| And so, all hell breaks loose:
According to sources inside both parties, the two state parties in Michigan have agreed to move the state's primary -- legislatively -- to Jan. 15. This is a compromise date out of respect for Democratic Sen. Carl Levin, who really wanted to move the primary to Jan. 8. Others wanted the primary on Jan. 22 as a way to, essentially, play ball with the other early states. There was a nice window being created for a Jan. 22, 2008 event. But by moving to Jan. 15, this will put pressure on the other early states to either entertain a December event or lobby the two national parties to not sanction Michigan at all.
As I had repeatedly reported from an inside source, the Michigan Democratic Party had been looking at four early dates: January 12th, January 5th, December 8th and December 1st (all Saturdays) to hold a party-run caucus. However, that development is now moot, as statewide legislation will officially move both the date for both parties up to January 15th. This is means that New Hampshire on January 8th is a foregone conclusion:
When will the New Hampshire primary be held? Despite long-distance lobbying from Iowa leaders who do not want their first-in-the-nation caucus shoved into December 2007, Secretary of State Bill Gardner has not budged on his intent to hold the New Hampshire primary on the traditional Tuesday.
He made it clear last week that it would take an "extraordinary circumstance" for him to schedule the primary on a day other than a Tuesday. Yesterday, he was even more resolute in that opinion.
By a gaping 56%-22% margin, New Hampshire voters actually wanted a Saturday primary, not to mention that only 22% of the country thought that New Hampshire should go first anyway. But none of that matters now, since New Hampshire will almost certainly stick with its demand to hold a primary seven days before any other state. As such, right now January 8th seems like a pretty good guess for New Hampshire.
So, now the big question: what does Iowa do? Do they move to mid-December? Do they hold their caucuses only two, three or four days before New Hampshire? Do they just stick with January 14th, and decide to forget the whole thing? Your guess is as good as mine at this point. Here is the updated primary calendar:
- Mid-December-Mid-January: Iowa caucuses
- Tuesday, January 8th: New Hampshire
- Tuesday, January 15th: Michigan
- Saturday, January 19th: Nevada Democratic caucuses, South Carolina Republican primary
- Tuesday, January 22nd: Wyoming Republican caucuses
- Tuesday, January 29th: Florida primary, South Carolina Democratic primary
- Tuesday, February 5th: Super Tuesday
Assuming that this will lessen the influence of Iowa, and increase the importance of New Hampshire, this looks to be a major blow for John Edwards, and a boost for both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Then again, there is a chance that a mid-December Iowa caucus, say on Saturday the 15th or Monday the 17th, will actually really help out John Edwards a lot, since he can ride a win there for three weeks heading into New Hampshire. No matter what happens, If Iowa isn't first, Edwards is in serious trouble.
As far as Michigan goes, an interesting poll came out today that, get this, actually showed Gore ahead:
EPIC/MRA for The Detroit News, WXYZ-TV, et al. Aug. 8-13, 2007. 400 LVs, MoE 5
Gore: 36
Clinton: 32
Obama: 16
Edwards: 8
Others: 4
Unsure: 4
Without Gore, (3/18 numbers in parenthesis)
Clinton: 45 (45)
Obama: 26 (29)
Edwards: 16 (16)
Others: 7
Unsure: 6
Ont he Republican side, Fred Thompson led this poll with 22%, but there was a tight pack with Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich and Romney all between 12-19%.. The last three polls out of Michigan, stretching over three months and all without Gore, show Clinton 38.3%, Obama 25.3%, and Edwards 15.3%. the increasing importance of Michigan would actually hurt Richardson the most, since he was clearly investing heavily in Nevada, and does not have as many resources as other campaigns to extend into a large state like Michigan. This could end up being a very interesting early primary, considering the potentially large union support from Edwards, and the potentially large African-American support from Clinton and Obama. Of course, it will be scrambled heavily by at least New Hampshire results.
Looks like the next move it up to Iowa. I wonder if anyone other states will jump into the window now. |
