The Idiots Who Oppose The Bailout

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:30


Being one of the roughly one hundred and eighty million Americans who opposed the bailout bill today, I have to say that I can't remember being called stupid so often in a 24 hour period so many times in my life. Like the many other lobotomized zombies that compose, or decompose, the slathering, brain dead hordes who simply don't understand economics, it is important to speak to me slowly, remind me that I should abrogate all of my decision making to academic experts and, if I don't, that it will be an example of how democracy itself has failed.

Yeesh. I think I am developing a better understanding of why the conservative backlash narrative works so well. People on the losing side of major legislative and electoral battles in America really do have a habit of calling the winners stupid. When discussing the defeat of the bailout today, the pundit tone on television was almost universally patronizing, sneering disbelief. This even though the pundits were talking about members of Congress who almost all have advanced degrees, who all were democratically elected by hundreds of thousands of people, who acted under enormous stress and in opposition to all available leadership, and who by virtually every available measure are all really, very successful, hard working, people who work in public service. And yet, the disbelief as to how this group of Neanderthals would dare to put the country in such a grim position by daring to vote against this bailout is surely a sign of not only idiocy, but of the failure of the democratic process itself.

After being told at least two dozen times today that my opposition to the bailout is not valid because I don't have enough college credit in economics, I think a few things need to be said. I say them in the extended entry.

Chris Bowers :: The Idiots Who Oppose The Bailout
Just to be clear:

There are literally hundreds of Ph.D. economists on every side of the bailout argument. There are hundreds of economists who agree with the bailout, as is. There are hundreds of economists who agree with the House Republicans. There are hundreds of economists who don't think anything should be done. There are hundreds of economists who agree with the progressives. There are hundreds of economists who agreed with Paulson, and Bush, and Frank, and Dodd, and pretty much everyone involved with this argument.

Having an advanced degree does let you realize the foundational truth that the public lacks. In fact, in my experience of six years in graduate school, people with advanced degrees actually disagree with each other more than do people without advanced degrees. I believe in study, research and increasing your understanding of the world, but opinions do not narrow when people study more. Graduate students do not all slowly come to see eye to eye as they approach the end of their coursework. Increased study does not necessarily lead you to the right opinion--it just leads you toward a more informed opinion. And being right and being more informed are by no means the same thing.

Further, it is important to remember that no one understands something as complicated as the economy. While certainly there degrees of understanding, the truth is that the highest level of understanding of the economy ever attained by any human is still pretty frackin' puny relative to the ginormous scope of the subject matter. Just as it is important to study, it is important to always demonstrate humility about our understanding of pretty much everything. Keep in mind, for example, that humans who live now are just as smart as we were 50,000 years ago, but it still took 48,000 years for even the smartest of humans to guess that the world we inhabited that entire time was actually a sphere. And it took another 1,500 years to actually prove it.

I have a word of friendly, concern troll advice to all those who lose electoral or legislative battles in a democratic system: don't talk down to the winners. This applies in pretty much any electoral or legislative situation, and not just in the specific case of the bailout. You didn't lose because your opponents are dumb. You lost because you failed to convince enough people you were right. That is actually a failing on your part, not of your opponents. In this specific case, it is a massive failing on the part of the people who supported the bailout. They had both presidential candidates, the leadership of both parties in both branches of Congress, virtually the entire national media, and all of the moneyed interests in their corner, and they still couldn't convince a majority of either the public or congressional backbenchers that it was a good idea. If you ask me, that is actually pretty frackin' pathetic. Some might even wonder if there is a fundamental stupidity at the core of this proposal if, with virtually all the levers of public influence supporting it, the majority of the country still thinks it is a bad idea.

Besides, if there is one subject where everyone in America is something of an expert, it is the economy. Everyone is forced to live in it, everyday, and so we all have on the job training and experience in how it works. To then tell people that their lifetime of experience is not enough for them to hold a valid opinion on how it should be fixed is only bound to increase their resentment of you, and thus their opposition to your policies.


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Epic Win (4.00 / 10)
Thanks for posting this. It mostly echoes my sentiments.

The fact that our representatives finally fear "The Uprising" is what impresses me the most. That alone, is good news.

I hate being told to listen to "experts". Yes, they're probably more well-educated than me. But I want a say in where my money goes, too.

