Post-Debate Reaction: Good For Obama

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 22:40


The debate had a full head of steam going through the first hour, with strong, substantive disagreements coming in from the candidates. It was also heated-I have never seen two candidates talk over each other this much. Overall, it was spirited, and a very good debate.

Less positively, the debate got sort of boring, then really boring, during the final thirty minutes. And, as I said, when it goes into the wonky weeds like the last thirty minutes, it benefits the candidate, in this case Obama, who before the debate is viewed as having less of a handle on foreign policy. McCain even closed by saying that Obama doesn't have the knowledge, but I doubt anyone will think that after watching this debate. They might disagree with Obama on a couple of issues, but he clearly has the knowledge. That is a big score for Obama.

Obama dominated McCain during the economic section (the first forty minutes), and kept delivering great lines the entire night: you voted for bush's budgets, you sing songs about bombing Iran, you didn't know Span was an ally, you think the war started in 2007, McCain says the fundamentals of the economy are strong, etc.  He rarely ventured into defensive territory, as he is known to do at some times,

McCain got stronger as the night went on, but really only had two good soundbites: "Obama doesn't understand tactics vs. strategy" and a short skit about talking with Iran. He was a bit more fluid than Obama during the second forty minutes, but it is hard for me to believe that talking about cutting wasteful spending will reassure people during the economic crisis. He made numerous mis-statements of facts--for example, he made 50 votes against clean energy while claiming he had none--but still came off reasonably well. I don't think he hurt himself.

Polls don't move much because of debates--the record is 3%. My guess is that Obama gains 1%, but it will be difficult to separate from the bounce he is receiving on the economy.

And now, over to Matt for the media blogging. What did you think of the debate?

Update: The PBS commentators, even the Republicans, all seem to agree with me: the foreign policy sections were about even, but that makes them a win for Obama because it wasn't supposed to be his strong suit. Crap--I feel uncomfortable with TV pundits agreeing with me. I've become everything I've ever hated!
Chris Bowers :: Post-Debate Reaction: Good For Obama

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Post-Debate Reaction: Good For Obama | 43 comments
Obama got worse towards the end (0.00 / 0)
He kept taking unnecessarily conservative lines on foreign policy issues, when running in a more progressive manner would have allowed for much more powerful message creation.

Saying that missile defence was a worthwhile program was one of the more egregious examples of that.

But overall, I think he won.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog

Russia is finally going ahead with its own missile defence (0.00 / 0)
...so I guess the arms race is on.

Of course any scientist can tell you missile shields are a crock, welfare for the military-industrial complex.

[ Parent ]
Both looked good (0.00 / 0)
My guess is both candidates improved their favorability ratings tonight.  I'm not sure what that means for the horse race.
Yeah (0.00 / 0)
On the vague sense of who seemed "presidential," I think they both did.  Maybe that slightly helps McCain for now, since he has decidedly NOT looked presidential for the past week or so.

But a debate maybe doesn't change the state of the race very much unless one candidate fails to look presidential, like when Bush sucked in the first debate four years ago.

[ Parent ]
Missed Opportunities Out The Wazoo (4.00 / 2)
I think Obama seriously missed a lot of opportunities.  He could have, and should have repeatedly put McCain into a position of defending stupid shit.

It seems clear to me that Obama opted for a "safe" "don't lose" strategy.  He pretty much pulled it off.  But the Dems always take that approach, and the long-term payoffs haven't been good.  Fingers crossed that it won't be the case this time.  But McCain was soooo vulnerable.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

My reaction too (4.00 / 1)

 Obama looked at a couple dozen hanging curveballs.

 I mean, he could have destroyed McCain, right then and there, by pointing out McCain's opposition to the new GI bill. That would have knocked down the biggest pillar supporting McCain's candidacy.

 Overall, Obama did fine. But he could have done so much better.

 And McCain did well enough to stay in the game -- a mediocre or worse performance would have all but finished him. But Obama didn't try to put him away, either.

 And all those "I agree with McCain" statements...yuck.  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
Dangerous (4.00 / 3)
The reason why Obama touching McCain's crappy record on veterans affairs was dangerous is because it would've allowed McCain to display righteous anger about his time as a POW with impunity. McCain was baiting Obama by continually throwing that out there. I'm glad that Obama didn't bite. The risk/reward of going there wasn't worth it, in my opinion.

