Palin Down the Toilet

by: tremayne

Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 14:07

Just this morning Marc Ambinder wrote:

America's gut reaction to Sarah Palin has been positive, and so her stumbles during the Charlie Gibson interview might not really settle in.

Based on the data we have, this is false. Palin is in a favorability free fall. In just 4 days, since her interview with Gibson in fact, the gap between those who view her favorably and those who hold unfavorable views has almost disappeared. According to Research 2000 polling, more than half the country held a favorable opinion of Palin during the 3 days prior to Sept. 11 (52%) while 35% held unfavorable attitudes. That was the day the Gibson interview aired. The 17-point net positive has fallen, as of today, to just 4 points:

Sept. 11: +17 net positive

Sept. 12: +14

Sept. 13: +9

Sept. 14: +5

Sept. 15 (today): +4

Palin is by far the least popular of the 4 candidates for Pres./VP and I don't think her slide is over yet. Because she is McCain's creation, she is taking him down as well. He had a +13 net positive just three days ago, then +12, then +9 and today just +6. By comparison both Barack Obama and Joe Biden are holding steady at +16 net positives.

As I argued yesterday, Palin can help drag down McCain. Certainly, in the end, it's about McCain. He decided she was the best prepared after all. Her inadequacy tells voters so much about McCain that bad news about her will continue to hurt him as well.

tremayne :: Palin Down the Toilet

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I agree entirely (0.00 / 0)
I have argued from the beginning that we should be hitting Palin strongly, rather than focusing solely on McCain.

We got it right the first time -- she is an awful choice for VP. Because there was a time-delayed aspect to her awfulness there was a danger that people would panic and abandon bashing Palin too early.

She's nothing but red moose meat.

Data? Who needs data... (0.00 / 0)
...when we can omnisciently understand "America's gut reaction"?

Actually, Ambinder does point out the obvious: Palin's interview with Gibson was terrible, and the Republicans all know it.  But Ambinder is too much of a political reporter to avoid tempering that with soothing bromides about the entire country's "gut reaction."  

I thought McCain dropped out of the race. (4.00 / 2)
I'm confused, McCain is running?

Michael Bloomberg, prince of corporate welfare

Palin is McCain's strength (0.00 / 0)
She is the only reason evangelicals are fired up, and she is the only reason he is leading in many polls.

If we destroy Palin, we destroy McCain. I don't think he will remove her from the ticket, that would be a disaster, but she will continue to be a source of bad news as the bloom comes off.  Troopergate, rapekit-gate, book banning-gate, and her total lack of knowledge are only starting to permeate through the post-convention glow.

I just refuse to believe that someone can pick such an unqualified, corrupt hack as their VP and benefit from it. I don't. Palin will either be a nonfactor or a negative by election day, and that is bad news for McCain.

I am not surprised (0.00 / 0)
When a candidate that no one knows is foisted on people with little or no vetting, then of course all the bad news is going to come out later.  People will give the person the benefit of the doubt until they hear otherwise.  Unfortunately (or fortunately) all the odd things about Palin have been coming out in dribs and drabs, plus the embarrassing interview, so people are starting to get a better picture of her.  It was inevitable that her favorability numbers would come down.  

Time to Expose Her As a Phoney (4.00 / 1)
The time is fast approaching to unmask Mrs. Palin for what she is: a complete forgery. The Republicans tried to pick this fight on cultural grounds, and on cultural grounds Democrats now have a very clear opening to destroy her.

She's already been exposed as the "Fake it 'til you make it" candidate on the issues, on which it's clear she has no clue what she's talking about. That's the foot in the door. Now you knock the door down by going after the central premise of the way the GOP marketed her: that she's a regular, small town, working class mom.

She ain't. Not by a long shot. Small town, working class moms don't have three houses. They don't have their own sea plane (suitable for shooting wolves from 1000 feet). They don't install tanning beds in the governor's mansion. They don't give their kids pretentious names. They don't look like they came out of Hollywood central casting. They don't spew venom at everyone they disagree with. They have values that tell them not to abuse their power to go after a former in-law and then fight the subpoenas and the investigation when they get caught.