Besides, we'll just work to make the bill better. Or the GOP will throw a tempertantrum and the Dems will give in.  


Yes, Epic! (4.00 / 3)
I'm sure the people who won't get paid next week will feel the exact same way...

Chris may have a point about not talking down to the "winners", but it's also important to note that the winners shouldn't be gloating too much... after all, millions of Americans will be wiped out as a result of a failure to act... those who have 401K's, nearing retirement, or even simply, those who are employed by both large and small businesses...  

Let's not forget that the country will pay a terrible price for our "victory"...  I guess that's tempered by the fact that the country will pay a terrible price regardless of the eventual outcome of this bailout... but, it is bad form to gloat in front of millions who are about to suffer severely regardless of the result of this bill.  

Sure, we got our pound of flesh... we denied the wall street "fat cats" their money... yay!  Now, we will pay a terrible price for our Pyrrhic victory.  There will be payback.  Remember how we gloated about beating Lieberman in the primary?  How did that end up?  The result was worse than we could have imagined!  It's the same here, only that real lives are now at stake...

So, before we get all giddy, let's realize that, in the end, we all will probably lose, no matter what the result of the bailout.  Bailout passes, and we are stuck being out of money.... bailout fails, and the economy collapses (and it will collapse, Chris, maybe not next week, but soon... there is no money to go around)...  hell, the economy will probably collapse, even with a bailout....  The fed is printing money out the ying yang to loosen credit, and the FDIC is paying out real dollars left and right.  Time magazine says we are already paying more than what the bailout even calls for with the current regulations that are being enforced by regulators...

This is no time to gloat, Chris.  Regardless of what happens, we are all going to feel a lot of financial pain.  Please show some respect for those who are suffering.  Just as a military victory offers little comfort for the mother of a fallen soldier, this "victory" offers very little comfort for the dying middle class, who will bear the cost of this financial crisis, bailout or no bailout.

The populist mobs who were against this bill, might quickly change their minds soon enough when they struggle to put food on the table... so, I would temper the celebration until we really know what the end result is going to be.

If it ends up that we DO enter a second depression as a result of not passing this bill, well, this victory won't mean that much now, will it?  If not, I will gladly admit my error and give you all the credit for being right.  I could care less who is right or wrong... I want this country to prosper again.  And, quite frankly, I'll throw ideological purity right out the window if it means that the American Dream is restored to millions of Americans.

We'll see what happens in a few weeks...  I hope you are right, Chris... there are a lot of people's lives riding on this gamble.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
Still (4.00 / 8)
the banks are failing due to the failure of mortgage backed securities?  Why not bail out the homeowners, rather than the banks?  If the homeowners can pay their mortgages, then the securities are suddenly good.  Doesn't that save the banks, but also protect homeowners and taxpayers?  

Why are we stuck with one horrible option, that the republicans insist on, and there is no debate about alternatives, and then, when Paulson's 'all your cash are belong to me' plan fails, everyone who said, 'I think not' is the group that's problematic?


[ Parent ]
The immediate need (0.00 / 0)
is to unfreeze the credit markets. Trying to bailout homeowners is a complicated task, which has to be done, but will take time. But without a rescue for the credit markets, we might lose our jobs before we lose our homes.

[ Parent ]
Hand wringers. (4.00 / 6)
Gloat, how did you get gloat out of that?  Not only did you miss the point, you twisted it into something it wasn't, which was the point.  

What makes you think you're opinion or Paulson's opinion is any better than mine, Bowers, or Bernie Sanders?  

They're asking for another four years -- in a just world, they'd get 10 to 20. ~~ Dennis Kucinich  


[ Parent ]
Oops - your n.t (0.00 / 0)


They're asking for another four years -- in a just world, they'd get 10 to 20. ~~ Dennis Kucinich  

[ Parent ]
Wrong! (4.00 / 1)
The Republicans voted this down. And their excuse is that Nancy Pelosi hurt their feelings!

60% of Democrats voted for it, and the rest only voted against it because they wanted MORE protections for homeowners and the general public in the bill, such as reforming the bankruptcy laws to allow the courts to modify the terms of defaulted mortgages, etc.

Republicans on the other hand rejected the bill because "it's socialism!" It wouldn't matter to them what "public safeguards" there were in the bill because they're philosophically opposed to it.

