Tracking Poll Average: Entirely Post-McBounce Edition

by: tremayne

Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 13:33

Another very strong day for Barack Obama. His support rose 1-point in each of the four tracking polls and John McCain's support declined in two of the four. The result is an additional 1.5-point margin for Obama. He now leads the average with Obama at 47.75 and McCain at 44.25.

This may be the end of his recent surge. The reason is that today's numbers come from the 3-day rolling averages that start with Monday, September 15. Any polling prior to that is still within the McCain-Palin bounce window. Now, if the market meltdown or anti-McCain advertising or anti-Palin sentiment are responsible above and beyond the end of the convention bump as Chris surmises, the trend could continue.

Most of the new state polls, including the recently released polls for National Journal, and some of the new national polls include pre-Sept. 15 field work which means they are likely better for McCain than he can really expect. Take that into account as you read the polls. Full numbers inside.

Tracking Poll Average

Sept. 18: Obama 47.75, McCain 44.25

Sept. 17: Obama 46.75, McCain 44.75

Sept. 16: Obama 46.75, McCain 45.25

Sept. 15: Obama 46.0, McCain 46.0

Sept. 14: Obama 46.0, McCain 46.25

Sept. 13: Obama 45.5, McCain 47.0

Sept. 12: Obama 45.75, McCain 46.75

Sept. 11: Obama 45.75, McCain 46.75

Sept. 10: Obama 45.3, McCain 46.7

Sept. 9:  Obama 45.3, McCain 47.3

Sept. 8:  Obama 45.0, McCain 47.0

Sept. 7: Obama 45.9, McCain 46.2

Sept. 6: Obama 47.1, McCain 44.1

Sept. 5: Obama 47.3, McCain 43.3