If the roles were reversed and you gave this set of facts to a GOP campaign, they'd have their boots on the Democratic candidate's throat in a heartbeat. What the GOP is doing with Palin is daring the Democrats to sack up and do the same. They're saying, "We already sold America a fake cowboy the past two elections, you can't stop us this time either." Well, that's a challenge we need to take up this time around.

The economy will win this election for Obama. Exposing Palin as a fraud to rural and small town America is what can blow this open into a very comfortable victory, because small town America is going to be pissed once they find out the GOP has been selling them a bad bill of goods.

She's the fake it 'til you make it candidate, and, even more, she's not the heroine of America's small communities. She's the candidate of America's gated communities.

You can put lipstick on an albatross (4.00 / 1)
but its still an albatross.

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

Quirks With Swingy Appeal (4.00 / 1)
Back when I worked in an office, I always had a box of toys in my room or cube, and several toys would be out on my desk.  I'd have tops, puzzles, Nerf guns, that sort thing.

(Stay with me, this is actually relevant.)

Most people I worked with had a high opinion of me and it seemed the toys added to that.  It was a personality quirk that made me look smarter, self assured and a bit eccentric.

But occasionally someone didn't have a great opinion of me.  Those people tended to sneer at that toys.  I'm fairly certain that to those people the toys made me look worse: careless, non-serious, a goof-off.

(Now I get to the point.)

I think most of Palin's appeal comes from quirks in the same category as my toy box.  Palin has a  ton of quirks like being a beauty queen, giving her kids strange names, the big guns, the pregnant daughter and just Alaska itself.  She's a character in every sense of the word.

If you like her, those quirks get you to like her more.  But if you don't like her, they make her worse.  They amplify your opinion more than do anything to directly change it.

So I think Palin is in for a big, huge fall.  As others come around to knowing what we know and see Palin for what she really is, all those quirks will switch from positives to negatives, driving her numbers even lower than they would go otherwise.

Of course, the True Believers will stay with her; that matters when it comes to energizing the base.  But that doesn't get McCain to 50%+1.

Keep pounding on the lies (0.00 / 0)
We need to make McCain/Paliban synonymous with "Lies."

I really HATE to keep saying this (0.00 / 0)
but I still think most people on the left are misunderstanding what is going on. McCain now has a permanent hold on the GOP bases. Combine his patriotic appeal with his marrying into money and his choice of White Trash Barbie as running mate, the old school GOP that has run the country since Reagan is now 100% behind him. Nothing that has come out about Palin except the seccessionist thing has even got the potential to derail this coalition. Obama should be running ads every 15 minutes pointing to Palin's support of the Alaskan Independence Party, because that is the one issue that bottom feeder voters will hold against her. They're not sold on McCain, it's Palin who they adore. I've even seen it reported that there are supremacist websites calling for a quick end to Johnny Boy so Barbie can come into their inheritance and bring on the end times that much quicker.

The only real question right now is whether enough people have moved past the GOP base to dethrone these bloodsucking vultures. Does Rove get another term, or have the swing voters learned enough about what these people are capable of to turn against them? And, of course, like it or not, the swing vote is small, as the past couple of elections show. Just 1% will decide this one. Obama is still making the mistake of thinking that he can win by registering enough new voters. I can't see that happening, especially with the manipulation of votes and voter rolls we've all seen since 2000.

Obama should be reminding anyone who will listen that 1) despite Barbie and the Gibson interview, all the evidence is that Iraq had nothing to do with 9-11, 2) she wanted to make Alaska it's own country, 3) supermom ain't much of a mother (see reports of her son trashing a bus in a drunken rage after a hockey game and being farmed out to auntie 2000 miles away, and of one of her little darling's farming out to another auntie when she came down with mono), etc. This woman is vulnerable, but it just isn't smart to wait for her to self destruct. Hillary SHOULD be out pounding at her every day! The constitution won't stand a McCain Supreme Court. Even the "ladies" on The View know that.


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