Let Obama's spinners call McCain a liar after the debate. Don't give McCain the opportunity to score cheap emotional points during it.

[ Parent ]
Good summary (0.00 / 0)
I agree with Paul's summary above, though I feel that McCain got the better of it.

He landed some good punches: putting across the argument that higher corporate taxes send jobs overseas, which irrespective of its validity and relevance (to Obama's point) is just the sort of "gotcha" counter-intuitive logic that people like to adopt and repeat to friend because it sounds clever and scientific ;-). He solidified his maverick image by pointing out opposition to Reagan, advocating defence spending cuts, etc. On Iraq, he succeeded in presenting the surge as the decision of consequence and one in which he made the right call. He also portrayed himself as a veteran of politics but not so in an "insider" way (that the public is conditioned to loathe). And finally, he managed to personalise the discussion by drawing general points from his experiences: such as the Reagan/Lebanon issue, the Afghanistan "mistake", etc.

Obama, to his discredit, did not spend enough time to stick the most powerful line of attack: McCain is the same as the GOP and the GOP are the people who brought you this mess (Iraq, Afghanistan, financial crisis, housing problems, Katrina, etc, etc, etc). To his credit, he did respond quickly and effectively when McCain blatantly lied about his (Obama's) positions, and even when doing the disapproving head shake (that is claimed to have sunk Gore) Obama did it with a sort of forgiving smile. Overall, that and similar expression/reaction, painted him as the more affable and assured candidate.

As I mentioned at the top, I would hand this to McCain by a small margin. Let me put it this way: his performance almost made me recall the reasonable John McCain who spoke up against corporate welfare (not his term) on a PBS programme many years ago, not the crazy arse McCain who ran around NYC and Washington the last few days in a manner scarily reminiscent of Dubya's hopping around the countryside at the time of 9/11 ((c) Rudy Giuliani).

[ Parent ]
Independents... (4.00 / 1)
Brad DeLong pointed out on a mailing list that "it's about undecideds" and a CBS poll of undecideds (I presume after the debate) went for Obama 40%-22%. If that is true, then there's something to that point!
[ Parent ]
just now (0.00 / 0)
Brian Williams just interviewed Biden, and said they extended the same to Palin. McCain Campaign declined, and instead offered Guilianni. Hmm..
Can't wait (0.00 / 0)
for the VP debate.
[ Parent ]
Palin wont be doing any spinning (0.00 / 0)
McCain camp announced that earlier. They can't have her taking questions. She's not capable of speaking in complete sentences.  
[ Parent ]
Each gained something tonight.... (4.00 / 1)
Obama definitely came across as someone for whom, if you're worried about him with respect to foreign policy, there should be no further concerns.

McCain was aggressive and more importantly, he sounded a whole lot more sane than the guy portrayed recently by the media, evenif you disagreed with him.  

Obama should have been more on the offensive.  McCain's attempt at pounding his meme into voters' minds, that Obama just didn't understand, fell flat to my ears after a while.  

The thing that hit me the most with this debate was how tangled the conversations, response and counter-response could get, and yet, even with the various barbs bandied about, both candidates seemed relatively well composed, almost to the point where it was, occasionally, dragging.  Note the problem, for me at least, wasn't the policy positions discussed, but that neither candidate seemed to be drawing their viewers into the discussion.

My two bits...

"just doesn't understand" (4.00 / 4)
I really wanted Obama to close by repeating McCain's "just doesn't understand" line.  Something like:

Senator McCain has repeated several times that I "just don't understand".  Make no mistake, this isn't just a tactic, but really how McCain thinks.  Anytime anyone disagrees with him, McCain believes they just don't understand.  Does that sound familiar?  Haven't we've had enough of those who always believe they always know best and won't take opposing views into account?  Can America really survive eight more years of this belligerent attitude?

[ Parent ]
excellent n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
That would have been awesome (0.00 / 0)
Didn't even occur to me, but that would have been a great shot.  I guess it's hard to ask them to come up with anything on the spot when it's such a tense situation.  You don't want to extemporize too much for fear of a major gaffe.

