)

agree with Chris's main point that we should focus on McCain, not Palin, but I had to  chuckle at this line:

I don't know who isn't taking Palin seriously in the progressive blogosphere.

This is coming from a person who wrote a post entitled "This is a Joke, right?"

So, I just watched Sarah Palin's speech on YouTube. I remain agog. Is this a joke? Do they really think this will help them win?

Palin is a total lightweight. She didn't deliver a single negative on Obama, and it is pretty obvious why. The main attack the McCain campaign has been using on Obama is his lack of experience. It simply isn't possible to deliver that negative now with a straight face. It certainly won't be possible for her to deliver any negatives on Obama. The whole thing just feels like a joke.

This is a really, really bad move by McCain. Palin isn't believable as President. She isn't believable in delivering any attacks on Obama, which is why she didn't. She defeats McCain's entire argument to become President: judgment and experience. Further, she is completely unknown, thereby making her a generic Republican in a year when generic Republican polls about 10-20% behind generic Democrat. Her selection has pissed off a lot of Republican insiders. To top it off, we are now presented with the most unbelievable sight of all: Republicans cheering Hillary Clinton. Yeah, people will find that one believable.

Man, this is a terrible pick. Right now, my gut says that Obama will be up by around 8% even after the Republican convention. I could be proven wrong, and this might actually work for McCain. However, Palin completely lacks believability as President, and the choice defies any reason apart from an obvious, pandering political ploy to try and win women voters. Overall, that will probably result in a net negative for McCain's popularity. He is in real trouble right now.

http://www.openleft.com/showDi...

Agog, no less?

Those predictions look pretty rich now, don't they? Okay, okay, there's no crime in being wrong, and perhaps Chris now takes her seriously; but I'd like to know when and why he stopped considering her "a joke."

---

by: david mizner @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 01:18:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maybe in my next post (4.00 / 1)

Since you are digging into my posting history, maybe you should have read my next post:

Palin Is The Perfect Conservative / Republican Pick:

At first I thought Palin was a bizarre pick. However, the more I think about it, she was clearly the perfect Republican pick.

But hey--GOTCHA! Chris's first thought isn't so perfectly formed that it never changes and is fully developed the first time he thinks it.

If you are going to dig through my posts, at least provide persepctive on the full scope. You just dug this up to lcaim that I am a hypocrite, even though I changed my postiion a couple on a fluid situation a couple of hours later. Nice.

---

by: Chris Bowers @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 01:47:51 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

You want a complete picture? (4.00 / 1)

Sure. You've been underestimating her every step of the way: when she was picked you said the pick was "lame." Then, after you heard her speak for the first time, you wrote the above post, calling her "a joke." Then you were dismissive of her convention speech, saying she was just a new face delivering the same old attacks.

I didn't have to dig through your posts to come up with these. I remembered them off the top of my head, because you're one my favorite bloggers, whom I almost always make a point of reading. Loyal, close readers like me don't allow you the luxury of inconsistency (hypocrisy's way too strong a word in this case.)

---

by: david mizner @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 07:45:33 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sarah on C-span in Feb 08 (0.00 / 0)

themoderatevoice.com has a front page story on an interview she did with c-span in February.  She's seems very knowledgeable and well spoken.  I absolutely disagree with her politics, but finally saw what we're up against.

---

by: ktmnyny @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 20:36:49 PM CDT

McCain's willing to lie (4.00 / 5)

 And Obama isn't. That's a big part of the problem right there.

 The other, bigger part of the problem is that there's no Democratic messaging infrastructure calling McCain out on his lies. (Well, there's the blogosphere, but the establishment Dems hate us and don't want to use us, so there's not much we can really do.)

 McCain's support is based on massive misinformation among large swaths of the electorate. Obama has done zilch to conuteract that.

 There's your problem. Obama's messaging, particularly regarding McCain, has been a complete disaster.

  Even Bob Shrum was better than this.
   

