As we enter a new day here on the east coast, here is a look at the swing state chart as it stands before tomorrow's polls are released:
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%. Before you ask, if a state isn't listed, it isn't that close right now.)
Obama is comfortably to 268 (what's up with Maine?), and then only has to pick off one more state in order to win. Currently, he leads narrowly in three possible clincher states, and trails narrowly in a few more. In other words, there is no real chance Obama would lose if the election were held tomorrow.
This, of course, explains McCain's latest psychotic break. As we consider the impact of McCain's move, let's have a quick rundown of what matters, and what doesn't as far as the move goes:
If McCain actually does pull his ads, it matters quite a lot. MSNBC reports that McCain's media buyer sent out the order to shut down the ads at 5 p.m., but that most will continue running tonight and some will still be in rotation tomorrow. If it actually happens, it will leave Obama uncontested on the air for several days, because it takes a while to start the ads flowing again. So, in every swing state, on news channels covering the financial meltdown, the debate, and McCain's move, there will only be paid Obama media. That will give Obama several million uncontested voter contacts, making this a very, very big positive for Obama. But, we need to see if this actually happens.
McCain's move won't score him any points. It is the same as hoping to score points on Obama opting out of public financing, or on shutting down the first day of the Republican convention. Trying to look like the principled, high-minded goo-goo never helps you in these campaigns, because people either aren't paying attention that closely, or can easily see through the bullshit when they do. Instead of scoring points, you throw away huge amounts of free media (the first night of the convention, which was the worst night of polling for McCain all year), or huge amounts of money. The media and the money helps you a lot more than any hope voters are complete suckers for empty gestures. People aren't stupid. In the same vein, pointing out that McCain has talking points on suspending his campaign won't help, either. Everyone knows this is a political move. The Survey USA poll earlier today confirms this.
Whether or not McCain votes for the package matters a lot. If Obama and McCain vote differently on the bailout, it will become a huge point of contrast during the campaign. Whoever votes no will, I believe, have the upper hand. While the public views the bill as needed, they also don't like it. If a candidate stands up and tells them it is OK to hate the bill and oppose it, they just might. Additionally, it matters a great deal for a majority of Republicans to support the bill, too. If this bill passes without Republican support--and I doubt congressional Dems will allow it to do so--then we could be in some trouble.
It matters if only Obama shows up at the debate. If the commission goes forward with the debate, as they promise, and if Obama shows up at the debate, as he promises, and if McCain doesn't show up at the debate, as he as promised, then I don't know what happens, but it seems huge. McCain just not showing up to a debate would strike me as a huge blunder, especially if Obama is there, the audience is there, and the moderator goes ahead and asks Obama the questions. The McCain just looks like a flaky, chicken, hot headed, idiotic brat. It might not go down exactly like that, but it will still be an all-timer if the debate is held but McCain doesn't show up.
In short, the abstract process positioning doesn't matter, but paid media (if McCain pulls his ads), free media (depending on what happens to / at the debate), and final decisions on the bailout do matter. At least let it never be said that this is a boring campaign. These are truly captivating times.
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