And when they come back on Thursday with the markets melted down, they will be even stronger in their opposition having talked to the ignorant rednecks in their districts -- OR they will vote for it because the chamber of commerce and local bankers will be telling them "My local bank is next, and if my bank goes under so does our town, which will affect how a lot of voters around here feel about you! You might want to think about that before you vote next time, asshole!"

Either way, Democrats will simply negotiate a better bill with Bush and then pass it over Republican objections.

And then after the markets calm down we can go back to lobbying for lots of reforms. Not everything needs to be done in this one bill and we can certainly revisit all these issues. Remember that this one loan isn't the end of government intervention in the economy, but the beginning.  

And where there were 190 Republicans before the election there will be around 150 after it. Works out just fine!

Some of these bastards are going to win re-election by 90% in uncompetitive districts, but some are closely contested. And voters aren't keen on losing their jobs and having their mortgage rates go up because the Republicans in Congress won't act!


[ Parent ]
"one hundred and eighty million Americans" (4.00 / 6)
That's an impressive number.  Where did you come up with that?

Polling has been bad on it, and I think you overestimate what the actual opposition to it is.  Opposition to it was high when it was referred to as a "wallstreet bailout" and low when it was referred to as something else.  It seems like most people actually wanted something to get done, but for the most part just hate having to pay for it.

This is the same as it always is.  It's like asking someone "Would you rather pay 10% in taxes or 20% in taxes?"  Clearly, the former always wins.  That doesn't necessarily mean that we should just have 10% taxes, and if you were to ask more about tax POLICY you'd probably get an even different answer.

The point is, if you ask people to pay for something, they pretty much universally hate it.  However, ask them about the bigger picture and they'll often get closer to where they really are, and I think that's what we've seen with the polling.

In any case, if you are right and 180M American's opposed the bailout, I expect Republicans to start doing dramatically better in the generic ballots, and McCain to quickly start closing in on Obama again, as they're being blamed/credited for the bill's stalling.


so... (4.00 / 5)
"It seems like most people actually wanted something to get done, but for the most part just hate having to pay for it."

I agree -- which amounts in this case to opposing the bailout. Bowers' is not saying "I agree with 180 million people in saying we should do nothing, ever, about this", which is the only statement you implicitly contradict.

"ask them about the bigger picture and they'll often get closer to where they really are, and I think that's what we've seen with the polling."

What is the "bigger picture" on this bailout? How does it change business as usual? Which firms and people are going to pay penalties? Who will benefit? Will ordinary Americans receive direct bailout or is it "trickle down"? In five years how different will the mechanisms underlying the economy look?

These are all rhetorical questions because, of course, there is no "big picture" on the bailout. It is being presented as emergency medicine by "those who know better" -- who happen to be the best and brightest that got the public into the mess in the first place.


[ Parent ]
Still, where does the number come from? (0.00 / 0)
You're right, Bowers statement is more like "I'm with the 180 millions who opposed THIS bill, not economic countermeasures in general". However, where does the number come from? I can't remember seeing any poll which supports this statement. Imho the number of Americans who are really willing to take the risk and wait for a better plan, or no plan at all, is much lower.  

[ Parent ]
guesstimated (0.00 / 0)
from the polls, I would assume -- 180 million is what, 60% or so of the public, and it's not hard to find polls that find those kinds of numbers opposed.

Nitpicking aside, the essential point is profound and important: the elite (MSM+Congressional elite) opinion and the public opinion is massively out of line on this one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...


[ Parent ]
You're counting kids and babies??? (0.00 / 0)
Well, 180 million is about 60% of the public, but it's certainly not the number of those who hold an opinion on the crisis question. And pls show us exactly what has been asked. I suspect that it doesn't support the broad statement that they categorically denied the bill. They may think it's a not a good deal, and there should have been a better plan, ok. But certainly many among this crowd were reluctantly willing to eat crow and not to take the risk.

[ Parent ]
yeah (4.00 / 1)
that's nitpicking.

Click the link to see the nature of the questions and how it changes depending on the slant. Follow up with a post about how it could be "as low as 100 million" depending on whether college students only use cellphones these days.

Also, why suddenly is everyone spelling "please" "pls" and "sorry" "sry"? Is there a credit crunch on vowels?


