So the Obama campaign set a record in August. They don't have to report the numbers for another ten days so we can only guess at the amount. Let's say, for arguments sake, it's about $60 million or an average of roughly $2 million a day. Let's assume, coming out of the Democratic convention, that the average for the first few days of September was a little better, say $2.5 million a day: Sept. 1: $2.5 million Sept. 2: $2.5 million Sept. 3: $2.5 million Then on the night of September 3rd Sarah Palin gives her powerful and snarky speech at the Republican National Convention. The Obama campaign reportedly raised about $10 million in the next 24 hours.We'll record that money on the 4th: Sept. 4: $10 million John McCain gives his speech the night of the 4th and you can bet, between Democrats still angry about Palin's speech and with McCain's speech (and all the "zero, zero, zero" chanting) that the money continued to roll in at well above average. Let's taper it down like this: Sept. 5: $8 million Sept. 6: $6 million Sept. 7: $4 million At this point we're in the period where the polls are looking bad for Obama which is when, during the primaries anyway, people tended to give more. So I'm going to guess we get a few more days at this level: Sept. 8: $4 million Sept. 9: $4 million Sept. 10: $3.5 million So that's $47 million right there in the first 10 days of this month. To hit $100 million the Obama campaign would need to average about $2.65 million a day over the last 20 days of September, up from our August estimate of $2 million a day. I think, with the polls close, and with the first Presidential debate on Sept. 26 that it could well happen. If so, and if they can do anything similar in October, the Obama campaign should still be able to outspend the McCain campaign, just as they projected when they decided to opt out of public financing. What's your take? |