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

---

by: Master Jack @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 20:38:55 PM CDT

And it goes right to the heart .. (4.00 / 3)

of the disaster where Obama and Biden call McCain a great American(or whatever nice things they say) before saying that McCain policies suck .. or whatever else they say about McCain's plans  ...  they have to stop ... it's just silly and does nothing to drag McCain's favorables down

---

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:02:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I thought I added it ... (0.00 / 0)

but what we really did .. is our own Rove .. and I mean that in all seriousness .. why we unilaterally disarm .. I'll never know .. the Republicans are never going to disarm .. because that is all they have

---

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:03:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Ugh!! ... (0.00 / 0)

it should be ... what we really need

---

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:04:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

obama lies all the time (4.00 / 1)

he's just lying about the wrong stuff.

---

by: dr anonymous @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:06:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Losing the acceptance speech momentum (4.00 / 2)

How about doing some ads following up and advancing any of the themes from Obama's acceptance speech:

Enough!

Owning their failure.

McCain wrong Iraq/Afghanistan decision making.

Obama actually leading and Bush following.

McCain's not a maverick.

Nation of whiners.

The truth about taxes.

All of these wonderful moments in that speech have just been left hanging, with no paid media follow-up, no development/advancement to keep them in the public discourse. All we get is the same, one-note "more of the same" ads.

It's pathetic. And if it doesn't change Obama is going to lose.

"Don't take much, does it, elected Democrats, to get your balls tucked up." Cf.

---

by: Steve in Sacto @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:50:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, Republicans lie a lot (0.00 / 0)

But McCain seems to have taken it to another level. I attribute this to his extreme military mindset, probably solidified when he was a POW. Remember, in a war, deception is often considered to be a virtue. If you can deceive the enemy and thereby achieve victory, you will be a hero. McCain evidently considers this campaign to be the equivalent of a military campaign, with the enemy as
the majority of the electorate.

In an environment where the majority doesn't think a lot, and news media are not particularly interested in the truth, this will be a very effective strategy.

I don't fault Obama, who has run a strong and truthful campaign. At least the American people will have a clear choice.

It is tough to call a war hero a liar, but Obama is probably going to have to do that in order to win. Other than that, his only chance appears to be a strong message of economic populism. But unfortunately in this world, deception often works (for a while, anyway).

   

---

by: TonyV @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:52:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Palin was the hook (4.00 / 4)

 I think that the novelty of Sarah Palin and the dizzying media coverage of her got a lot of viewers to tune in Wednesday night who otherwise wouldn't have. And then the same expanded audience then spilled over to watch McCain's speech.

 A more "traditional" VP pick would have generated less buzz at the RNC, and kept McCain's Thursday viewership somewhat lower. So in that sense, I think Palin helped McCain significantly.

 I thought McCain's speech, while it had some good moments, was unremarkable and rambling. But he lied a lot, and since Obama hadn't laid the groundwork to destroy his credibility, he got away with his lies.

  So now he's pulling away. American voters just aren't well informed -- and that's the Democratic Party's fault as much as anyone's.
 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

---

by: Master Jack @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 20:49:52 PM CDT

What I can't believe (0.00 / 0)

is that all of those eyeballs that turned in to watch Palin weren't turned off by Rudy.  I still think that speech was scary.  I haven't talked to one person who liked rudy's speech.

---

by: Valatan @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:12:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I Liked Rudy G's Speech (0.00 / 0)

It gave a good insight into how a Republican politician thinks about and responds to the issues facing out nation.

It wasn't pleasant, it wasn't inspiring, it WAS mean and cold-hearted. But I liked it anyway, because it was a glimpse behind the mask.

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

---

by: SpitBall @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:31:14 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Agree with this post (4.00 / 3)

Palin is simply distraction-politics personified. If she were really a huge asset, the McCain campaign would have her on TV 24/7. Any time spent on her is time away from spending on McCain. Bring it back to him (and mock Rick Davis and co. about the infantile handling of Palin at the same time). And bring it back hard. The economy is getting worse. Unemployment is higher this quarter than it's been in years. McCain voted with Bush 90% of the time. This is exactly equal to no change at all and continued misery. Of course McCain wants everyone talking about Palin. It keeps everyone from talking about how rotten everything is.

Don't let him. This is really very simple. Hammer on the economy. On Iraq. On healthcare. And never let up. We only have 60 days.  

---

by: nepats @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 20:50:14 PM CDT

"A diversion!" (0.00 / 0)

(as my wife's and daughter's favorite elf once said, in stating the glaringly obvious)

---

by: mullsinco @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:22:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

bloggers in a tizzy (0.00 / 0)

whats new?

points well made. what person writing or reading any of the big national blogs isn't take all of this seriously? perhaps much too seriously if anything?