[ Parent ]
Dunno what you try to prove with the link... (4.00 / 1)
those numbers actually support my view, too, didn't you notice???
"In a survey conducted September 19-22 by the Pew Research Center, by a margin of 57 percent to 30 percent, Americans supported the bailout when asked "As you may know, the government is potentially investing billions to try and keep financial institutions and markets secure. Do you think this is the right thing or the wrong thing for the government to be doing?""

This only shows, it all depends on the exact wording of the question.

As for "sry" and "pls" - if you would be a lousy at typing as me, you wouldn't ask about the missing vowels. Congratulations for your keyboard skills.


[ Parent ]
People support the idea of a bailout (4.00 / 1)
But this bailout stinks. And they know it. You shouldn't snarf down the first piece of moldy bread lying on the pavement just because you're hungry.

[ Parent ]
You better do, (0.00 / 0)
if you have reason to believe this will be the last piece of food you will get for a long time.

[ Parent ]
Where did the $700,000,000,000 number come from? (4.00 / 3)
I think that's a more pertinent question to be asking, asking of Mr. Paulson and his supporters, that is.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
Hasn't this already been answered? (4.00 / 1)
It was in the news recently. A staffer of the treasury conceded that they pulled this out of their, uh, made this up. They just wanted to spread a "really large number". Sounds horrible, I know, but on the other hand, nobody can put an exact pricetag on how much money is needed for a turnaround of the negative trend. This would take a crystal ball, not a TV set or laptop.

[ Parent ]
You are satisfied with THAT answer? (4.00 / 1)
The fact that NO ONE can tell me why they need this much money and NEED IT NOW, makes me think they are just trying to fleece me.

What was that phrase that GWB mangled?  "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me".  What about getting fooled for 3rd or 4th time?


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
Not really (0.00 / 0)
And it's not exactly rising confidence that the Treasury can't come up with at least a loose calculation of the money needed. But on the other hand it's obvious that you need more than some few billions to move anything, and the 700 billion number is in the right dimension.

And sry to hear the Bush administration fooled you so often. They never fooled me. Still waiting for the first time.


[ Parent ]
I was speaking of "fooling" rhetorically (0.00 / 0)
While you and I may have seen through the Bush charades, many people did not, especially in the Congress and the M$M.  They appear to be fooled with regularity.

But, more seriously, I have not yet heard a coherent argument from the administration, the Federal Reserve, or ex-Investment banker Paulson as to exactly where and how this became a "crisis", and why I am to simply abicate my descision-making to the "experts" and fork over all the money that they can't really say that they need.

All I've heard is a lot of extortion talk and condescension.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
Almost all pundits believe there is a crisis (0.00 / 0)
and I guess that's why ÜPaulson finds it unnecessary to repeat their points. He's a Wall Street pro, after all, not accustomed to mere mortals questioning his judgments.

But for a more liberal view of the situation, take a look at all those graphs at Krugman's and DeLong's blog. Scary! Clearly, there is a crisis and something has to be done. Only when it comes to finding the best plan, opinions vary widely. However, both liberal economics profs mentioned above prefer the swedish model of kind of nationalizing the banks. This would boost capitalization, reinforce confidence that those institutes won't fail, and if all goes well the taxpayer would even reap a nice profit from it. The only remaining question is: Will the Dems have the balls to push this through all alone? Cause it's totally unlikely that republicans would support such a "socialist" plan.


[ Parent ]
Almost all pundits agreed Saddam Hussein was a "threat", too (0.00 / 0)
I apologize to Mr. Paulson that he has to deal with "mere mortals" asking difficult questions, but maybe he should take a moment to consider that he and the rest of the "Wall Street pro[s]" are the ones that created this "crisis", and now that are coming to all these "mere mortals", cap in hand.

Maybe I don't rank high enough on the food-chain to deserve a speech from Paulson (and I think his opinion is clouded by conflict of interest anyway), but what about one or more of those politicians that are always claiming to "lead" the nation?  Maybe some of those folks would like to step foreward and start explaining why this is a crisis and why they can't take the time to think about and explain what they are planning to do with our money.  I know they have the time to spare, because they seem to talk alot and they are hitting the fundraisers even as i type.

I guess that fear doesn't scare me any more.

How can we "find the best plan", when some of the experts are crying that we need to "act now"?  Doesn't leave much time for thought, debate, and explanation, does it?

