Swing State Chart, 9/27

by: Chris Bowers

Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 14:30


Here is the latest swing state chart, using only polls with a majority of interviews conducted since September 20th (except for states that didn't have at least two polls conducted in that time frame, in which case I used the two most recent polls):

Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%. Before you ask, if a state isn't listed, it isn't that close right now.)
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin # Polls Obama Total
Obama Base 226 226
Maine-AL 2 49.5% 45.0% +4.5% 2 228
Pennsylvania 21 48.4% 44.1% +4.3% 7 249
Colorado 9 49.4% 45.4% +4.0% 5 258
Virginia 13 48.4% 46.6% +1.8% 5 271
Minnesota 10 47.5% 46.0% +1.5% 2 281
Maine-01 1 -- -- +1.3% 0 282
New Hampshire 4 46.2% 45.2% +1.0% 5 286
North Carolina 15 47.0% 46.0% +1.0% 2 301
Nevada 5 46.0% 45.5% +0.5% 2 306
Missouri 11 46.0% 47.5% -1.5% 2 317
Ohio 20 46.0% 47.7% -1.7% 3 337
Florida 27 46.3% 48.3% -2.0% 4 364
Indiana 11 45.0% 48.0% -3.0% 2 375
McCain Base 163 163

Let the good times roll. Obama clears 270 even without Minnesota, Maine-01, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Nevada, all states where the most recent polls give him a narrow edge. Further, Obama is breathing down McCain's neck in Missouri, Ohio, Florida and Indiana. When one considers that very few of these polls were taken since Obama's Thursday and Friday national tracking poll surge, it is possible that he leads in every single state listed here.

The important thing right now is to stay grounded. It is unlikely that Obama will maintain such a large edge all the way through election day, and we will inevitably have some real scares. The last two times Obama jumped out to a lead like this--following his overseas trip and the convention--McCain made back all of the ground in only one week. Further, debates could still be a trip-up for Obama-Biden, given that expectations will be so low for McCain in the economic debate, and that Palin only has to avoid setting the podium on fire in order to meet expectations. And, of course, even a victory is still just a step, not a destination, toward a progressive governing majority.

Still, these are great numbers, and hopefully bring a smile to your face this Saturday afternoon.
Chris Bowers :: Swing State Chart, 9/27

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Swing State Chart, 9/27 | 11 comments
Don't forget the important secondary effect (0.00 / 0)
Chris, your favorability ratings are soaring as you pass on more positive news.

The messenger survives to see another day!

while it doesn't really matter (0.00 / 0)
I don't understand how a poll which reported the Maine district at O+5 has been turned into O+1.3.  Using data from the other district to lower this one seems off base.


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
I didn't see any internals (0.00 / 0)
That separated by congressional district. I saw "north" and "south," but not "CD-01" and "CD-02."  
[ Parent ]
there's no other way (0.00 / 0)
If it was separated by an unspecified north/south, then it was by the congressional districts. There's no other geographic north/south division in Maine.
[ Parent ]
I'm smiling ... (0.00 / 0)
The numbers look great, and I think the new polls to reflect the feeling of voters after last night's debate will push the numbers even more.  Oh yes, I'm smiling and I'm talking.  That's what all of us should be doing: getting the message into our community by talking with friends and strangers alike.
I'm working my precinct today (0.00 / 0)
here in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

We're happy to be ground zero in all this.

5.5 in the trackers. (0.00 / 0)
Rasmussen is +6.  Rasmussen!  
Makes a perfect night into a perfect day (4.00 / 1)

I'm just glad (4.00 / 1)
that we don't have to deal with, at least for a couple of weeks, more posts comparing Obama to Dukakis.
Progressive First (0.00 / 0)
And, of course, even a victory is still just a step, not a destination, toward a progressive governing majority.

Lately there is reason to wonder what direction that step is in. Obama is looking ever so much like Clinton in his support for the financial aristocracy who fund him.  I am reluctant to allow Obama, or any high level Democrat, to be the standard-barer or really even the hope of progresses. The only measure by which these people are progressive is in comparison to Republicans. While we must support them as the better of a very limited choice, let us project a vision beyond those choices.  Progressive first, Democrat by necessity.

Great polls. (0.00 / 0)
  I completely agree that we need more than an Obama presidency to ensure a progressive government.  But I think you guys are missing something.  Everyone knows that the progressive movement's candidate was Obama.  I know, I know, plenty of progressives supported Clinton and Edwards.  But the progressive movement is on record in the media for getting behind Obama.  If Obama wins, our wing of the party will gain power EVEN if Obama does not support all progressive policies.  Jerome Armstrong's wing of the party will lose lots of power.  We went all in for Obama in this election, and everyone knows it.  If we lose, well...the consequences would set us back decades.  

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy
Swing State Chart, 9/27 | 11 comments
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