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

---

by: Will @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 20:51:25 PM CDT

The Obama campaign ISN'T taking this seriously (4.00 / 2)

 They seem to really believe that staying "above the fray" and launching an avalanche of ebullient praise on McCain is the surefire ticket to victory.

 Maybe he really IS as naive as his critics claim.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

---

by: Master Jack @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 20:57:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Biden and Obama shifted back to economic issues this morning (4.00 / 1)

both on sunday shows played the line "nice snark, but the GOP had nothing in their convention about what they plan to do."

what's the better strategy?

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

---

by: Will @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:07:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

biden this morning (4.00 / 1)

"I heard Sarah Palin and John McCain talk about change," Biden said. "Tell me one single thing they're going to do - on the economy, foreign policy, taxes, that is going to be change. Name me one! This is such malarkey - 90 percent of the time, John votes with the president."

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

---

by: Will @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:00:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

So we're not doomed? (0.00 / 0)

   Good to know.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

---

by: cilerder86 @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 20:54:47 PM CDT

palin is classic bait and switch tactic (4.00 / 2)

Remember that Republicans function based on the "what will piss off liberals most" plan.  That is exactly what Palin is intended to do... make us go into fits of rage and seem like the DFH's we all truly are.  They are just dying for the days when anyone who didn't tow the line seemed like a fringe radical, and we are happily obliging them. She is a box with a bomb inside that we are gleefully unpacking.

No, this doesn't mean we have to take Palin lying down.  Of course she is bad news for a number of reasons.  Rather, it means we have to ignore her and not fall for the bait.  We have to win this election based on the clear cut and dry issues.  Obsessing over Palin does not accomplish it.  

---

by: maiku @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 20:59:11 PM CDT

McCain...300ish house and senate Republicans, and Bush. (4.00 / 1)

We need to be focusing on not just the "big race" but all the down ticket races that can effect "the big race".  We should be focused on the big issues and how wrong the current administration and so many of their candidates are on them.  We need to be talking about Democratic nominees in Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, MN, VA, NY, CA, WI...we need to make it a a national story, the epidemic corruption and deceit that plagues the other side.  Use McCain and Palin as examples, but don't forget about all the battles going on.

In many house districts, Obama will win because the campaign for House carries him, in others, Obama will carry the House candidate to victory.  We can help both by giving them help across the board.

States like Ohio and Virginia are seeing far more activity on the Congressional level then they have in ages, why aren't we talking about any of those candidates and races?

Aside from "Round up" coverage, it seems like only national polling and Palin are getting attention.

National daily tracking polls are 100% useless.  Ignore them and move the hell on.  Focus on winning the house/senate races and states that deliver electoral victory - we need to be aiming for 310+ EV's and push for the big gains in House and Senate - all within reach.

---

by: mp @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:08:10 PM CDT

a bit off (0.00 / 0)

"First, I don't know who isn't taking Palin seriously in the progressive blogosphere. Second, I'm not sure what taking Palin more seriously would entail, exactly. Maybe people don't like her in the progressive blogosphere, but everyone seems to be taking her seriously."

I think there's a difference between taking someone seriously and talking about them all the time as a novelty act or being terrified of them.  Most of the conversation about Palin has been more in the "Britney Spears" sense or the "Jean-Marie Le Pen" sense than the "what does she think U.S. policy in Caucacus should be."

I actually think the 2nd and the 3rd put together are sort of okay?

---

by: dr anonymous @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:11:07 PM CDT

on making Palin too important (4.00 / 1)

was just thinking, one way BO/JB could play this to their advantage is to start talking about being confused about who is running for president on the GOP side. "We thought McCain was running for president, but they sure seem to be focused on promoting Palin, so maybe she's running for president?" as a means to undercut McCain's attempts to be seen as a leader.

just an idea.

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

---

by: Will @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:14:53 PM CDT

and (4.00 / 4)

"we're shocked to say this, but she's even more like George Bush than McCain is. and McCain backs Bush 90% of the time. Terrifying. We really need to know who is running for president on the GOP side."

