Once again, just like Iowa and New Hampshire, not much movement at the top, except for Richardson moving up. Oddly enough, even though he is still ahead of Richardson in Nevada, Edwards is cutting back on staff in the state, while Richardson is expanding. This shows that no matter what the national numbers say, he really is a tier above the rest of the field. In the first three states, the campaign is clearly a four-way race between Clinton, Edwards, Obama and Richardson. Also, Romney leads on the Republican side, but to my knowledge they have yet to move up the Nevada caucus to early state status.
Progressive Dem Reverses Retirement Plans
Turns out IL-04 won't be an open seat after all, as Luis Gutierrez has reversed his retirement announcement. My bet, an this is purely conjecture, is that this reversal is some combination of really liking being in the majority, not being too thrilled with his potential replacements, and not finding his retirement possibilities very exciting. No matter the cause, it is fun to see Republican retirements starting to flow-Pryce in OH-15, Hastert in IL-14, and Pickering MS-03 this week alone-while Democrats are moving in the opposite direction. Guitierrez is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
A History Lesson on Drafts
I have to agree with Jonathan Singer when it comes to the perplexing Politico article this morning on Fred Thompson supposedly being "the closest thing to a successful draft of a presidential candidate in more than a half-century." Huh? I was not part of the Draft Clark movement, but I saw it in full-force online back in 2003. Matt, and at least a dozen other people I know, worked on that movement. Further, when Clark dropped out of the race the day after the February 10th primaries, I watched an interview with him the next morning where he specifically stated that he was "obligated" to run because of the draft movement behind him. I'm going out on a limb here and stating that is a little closer to an actual draft movement than Fred Thompson's "campaign."
Giuliani Spent 3% of Average Worker Time At Ground Zero
It turns out Rudy Giuliani only spent 29 hours at ground zero, compared to a median of 962 hours for rescue, recovery and debris removal workers. But hey, whose counting? 29 is about the same as 962, right? I think his campaign might start to need some sort of justification besides 9/11.
National, California Connection In Clinton Polls?
Here is another possible, simpler explanation for Clinton's improvement in national polls: she is opening up a huge lead in California. Recent Survey USA and Field Poll surveys confirm this, showing Clinton hovering around 50% in the Golden State, although a recent ARG poll shows no significant increase. With something crazy like one in every eight national Democrats in California, half of Clinton's 4% national increase could have come entirely from California. I don't know what she is doing out there, but it seems to be working.
Primary Calendar Super Brat Strikes Again
New Hampshire Secretary of State, and primary season super-brat, Bill Gardner is now threatening to screw Iowa too, and hold the New Hampshire caucus on January 8th. This would force Iowa to either hold their cause within just a couple days of New Hampshire, hold it after New Hampshire, or hold it in December. I'm starting to think that every single problem with the calendar rests with Gardner. It would be really funny if Iowa and New Hampshire end up at each others throats. If their alliance breaks down, and Gardner puts New Hampshire on the 8th, then I bet Michigan goes on the 12th, and all hell breaks loose. Two privileged brats who can't figure out how to divide up the spoils because one of them, New Hampshire, is brattier than the other. Hysterical.
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