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
Uh, no! (0.00 / 0)
Only those who made it into the TV news. But that's not the fault of the pundits, but that of the media.

[ Parent ]
Same media that's trying to sell me a bank bail out plan (0.00 / 0)
I don't know if Judith Miller is a "pundit", but she sure wasn't on TV.

So, why shouldn't I expect some explanation from the administration?

Hell, I'd like to hear from the executives of these banks that are going (or, by the grace of the US tax-payer, NOT going) bell up in a public forum. explaining why they need the money and how they plan to see to it that it is used wisely.  I mean, if its such a dire crisis, shouldn't they be willing to step up and make their case?  Why are they hiding behind Paulson and the economists?

If they want my money, let them ask for it in person.  I've had quite enough of their hired guns (Paulson and the Congress).  

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
Actually... (4.00 / 1)
"These are all rhetorical questions because, of course, there is no "big picture" on the bailout. It is being presented as emergency medicine by "those who know better" -- who happen to be the best and brightest that got the public into the mess in the first place."

This is actually your opinion, and not fact.

I think what you're asking for is a fundamental change in the way our economy is shaped.  I couldn't agree more, but that's not what this bailout is for.

The bigger picture I speak of here is "Should the government do something about the economic crisis."  This question is an overwhelming "yes".  The bill that was out there today was a compromise to try and bring both parties together.  Instead, it was killed.

Is that good for us?  I'm honestly not convinced, both politically or ideologically.  Do Democrats try and get more House Republicans or House Democrats?  That depends on how badly they want a bipartisan bill... I'll let you decide which ideological direction you think that means the next bill will be going.


[ Parent ]
It will depend on.. (0.00 / 0)
how soon there will be a better bill that passes. That the stocks crashed 7% after the rejection is a sign that the situation IS serious, and that the players react sensibly on every devlopment. We shouldn't forget 'the' econonmy isn't really a monlithic structure, it's simply a term decribing the economic actions of the people. And if the people start to panik, like they did on October 29, 1929, this while have dire consequences. So, the psychologc aspect is of uttermost importance, and we can only hope for positive news that will sooth the vibrating nerves everywhere. But nobody can predict if the market players have the nerves to wait for these news. I can totally understand that there are risk adverse people willing to accept the bird in the hand instead of waiting for the two in the bush. After all, gambling in disregard of risks is what brought us into this mess.  

[ Parent ]
you're being very slippery (4.00 / 3)
You imply that:

A. this bill was a good way to "do something about the economic crisis." (implicit in your fourth paragraph.)

I disagree (opinion), and so do most economists (fact.)

B. that you don't know if the bill is good or not (your last paragraph.)

Hence, slipperyness. Further (you make an additional, new point):

C. despite (B), we should have passed the bill any way because then we could change it tomorrow.

Which is bizarre: we should pass a bill that we don't like (or are not sure if we like) because later we will pass a new bill that will undo all the bad bits of the first bill.

The only explanation I can think of is that you think Wall Street needs "a bit of theatrics" and that once we calm them down we can ask them for a do-over.


[ Parent ]
Let's not mince words again (0.00 / 0)
Yeah, maybe they didn't say it was a "good way" to react, but simply one way to cope with the crisis. The point is, the overwhelming majority says something has to be done. And many, if not most, supported the flawed Paulson/Dodds plan because they fear that further delay can negatively offset the benefits of a better plan.  

As for Wall Street - sure they need some theatre. Economics essentially is the science of the economic consequences of mass psychology, imho.  


[ Parent ]
A good compromise leaves no one happy... (0.00 / 0)
That's what this was... no one was really happy with the final results... it was supposed to get everyone on board though.  There were things I would've rather seen, and I probably would've liked to have seen it start at a lower number (and actually, I was happy to see it start at 250-350 before needing to be scaled up to the full 700B, but whatever).

[ Parent ]
ok (0.00 / 0)
So now you are back to saying it is a "good compromise" -- i.e., that in preference to waiting and working out something better, this bill should have been passed. You are in disagreement with vast numbers of economists on this point.

[ Parent ]
Let's simply say it was a compromise... (0.00 / 0)
not exactly a good one. Lesharc says that nobody was happy with it, so "good compromise" certainly is too strong a term. But let's not nitpick on this. The meaning is clear, imho.