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

---

by: Will @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:20:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I like it. (0.00 / 0)

Montani semper liberi

---

by: Sadie Baker @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:12:34 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Disagree on who moved the numbers (4.00 / 1)

While the numbers are better for McCain after his speech, I believe Palin gave him the platform from which he could run straight to the center.

I think we should also look at the demographic numbers; prior to Palin's speech, Obama's lead in Rasmussen among women was still 12-14 points.  After that speech, that advantage was trimed in half to six points.  The only thing that has changed after McCain's speech is that his numbers among men improved from +3 to +7.  McCain's advantage among men didn't move after Palin's speech but only after his.

I always thought McCain would beat Obama pretty handily among men and that -3 was likely as good as it was going to get for Obama.  What has created the shift in numbers, in my opinion, has been the decrease in Obama's support among women and probably more specifically white women.  Palin was more likely responsible for this shift among women if you follow the timing in Rasmussen.  I think it is likely that Obama will need to win women by at least Al Gore's margin to win this election.

---

by: OklahomaSonics @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:21:52 PM CDT

Tracking polls are modern-day astrology (4.00 / 1)

There aren't sufficiently good methodologies for incorporating newly registered voters or younger voters who don't have land lines.  No one I know who relies solely on a cell phone will answer 1-800 calls or calls whose numbers are blocked.

The Obama campaign knows exactly what it is doing.  People wanted to panic during the primaries, too; but, the campaign had "the" math (to borrow Beelzebub's little phrase).

Obama is going to win every Kerry state (251 EV's + or -), and also Iowa (+7), New Mexico (+5), and some combination of Nevada (+5), North Dakota (+3), Ohio (+20), Virginia (+13), and Florida (+27) that will get them past 269.  If Obama gets slaughtered everywhere else, it doesn't matter at all.

Trust the campaign.  They are smart enough, tough enough, and skilled enough to have defeated the truly awesome and remarkable Clinton political machine--which had the uniquely talented, brilliant, tough, and quick-thinking Hillary Clinton plus an array of the most experienced political operatives in the business, plus Bill Clinton, plus a built-in fundraising machine--in the primaries.  They have a plan, they have a rapid-response team, they've got money (but, too much is never enough! so dig deep), and they've got the single greatest ground game ever assembled on behalf of a Democrat running for President.  It is that ground game--for which Howard Dean's (and OpenLeft's) 50-state strategy and the Obama campaign's prescience are responsible--that won Iowa for Obama, against incredible odds.

At this stage of the game, all the blog posts in the world will add up to a zero percent difference, except those that urge people to get involved by donating or volunteering.  Registration (for a few more weeks) and then GOTV as never before will make the difference.

Now (and I say this to myself as much as to anybody else), stop reading and start agitating!

---

by: mullsinco @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:44:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh, really? (0.00 / 0)

they have a rapid-response team

    One must admire the Obama campaign's restraint in deploying it. But hey, the polls show that the dry-powder approach is working beautifully. I wouldn't change a thing.

   I won't even ask if there's a plan to attack McCain. Obviously there doesn't need to be one.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

---

by: Master Jack @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:49:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well, (0.00 / 0)

we could always sulk, panic, put our heads in the sand, and stay home on election day, because after all it is hopeless, right?  None of us posting here in the comments has ever run a national campaign.  It is just possible that these people know what they are doing.  The comments remind me of fans who relentlessly critique professional sports coaches.

We are capable of effectuating positive change that will benefit the Obama campaign, but not if we are panicky, defeatist, or planted deeply in our armchairs.  If you really give a damn, why not call the campaign and ask how you can help?

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by: mullsinco @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:55:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh, I forgot... (0.00 / 0)

there's always Nader, too...

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by: mullsinco @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:57:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

but is it enough? (0.00 / 0)

What scares me is that I totally agree that Obama's strategists (unlike, perhaps, Kerry and Gore's) are brilliant and know what they're doing.  Obama and Biden's statements since the convention have been exactly on message, exactly the points we need: focusing on the issues, not taking the bait, etc.  What frightens me though, is that it might not be enough.  Clearly a non-insignificant part of America resonated with the RNC.  Faced with that, what do appeals to reason and the issues do?  My hope is that the debates and the ground game will make those voters who are causing this McCain bump irrelevant.    