But yeah, nice call.

[ Parent ]
Great Idea, Mark! (0.00 / 0)
I was frustrated that he didn't punch back at that immediately.

But your idea--leaving it to the end, and then punching back like that--is ten times better.

That alone could have effectively ended the election.  It would have been all that anyone talked about all weekend long.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
i was staring (4.00 / 4)
at the green "independent" line on CNN's live audience reaction during the whole thing. That line spent a lot more time in Obama's favor than it did in McCain's. There were even points where the Republican line drifted into positive territory when Obama was speaking. So that's my read on who won.
That's good to hear (0.00 / 0)
As always, it's hard to tell exactly what indies/undecideds are likely to respond positively to.
[ Parent ]
Independent Line (0.00 / 0)
I watched the same thing. Both candidates generally had their partisans with them but the Independent reaction line traveled with the Democratic line much more than with the Republicans. The divergence when the subject was Iraq was particularly noticeable.
[ Parent ]
I am glad to say (0.00 / 0)
that I saw it as independents did, a clear win for Obama who looked confident and more knowledgeable than McCain on the foreign issue aspects. Much to my surprise!
I have to admit, though, that Obama was dissapointing (to me) on the first 20 minutes while discussing the bailout/economy. He needed to talk passionately. But overall, he cleaned McCain up on the main theme of the debate and apparently independents agree!
[ Parent ]
I hated the McCain Condescension. (4.00 / 1)
   It was way too obvious.  I wish Obama would have hit McCain on his bogus point that the Russia-Georgia war was really about ships in Ukraine and oil pipelines.  Please.  Russia has plenty of ships and oil.  They did it to make a statement.  I think McCain needs a Russian geography lesson, because the Russians don't need tiny, mountainous Georgia to build a pipeline.  Russia knows it can actually have Georgia's land.  This was a middle finger to the world.
  McCain is in deep shit on the economy.  No one cares about the damned earmarks.  They care about jobs.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy
Oops. (0.00 / 0)
   CAN'T have Georgian land.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy
[ Parent ]
condescending to the hilt (4.00 / 2)
McCain's overriding nastiness and ego with his continual condescension was infuriating.  His attitude made him almost impossible to listen to anything he had to say.  

So I agree totally with you.    

[ Parent ]
attitude and foreign policy (0.00 / 0)
Furthermore I cannot imagine anyone with a nasty superiority sttitude getting to square one in international diplomacy.  

Therefore Obama wins the topic of the debate by a country mile.    I can believe he will be informed and able to communicate effectively with allies as well  as adversaries.    

McCain proved himself to be unlikely to be able to negotiate with anyone at any time on any subject.  
He makes a decision without sufficient high quality data and without consulting those who have expertise in the area in question.    Then he attacks with ferocity based solely on his oen point of view.  

AND what foreign country will care that he was a POW?    

[ Parent ]
McCain Will Pay a Price (0.00 / 0)
I think they thought they could bully Obama and Dukakis him. It didn't work, and now McCain came off as a bit of a jerk without getting the reward out of being so unlikable.
[ Parent ]
Indeed. (0.00 / 0)
  I don't know why the McCain people thought that they could Dukakis the man who beat Hillary Clinton.  If making Obama a Michael Dukakis had been an option, Hillary would already have done it and dispatched of him.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy
[ Parent ]
Agree with your assessment, Chris (4.00 / 1)
Obama held his own in an area that is supposedly McCain's expertise. He clearly showed he is quite knowledgeable on foreign affairs. That was all Obama needed to do tonight.

But, Obama went beyond that by illustrating how reckless McCain is which of course, lends credence to Obama's better judgment.

McCain came off as a grumpy old man at times, conscending to Obama who clearly had command of the issues. I don't think that will help McCain, at all. He's already walking on thin ice on the temperment issue.

Obama nailed McCain on the economic issues bringing up how McCain lied about his tax plan and voted with Bush 90% of the time.  

