Additionally, McCain has never even sniffed the lead in Iowa, a state that Bush won in 2004 (but Gore won in 2000). Even after the Republican convention, Obama held a twelve-point lead in the state according to the latest Des Moines Register poll. If McCain is that far behind in Iowa even when he is at his peak nationally, then there is simply no chance that McCain will win Iowa. So, toss another seven electoral votes into Obama's column, putting him at 259 and only 11 away from victory.
Where do the next eleven electoral votes come from? Indiana's eleven electoral votes are tempting, given that a new poll in the state shows Obama up by 3%. However, I think it is more likely that another "Gore then Bush" state, New Mexico, seems poised to deliver its five electoral votes. A Survey USA poll came out earlier today showing Obama up by eight in the land of enchantment. Even before that poll, Pollster.com pegged Obama's chances in the state at greater than 68%. Obama is a pretty strong favorite here.
So, now we only need six more electoral votes to win, and five to tie. While it was pretty easy getting to 264, this is, unfortunately, where it becomes more difficult. The three best options are Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. Pollster.com confirms all three of these states as toss-ups, and Obama has led in at least one post-convention poll in all three states. As of this writing, no other red states meet both of these criteria (although Indiana might when Pollster.com updates). So, the path to victory is the 264 electoral votes described in the first three paragraphs, plus one of Colorado, Ohio and Virginia.
Of those three options, the best one is clearly Colorado. Unlike Ohio and Virginia, McCain has never hit 50% in Colorado state post-Jeremiah Wright. Further, apart from an outlying partisan Republican poll taken in late March, the largest lead McCain has ever enjoyed in the state, even during post-convention polling, is 3%. Colorado also probably enjoys the most advanced progressive political infrastructure of any state, making it an obvious target. This infrastructure is a major reason for huge Democratic gains in the state over the last four years. Since 2004, Democrats have picked up both branches of the state legislature, the Governor, two House seats, and a Senate seat. This year, they looked poised to add another House and another Senate seat. I'm not sure if I have ever seen a more remarkable turnaround in a state in such a short period of time. This is the kind of state where we want the campaign to be decided.
So, that's it. The path to victory goes through Colorado. I have a hard time seeing any realistic scenario where the candidate who loses Colorado wins the election (I know it is possible--I just think it is highly unlikely). I mean, given all of the advantages we have in that state, how can we expect Obama to win Ohio or Virginia if he doesn't win Colorado? As such, Colorado is the 2008 equivalent of Ohio 2004 and Florida 2000. It is the tipping point. If you have resources, throw them at Colorado. I'll be moving my personal paid media campaign there tomorrow, and leaving it in the state indefinitely. It's all about Colorado this year. |