It really is a crossroads we're at over what kind of America we live in, an increasingly conservative and reactionary country that prefers Republicans at the presidential level (as has been the case since, say, Nixon) over "scary" liberals, or a country that has decidedly moved to the left as a result of demographic changes and the failure of conservative policies.  I want to be optimistic, but the last 8 years aren't encouraging.  We'll see.

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by: maiku @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 23:13:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

We will indeed see (4.00 / 2)

In the meantime, please take it from me:  I've been a criminal defense lawyer for 16 years, fighting desperate battles against incredible odds, and I never won a trial that I went into thinking I might lose.  I lost some where I went in knowing I would win; but, I won some that would have objectively seemed virtually unwinnable.  In the business we call this achieving "trial psychosis," and it is an indispensible part of the trial lawyer's arsenal.  You simply cannot win unless you go in knowing you are going to win.  A Presidential election is in some ways a jury trial to a jury of 100 million voters.

In a good way, Obama has achieved "trial psychosis"--he knows   he is going to win.  Gore never had it, Dukakis never got it, and Kerry might have had it, but definitely lost it weeks before the general.  Clinton had it--both times.  This gives me hope.  The collective energy of 80,000 people in Mile High Stadium with trial psychosis gives me hope.  Hopelessness is NOT an acceptable alternative.

Turn off, tune out, and DROP IN!  Let's win this thing!

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by: mullsinco @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 23:33:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Endless bleating that McCain is easy to beat (4.00 / 3)

God, we've seen so much of that.  Also, the endless bleating that "we should be winning by 10 points, we should be destroying them"

Yeah, in an alternate universe where everyone has college degrees and is immune from decades of Republican marketing superiority that we've only begun to address in the last 3 years.  

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by: Crab Nebula @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:33:48 PM CDT

True, but... (0.00 / 0)

 ...there's absolutely no reason for Democrats to reinforce the Republicans' marketing superiority by offering effusive praise of McCain ten seconds before timidly criticizing him.

 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

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by: Master Jack @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:08:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

that in itself is not the reason this is close (4.00 / 1)

agree, but this is only one factor out of many why this is close.  the main factors are mccain's brand, created over YEARS, and the repub's negative branding of democrats, which took place over years also.

nobody can undo these things in a single campaign.  and if obama were as negative as mccain, he wouldn't be able to register all these new voters.  Two sides to this coin.  

calling obama's messaging "disastrous" is hyperbolic.

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by: Crab Nebula @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 23:00:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

didn't mean to accuse chris of this (0.00 / 0)

just an observation of many commenters in blogosphere.  

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by: Crab Nebula @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:52:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

We are making the same mistake with McCain we did with Bush (4.00 / 2)

The reason McCain is getting such a good bounce is because we - with the help of the traditional media - set the bar very, very low for him.  While Obama had to blow the roof off the place McCain simply didn't have to drool all over himself when he delivered his speech.  The houses thing didn't help, because is suggested he was a doddering old man who couldn't remember where he left his keys.  McCain comes on National televsion and Voila, he can find his keys!!!  Everybody goes - wow, he's not so bad.  

I actually think Obama and Biden are doing the right thing saying he is a great guy.  If we set him up as evil then we do the same thing that we did with Cheney - who basically would have to publicly peel off somebody's skin in order for him the not make the bar on how nice he has to be.  However, if McCain loses his temper, or comes off as the bastard he obviously is under the stress of the campaign everybody is going to be shocked, because he was supposed to be this incredible bar.  It is never what you do - knowledge is always relative.  It is what you do in comparison to what people thought you were going to do.

I don't think the numbers hold for a couple of reasons.  My guess is that a great deal of the gain was from the South, from states McCain was going to win anyway.  I just want to warn you all, he is going to keep those so this is going to be tight nationally to the very end.  I also think that now people are going to have a higher bar for McCain, so the next time he does something horriffic it is going to have more of an impact.  And I truly believe it is going to slowly sink in that McCain is 72 and according to actuarial tables there is a really good chance Sarah Pallin will be our president.  People are easily fooled but they are not stupid.  Watch the debates.  Obama is a smart cookie.  He will get McCain to make some very bad mistakes.  We just have to make sure people recognize them as mistakes.