Obama's competition was not McCain (0.00 / 0)
Many have the perception that Obama is not ready to be Commander In Chief.    Obama's objective tonight was to address that issue and demonstrate a command of foreign policy/security issues.    He did that.   How he compared to McCain is only of limited interest.    
If you watched...Obama Edge (0.00 / 0)
But, McCain campaign threw this up quick like bunnies.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Weird closing to that ad (0.00 / 0)
OK, so they string together three instances of Obama saying that McCain is right about something.  Ha ha, gotcha, LOLZ.  

But they end by saying, "Is Barack Obama ready to lead? NO."  And you can conclude that because...he's agreeing with McCain?  Huh?

[ Parent ]
idiot beavis and butthead ad (0.00 / 0)
huh huh .. you said agree .. huh huh
[ Parent ]
McCain Always Got Last Word (4.00 / 1)
McCain always managed to get the last word out in basically every segment.  Tactically this is a huge advantage.  Psychologically people will believe whoever gets the literal "last word" as having the credible answer.  This was particularly annoying since McCain would often interject new lies into his final comments.  
Spoiled by Bush (0.00 / 0)
Debates were a lot less tense against Bush, when it was essentially wire-to-wire domination every time, especially with Kerry.  However, the press likes McCain a lot less then they like Bush, so I think his better actual performance(not substantially, of course) will be negated.  I have a lot of faith in Obama and his campaign to learn from this one, and deliver a better performance the next time out.  I do think he got the much better soundbites, compared to mccain's meandering stories and crosstalk
It was an even match, there was strategy and quick thinking on display (0.00 / 0)
McCain has won lots of debates, he has a reputation as a good debater and he did well tonight. He was alert and speaking clearly, no senile gaffer on the stage tonight.

Obama held his own, he took a few hits and he landed a few hits. He always had something smart to say, on point, wonky but he brought it back to larger importance.

The debating strategy made the show interesting, there was lots of flatter then stab in back turnarounds. McCain is a smoother attacker, Obama is a more flexible defender.

McCain brought back his experience theme and it played well in the moment but will it make people start thinking about Palin later? Obama answered with his judgment theme and stood his ground but he could have scored more hits on that.

It will impress people that Obama can hold his own in negotiations. If you had a favorite candidate before the debate I think this reinforced it. Not sure how undecideds will react.  

Nixon vs. Kennedy Part II (0.00 / 0)
There were parts where I was practically screaming at Obama - "don't go there"!  Grrr.

If I had just listened to the debate, I would have given it a tie.

But McCain just looked old and cranky.  When he gets agitated he's downright scary.  If you saw this on TV, the body language said it all - Obama, for the most part cool and composed; McCain, jumpy & fidgety.

War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength; McCain/Palin 2008

angry McCain (0.00 / 0)
gets all stiff and a frozen grin on his face when he would like to rip somebody's head off. You can see him saying to himself count to 10, count to 10..
[ Parent ]
It seems pretty clear that McCain was focused on two overall goals tonight (0.00 / 0)
(1) Separate himself from Bush.

(2) Define Obama as naive and unready to lead.

McCain certainly showed good discipline in sticking to those points, independent of the question of whether he achieved those goals.  Most of what he said tonight was, either directly or indirectly, tied into one of those two themes.  In that sense, it was a solid performance for him.  

Obama, of course, had two opposite goals: tie McCain to Bush, while displaying his own competence and readiness.

Something I kept noticing (0.00 / 0)
Was that McCain spent a really big portion of his speaking time talking about all the places he's visited. While being well-traveled is, you know, a good thing and everything, it was kind of weird that he didn't seem to distinguish between going somewhere to do something and just stuff like his baghdad market strolls.

It occurred to me maybe this was why McCain thought that he'd make a difference by returning to Washington DC this week in the middle of economic negotiations-- the important thing is just to stand around and be there while things are happening...

something that maybe plays well in the moment (0.00 / 0)
but then later what do people think about Palin who has been overseas one time in her life, last year?
[ Parent ]
I Think The Sale Just Got Closed (4.00 / 2)
I had been talking yesterday about how I wanted Obama to win this election the right way. I didn't want him to simply inherit the benefits of a total McCain implosion. I wanted him to stand on that stage tonight and close the sale and win the confidence of the American people. My initial reaction: he did.

