(Dark Blue (194): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (75): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (85): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (27): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (158): McCain +7.6% or more)
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%. Before you ask, if a state isn't listed, it isn't that close right now. Also before you ask, yes I have included whatever new poll you can show me.)
Polling now shows that Obama has acquired a substantial lead in states with 269 votes. The Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico firewall is holding nicely, as our the Great Lakes states of Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. the problem shows up after 269, in search of the state to put Obama over the top. As the swing state chart shows, there are a wide variety of possibilities, but McCain maintains narrow leads in virtually all of them. Even in New Hampshire and Virginia, McCain leads according to the polling median, as 2 of 3 polls show him ahead in NH, and 4 of 6 polls show him ahead in VA. The two NV polls are split.
McCain has stayed competitive with Obama by concentrating all of his resources into an extremely narrow group of states. As such, it is growing difficult for me to see how McCain wins the national popular vote this year, since the DNC and the Obama campaign have sent resources to about 35 states where they will operate uncontested. It is also growing difficult for me to see where McCain punctures Obama's current 269 total. None of the "Lean Obama" states seem like realistic McCain states to me, with the possible exception of Pennsylvania. Even there, McCain hasn't led in 25 consecutive non-Zogby internet polls. So, I don't really buy it.
I'm feeling good about 269 and the popular vote, but I still don't see an obvious 270+ for Obama. Complete state by state details, plus a methodological update, can be found in the extended entry.
Update: New Colorado polls, and CNN battleground polls added. Still looks great for Obama.
Ever since I had moved to only including polls from the previous week, the instability of the forecast had been bothering me. Basically, I felt uncomfortable relying on single polls to arrive at strange results such as Louisiana being "Lean McCain" instead of "Solid McCain," or Maine being "Lean" instead of "Solid Obama." So, to improve the forecast, I have now included at least the two most recent polls from every single state, so as to avoid such outlying results in the future. The overwhelming weight of data in the forecast, especially in the swing states, still relies entirely on polls conducted within the past week. Full explanation can be found at the end of these tables.
* Maine's four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.5% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.5% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology The forecast is updated whenever there are enough new polls to warrant an update. The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls with the majority of their interviews condcuted within the last 7 days from publication of the forecast are included in the averages. There are some necessary exceptions to this rule.
Every state has at least two polls, so the first exception are states without two polls that meet the previous criteria. In the event that two polls taken within the past week are not available, the two most recent polls are used. (Note: "Most recent" is determined by the mid-point in the dates of the polls. For example, a poll taken from 9/14-9/17 has a mid-pint of 9/15.5. In the event that more than one poll shares the most recent mid-point, all polls with that mid-point are included in the average.)
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than one poll in a state over the last 7 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
During the final two weeks of the election, only polls taken entirely within the past seven days will be included in the averages (with the same exceptions listed above, of course).