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by: Bourne's Ghost @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:41:26 PM CDT

No one hears us (4.00 / 1)

We are screaming in a vacuum. The last eight years have been about as bad as bad can be. But because of the corporate media, and the feckless Dems in my party, the average person makes no connection between their troubles and the conservative movement.

We will continue to lose until Dems get backbone and force the return of the airwaves to the American people. We're a tiny voice drowned out by the networks every day.

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by: Semblance @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:47:12 PM CDT

No, they do (0.00 / 0)

the problem isn't that, all other Republican candidates got slaughtered in polls against us.

The problem is the Republicans nominated the guy who has the best chance of removing himself from his own party's failures and the media has been trumping that lie.

McCain looks like the recovery of the Republican Party and that's all the country needs to elect another Republican.  

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by: nrafter53084 @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 01:35:16 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good post, please cross-post this to dkos. n/t (0.00 / 0)

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by: Mike in Denmark @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 21:48:07 PM CDT

I agree (0.00 / 0)

DKos has become the worst head in the sand site since the beginning. I have heard too many underestimating of McCain there. If we lose this election, DKos should be shut down.  

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by: nrafter53084 @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 01:33:04 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Cut off our head! (0.00 / 0)

I've been reading your concern trolling with increasing irritation but this has got to be the most ridiculous line yet...

If we lose this election, DKos should be shut down.  

LOL!

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by: Curt Matlock @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 10:48:52 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

No sorry it should (0.00 / 0)

they're still in "la la la, I can't hear you" mode and every time my brother talks to a Clinton holdout, many times they point to the "jerks at DailyKos" as a reason for them holding out. I guarantee many of them don't know what DailyKos is, but they're developed a reputation that is hurting our candidate.

I remember being over a DKos and getting flamed for suggesting the Clinton may win the South Dakota primary. A CONCERN TROLL I was called.

When she did, the same people commented "What happened?"

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by: nrafter53084 @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 12:45:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'd bet (0.00 / 0)

I'd bet that had Obama known McCain was gonna pick Palin that he would have picked Hillary...The erosion of Obama's support, while probably temporary, is mostly due to women switching to McCain.  

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by: boomersun @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:27:08 PM CDT

I dont' think this is actually true (4.00 / 1)

all of the polls I'v eheard anyone cite, along with all of the anecdotal evidence I have from personal contacts, indicates that women aren't all that enchanted by Palin

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by: Valatan @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 22:42:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yea, but . . . (0.00 / 0)

 . . . had Obama picked Hillary, McCain would not have picked Palin.

Visit DebateScoop for political candidate debate news and analysis.

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by: demondeac @ Sun Sep 07, 2008 at 23:35:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Women aren't switching to McCain (4.00 / 1)

Independent men are. Hillary is no help there.  

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by: nrafter53084 @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 01:33:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Republican uncle who refuses to vote for McCain now because of her... (4.00 / 3)

Chris, you hit the nail on the head with another post of yours... The argument about her needs to be about how McCain made a terrible, uneducated pick.

My uncle and one of my parents friends, lifelong Republicans (fiscal conservatives and not social conservatives), now refuse to vote for McCain because he picked her.  They honestly think that he's crazy or senile or something now because of the pick, and this should be the messaging that's going out there.

Now, full disclosure... These people are from IL and are somewhat sympathetic to Obama, but they weren't sold on him yet.  Palin has made McCain unacceptable to them... He needs to be made unacceptable to the rest of the country for the same reasons.  I honestly think this is out there... ready to happen, but is being covered by the glow of the RNC right now.  Once that glow fades, I think (and hope) people see what's going on with McCain (and Palin) and start to turn against them again.

We will know more in a few weeks.

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by: leshrac55 @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 01:10:50 AM CDT

This is what I think, too. (4.00 / 1)

My Republican friends (except for the hardcore nuts, and I only know a handful of those) are actually pretty glum these days.

These are "regular" people, they don't want culture war they want dignity. And McCain's choice of Palin takes that out of the picture. They don't want to be freaks, or associated with freaks, but it has become impossible to deny that that is what the GOP has become -- the Freak Party. McCain's choice is the final nail in that coffin.

Don't get me wrong, I don't expect them to vote Democrat, but I wouldn't be surprised if they sat this one out.


Montani semper liberi

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by: Sadie Baker @ Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 09:21:18 AM CDT

[ Parent ]