Vital Statistics On The "Bush Dogs"

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Aug 16, 2007 at 15:18

The two biggest defeats for House Democrats so far in 2007 have been the capitulation vote on Iraq, and the vote to allow Alberto Gonzales warrant-less wiretapping powers. Here are some vital statistics on the 38 Democrats, the “Bush Dogs,” who voted in favor of both bills, and thus are the most likely to capitulate on important fights in the future:

Vital Stats on “Bush Dogs”
Member District PVI Term # 2006 win % New Dem Blue Dog
Altimire PA-04 R +2.6 1st 52% Yes No
Barrow GA-12 R +2 2nd 50% Yes Yes
Bean IL-18 R +5.2 2nd 51% Yes Yes
Boren OK-02 R +4.9 2nd 73% No Yes
Boswell IA-03 D +1.4 6th 52% No Yes
Boyd FL-02 R +2.2 6th 100% No Yes
Carney** PA-10 R +8.0 1st 53% Yes Yes
Chandler** KY-06 R +6.6 3rd 85% Yes Yes
Cooper TN-05 D +6.2 3rd / 9th* 69% No Yes
Costa CA-20 D +4.6 2nd 100% No Yes
Cramer AL-05 R +6.4 9th 100% No Yes
Cuellar TX-28 R +1 2nd 68% Yes No
Davis, L TN-04 R +3.2 3rd 66% No Yes
Donnelly IN-02 R +4.3 1st 54% No Yes
Edwards TX-17 R +17.7 9th 58% No No
Ellsworth IN-08 R +8.5 1st 61% No Yes
Ethridge NC-02 R +2.7 6th 66% Yes No
Gordon TN-06 R +3.8 12th 69% No Yes
Herseth** SD-AL R +10.0 3rd 69% Yes Yes
Hill IN-09 R +7.1 1st / 4th* 50% Yes Yes
Lampson TX-22 R +14.5 1st / 5th* 52% Yes Yes
Lipinski IL-03 D +10.3 2nd 77% No No
Marshall GA-08 R +8 3rd 51% No Yes
Matheson UT-02 R +16.9 4th 59% No Yes
McIntyre NC-07 R +2.8 6th 73% Yes Yes
Melancon LA-03 R +4.8 2nd 55% Yes Yes
Peterson MN-07 R +5.6 9th 70% No Yes
Pomeroy ND-AL R +13.1 8th 66% No Yes
Rodriguez** TX-23 R +4 1st / 5th* 54% No No
Ross AR-04 D +0.5 4th 75% No Yes
Salazar CO-03 R +5.6 2nd 61% No Yes
Shuler NC-11 R +7.1 1st 54% No Yes
Snyder AR-02 R +0.1 6th 61% Yes No
Space OH-18 R +6.1 1st 62% No Yes
Tanner TN-08 D +0.1 10th 73% No Yes
Taylor MS-04 R +16.3 10th 80% No Yes
Walz** MN-01 R +0.9 1st 53% No No
Wilson OH-06 D +0.4 1st 62% No Yes
Medians / Totals -- R +4 3rd 62% 13 30

PVI = Partisan Voting Index, produced by Cook Political Report
* = Non-consecutive terms in Congress
** = Received significant national blogosphere support
Also, Tim Walz did vote in favor of the McGovern amendment. All others voted nay on that amendment, and are clearly ideologically opposed to progressives in this area.

Who is out of step with their districts here? Well, basically everyone, considering only a dozen congressional districts have either majorities or pluralities opposed to withdrawal. The most egregious offenders are Lipinski, Cooper and Costa, who come from solidly Democratic districts. Boswell, Ross, Tanner and Wilson come from districts that, as of 2004, leaned slightly Democratic, and probably lean even more so now. Altmire, Barrow, Boyd, Cuellar, Lincoln Davis, Etheridge, McIntyre, Synder and Walz all come from districts with partisan voting indexes that lean Republican, but which do so by a smaller amount than Democrats won the national House vote in 2006 (in other words, districts that a probably slightly lean blue these days). Those are the 16 districts where it strikes me that the most pressure, including both potential and real primary challenges, can be successfully applied.

I'll stop the analysis there, for now. The purpose of this post was to identify the core list of Bush Dogs, as well as provide information on their districts, their relationship to centrist (New Dem) and conservative (Blue Dog) House caucuses, whether or not they are freshman, and whether or not they received national blogosphere support when they first won their seats in Congress. Hopefully, this can serve as a reference point for the upcoming fights we face on Iraq and FISA. For now, I will leave the rest of the analysis to you.
Chris Bowers :: Vital Statistics On The "Bush Dogs"

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Great analysis. (0.00 / 0)
This is just the kind of analysis we need to do a well targeted campaign, thanks Chris.
One note: Boswell's district is more solidly Dem than the Kerry campaign (which was very weak in IA) numbers would indicate. While not as solid Dem as the Lipinski, Cooper, or Costa districts, it's still pretty good. And with all those Prez candidates hanging around IA, targeting it will get noticed in multiple ways.

Boswell,Tanner, Lipinski and Costa (0.00 / 0)
Thanks Mike. You are are that Boswell would get noticed because it is in Iowa. I also think the other three would be great places to start, with Lipinksi and Costa being obvious targets due to the region of the country in which they reside (Illinois and California). to add a fourth, I think Tanner would be really interesting, because he founded the Blue Dogs, despite currently residing in a very slightly lean Dem district.

The key, of course, is connecting to locals in each of this districts, and finding activists--and potentially candidates--who can elad the charge, ala Connecticut in 2006.

[ Parent ]
more stats (0.00 / 0)
I'd also add what term they are in as a better indicator than being frosh or not... I wouldn't think Salazar is very powerful or entrenched as this would indiciate because it's only his 2nd term.

Perhaps committee chairmanships/leadership positions would also be useful.

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I wsa going to do that (0.00 / 0)
But I thought it would take  a long time to find the stats. Will update later.

[ Parent ]
Costa has always been bad news (0.00 / 0)
California progressives were just as glad when he moved out of the state legislature into Congress -- he'd done quite enough damage already. In Sacramento, he fronted for real estate interests on a legal framework that gutted efforts by cities to create and preserve meaningful rent control, contributing to the pricing out of many from core urban areas. Instead we get suburban sprawl and gas consumption.

That is, he's a mercenary, business Democrat.

He has been awfully entrenched in his district, but he certainly needs a serious challenge.

Can it happen here?

Just for Comparison (4.00 / 1)
It is interesting to note that Nancy Boyda, a frosh from Kansas, is not on this list.  Blaming it on the voters does not fly.  Even in red Kansas, voters want leaders to lead us out of Iraq.

In fact (0.00 / 0)
Only two women are on this list at all. That strikingly low percentage is quite telling, I think.

[ Parent ]
Opening for women candidates? (0.00 / 0)
Stephanie Herseth is in a R +10 district.  She has rationalized some of her votes (such as vote for the marriage amendment) as needed to balance the fact that she is pro-choice.  Melissa Bean has no excuse.

Maybe this argues for backing more women candidates in marginal districts.

John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

[ Parent ]
Yeah but (0.00 / 0)
Hardly any were elected last year either...

John McCain opposes the GI Bill.

[ Parent ]
Walz and Rodriguez (0.00 / 0)
What the hell is up with these guys?  Why did we support them again?


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