A Sinking Economic Tide Lifts Democratic Boats

by: Matt Stoller

Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 18:26


Atrios links to this polling showing Americans are mad at Republicans for this mess.  I'm told that Democratic pollsters have shown lifts for Congressional Democrats across the board by about two points a week for the last two weeks, and the economy is the reason.  Obama is also seeing the same lift.  A Survey USA poll and an ABC Poll are both confirming that Obama has cracked 50 in Virginia, and he's also cracking 50 nationwide.  If he can hold his Deep Blue firewall, he's got this.

New Mexico progressive Tom Udall is going to be a progressive Senator, up 20 points over his opponent, Al Franken is tied, and Jeff Merkley is running even to an exceptionally dirty Gordon Smith.  This is a very bad sign for Smith, since his advantage in the race is that he's really well-liked, and that is no longer the case.  Even Kay Hagan is ahead in North Carolina, though weakling Tom Allen is getting blown out by Susan Collins.  Dissing your allies isn't a good strategy, Tom.  
Matt Stoller :: A Sinking Economic Tide Lifts Democratic Boats

The DCCC isn't letting Alice Kryzan in NY-26 go unaided, they have put advertising up to help her take the open seat.  Still, with the environment as it is, this is an unreasonably tight election; Democrats and Republicans in Congress have equally loathsome ratings, about 25-75 approval/disapproval.

I'm not a forecaster, I'm more interested in seeing how elections and policy interplay, which means that I'm constantly having to correct for my own bias to think that Democrats are going to do well in elections.  Still, on a Congressional level, things have lifted quite a bit.

And if the polling is correct, and the public is mad at Republicans, Democrats should stop talking about fucking bipartisanship.  Additionally, this is huge leverage for Democrats in the negotiations over the bailout.  At least at the polls, Republicans are going to suffer for this if it goes badly, not Democrats.  So it's worth it for Democrats to fight the organized crime that is the Bush administration and Republican Party.

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A Sinking Economic Tide Lifts Democratic Boats | 5 comments
i don't think (0.00 / 0)
the dems should agree to a bailout, let the free market run its course, the elites in ws should have to pay for their greed, along with the deregulators like mccain and the rest of the unethical gop mob.  
Franken (0.00 / 0)
I have loved watching the Franken turn-around. Hagan, too, seems to be pulling off the same tightening. Maybe this is the normal course of these types of races, but just looking at the polls a few months ago made me wonder why people thought they were likely pickups. Now they seem to be more likely everyday.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" -Jello Biafra
A Bipartisan War On Crime (4.00 / 1)
Genrally I despise all this bipartisan BS.

But at this point, where it's so transparently clear that the GOP has turned itself into an organized crime outfit, I wouldn't begrudge a Democrat in a close race reaching out to disaffected Republicans and saying, "Join me in a bipartisan effort to kick the criminals out of government, and get rid of the criminals who have taken over your own party."

That's the sort of bipartisan rhetoric I could buy.  One time only, perhaps.  But I'd buy it just this once.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

Be careful with the bailout politics (0.00 / 0)

 The Republicans are aggressively voicing their objections to the bailout, in an effort to make any giveaway to Wall Street look like the Democrats' fault.

 Let's hope Pelosi and Reid understand the game they're playing, and act accordingly. That means no rushes to rubber-stamp anything.

 The Republicans need to own this debacle. Do the Democrats get that?  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

and a rising gasoline tide sinks McCain's boat (0.00 / 0)
the strong match between gas prices and Bush's popularity is in Professor Pollkatz's graph

http://pollkatz.homestead.com/...

This $700 billion bailout scheme was the last straw for international investors, a signal the U.S. dollar is heading into junk territory. Price of oil shoots up, price of gas follows, this is gonna be bad for McCain.

More of the same and he voted with Bush 90% of the time is a potent campaign theme for Obama so far. How many times do you hear McCain say "Bush"?

A Sinking Economic Tide Lifts Democratic Boats | 5 comments
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