And, it wasn't because McCain was terrible. He wasn't. This was one of the best debate performances of John McCain's life, and Obama still beat him. And, Obama not only crossed the line of credibility on foreign policy, but by virtue of McCain's tactics, Obama delivered his righteous indignation moment tonight. I've been saying over the past couple of months that once or twice over the course of this campaign Obama was going to have to have a moment where he projected the kind fire and toughness to the American people to assure them that he did have the ability to grab a back bencher by the scruff of the neck to get them in line to get his legislation passed, and that he has the capability to sit across the table from dictators and despots, look them in the eye, and tell them to go straight to hell to keep this nation safe. He did that tonight.

McCain had a clear game plan and he executed it well. He came into that debate with a strategy of bullying Obama off the stage. The thought must've been that they could make Obama look like a spineless, whimpy "librul" because Obama would not fight back forcefully. He was condescending and he threw everything and the kitchen sink at Obama, including several things that were flat out lies, and Obama cut through them like a buzz saw. And, not only did he do that rhetorically, but from an optics standpoint he made a point of looking straight into the camera or straight at McCain and he displayed the eye of the tiger tonight.

Two takeaway moments from this debate:

1.) That popping sound you heard was the head of every low-information Republican voter exploding when Obama defended his belief that he had actionable intelligence that bin Laden or high level Al Qaeda leaders were in Pakistan that he would send in strikes to kill them, and that McCain wouldn't. And, McCain never really rebutted the point. We can argue about the merits from a policy standpoint of Obama's stance, but from the standpoint of a gut level, visceral reaction, I believe Obama just proved to anyone who might have questions about Obama's ability to fight terror that he absolutely does have a killer instinct to find and destroy Al Qaeda. This wasn't John Edwards' contrived proclamation at the Democratic Convention in 2004 about finding and killing the terrorists. This was tough, Chicago-style talk that will connect with voters. All that was missing was a promise that if Al Qaeda sent forces over the Pakistan and put one of our troops in the hospital, he'd put one of theirs in the morgue.

2.) "We're not going to invite them over for a tea party." For anyone who ever complained Obama doesn't speak in soundbites, there's a golden one I think you're going to see repeated all week long. For as much as McCain has demagogued about meeting without conditions and how Isreal would be endangered by diplomacy with Iran, Obama smacked him down in one simple sentence. It was beautiful. It felt like McCain spent 15 minutes trying to score points there, and Obama swatted him down in 2 seconds.

Now, two things will happen. One, Obama is going to move forward on his national security and readiness to lead numbers. He was in a great position to do so considering Clinton and McCain have been spending more than a year lowering expectations for Obama. He had a low bar to get over and he cleared it by a mile. Two, McCain will pay a price for how aggressive, condescending, and loose with the truth he played in this debate. I think they thought McCain could make Obama look like the 2008 version of Dukakis. They didn't succeed. And now McCain faces a potential backlash in terms of driving up his negatives. We'll have to see, but I could definitely see a small backlash against McCain for his tactics tonight because, frankly, there were times he came across as a total jerk.

Exciting stuff. Now lets let Biden out of the tiger cage!

Obama will decline tomorrow, but not because he lost (0.00 / 0)
My guess is that Obama gains 1%, but it will be difficult to separate from the bounce he is receiving on the economy.

Disagree, but more because of the law of averages than anything else.  

The last few days have been monster gains for him.  I think he'll drop a little bit just from simple regression to the mean.  And perhaps because this debate will remind people that foreign policy exists.  I don't think that has anything to do with how he performed (both were solid but not great), but it's just a matter of anything that distracts from the perfect storm of "it's the economy stupid" and "McCain is a lunatic" that was brewing the past few days will probably dampen the movement toward him.

All that said, I think it'll stay close, and that all things being equal Obama probably "won" the debate in the sense that he didn't give up ground on dangerous terrain.

Ha! (0.00 / 0)
Crap--I feel uncomfortable with TV pundits agreeing with me. I've become everything I've ever hated!

Be careful not to lose self recognition or you'll become a Villager in good standing...

"Don't take much, does it, elected Democrats, to get your balls tucked up." Cf.

Post-Debate Reaction: Good For Obama | 43 comments
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