(Dark Blue (188): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (58): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (98): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (47): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (146): McCain +7.6% or more)
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%. If a state isn't listed, it isn't that close right now.)
Due to the high number of polls this year, I have tightened the range of dates for the polls that are included in the averages. This change has resulted in the old "firewall" of Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico all turning dark blue. Colorado might be a fluke, but recent polling makes it clear that Iowa and New Mexico will be blue states this year.
With the firewall in place, in order to win the election all Obama would have to do is hold the Kerry states. In most cases this isn't really an issue, but there are two exceptions: New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. McCain has long been successful in New Hampshire, although his current lead could simply be that ARG had a bad poll in the state (wouldn't be the first time). Obama's lead in Pennsylvania is surprisingly weak. McCain is spending 20% of his paid media here, nearly doubling up Obama in the state. Also, friends of mine indicate that while the campaign is putting up record numbers of field contacts through voter registration and door knocking, they still aren't hitting their target numbers. The field offices in Philadelphia are also located in more well to do areas, because they were located where local funders wanted them.
Could Pennsylvania and New Hampshire be problem areas? If not, then everything looks fine right now. If so, then we have left the backdoor open. State by state details in the extended entry.
* Maine's four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology The forecast is updated whenever there are enough new polls to warrant an update. The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls conducted where the majority of interviews were condcuted within the last 7 days are included in the averages. There are two exceptions to this rule.
The first exception are states where the majority of interviews for no polls were conducted in the last 7 days. Every state has at least one poll.
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than one poll in a state over the last 7 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
During the final two weeks of the election, only polls taken entirely within the past seven days will be included in the averages (with the same exceptions listed above, of course).
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