[ Parent ]
It's good because everybody hates it? (4.00 / 1)
That's a terrible metric. Sometimes there are good reasons nobody likes it.

[ Parent ]
thank the gods the election's just a month away (4.00 / 3)
no doubt that played a part in our congresspeople's reluctance to be seen voting for this bill.

I never thought I would be thankful for the obstinacy of the Republicans. Without the confusion and division in their ranks, this bill would've passed handily, just like the FISA bill.


feature turned into a bug (4.00 / 2)
Pres. "shock doctrine" Bush thought he could get huge bailout through in last week of session where members had to get home to run for re-election. The miscalculation was huge public sentiment against the bill.

...

One point missing from this discussion is to what extent there is now a financial crisis solely because the Fed and Treasury have declared there is a crisis. (Shades of al quaeda in Iraq only after we invaded Iraq.)

They call me Clem, Clem Guttata. Come visit wild, wonderful West Virginia Blue


[ Parent ]
If you're really interested in the answer (4.00 / 2)
check all those charts posted by Krugman, DeLong, Roubini, Ritholz, and all the other pundits at their sites. Sure, nothing in economics is really carved in stone, but there is lots of serious evidence that something is amiss with the economy. Imho simply ignoring this is a sign of dangerous denial.  

[ Parent ]
What this has all shown me (4.00 / 6)
Is that many, perhaps even most, blog readers and participants are basically Reaganites when it comes to the economy. They are either hostile to progressive economic solutions or are convinced they're unattainable (which is its own form of hostility).

In turn they are easily moved by Republican scare tactics on the economy, especially on the financial sector. They prove Grover Norquist's argument that the 401k is the magic bullet that kills liberalism. A sharp decline in the markets is enough to send them scurrying to conservative economic thought for cover. Anything to rescue the markets.

There are a great many Hooverites on the blogs these days. It's profoundly depressing, but a sign of the work we need to do in explaining progressive economic ideas to the people.


I think that's a little simplistic (4.00 / 4)
I was tepidly in favor of the bailout but I'd also be for nationalizing the banks and a 10% income tax surcharge on multimillionaires and a new graduated capital gains tax if that were politically feasible.

Now that it has failed I think Dems can get a lot more, but what I do fear is that the leadership has no stomach to play hardball and get anything else to pass this. Maybe CBC can come forward with a list of demands that will get their unanimous support.  


[ Parent ]
You, as one, are anecdotal. (0.00 / 0)
The meme in the blogs "we're all going to diiiiiiie" is not.  No, of course the Dem leadership will sell us out. Its what they do best.  But every day they don't have their hands on that money is less day they have to rip us off.  

They're asking for another four years -- in a just world, they'd get 10 to 20. ~~ Dennis Kucinich  

[ Parent ]
No (0.00 / 0)
the "meme in the blogs" is identical to eugene's comment above. Go read all of Stoller, Sirota, and kos's posts.

"Stop this bailout at all costs! Nothing bad will happen, and if you are unsure about the bailout, you are a Reaganite, Hooverite, conservative who is stupid about economics!"


[ Parent ]
Yeah, screw the markets... (4.00 / 3)
They don't mean anything.

Oh wait...


[ Parent ]
this is a misreading (0.00 / 0)
there are surely people who are mistrustful of the government spending money - the entire republican governing philosophy from reagan onwards has been to prove by demonstration that the government is irresponsible because the argument didn't work for a long time.  (you can look it up).  combine this with ideas like starve the beast, the frighteningly authoritarian behavior (by american standards) of the bush administration, and of course people who are naturally disinclined to trust the bush administration are going to be appalled by anything that follows from a request for $700 billion from them with no oversight so they can give money to their friends in the name of sustaining the economy.  Consider it a version of "the boy who cried wolf."

I would love to see a solution to this problem and the government is the only one they can offer it (except maybe the IMF, whose job it is to be lender of last resort, but that's the same thing basically).  But the bill passed has to minimally be an economic solution that is deep and not shallow (or worse, counterproductive) and at best it would actually attend to the interests of people in the world who are marginal and suffering because of this - the people in whose name the Iraq War, the bailout, and many other policies are argued for but for whose interests they are not implemented.


[ Parent ]
And this comment proves (0.00 / 0)
why Chris' post ("people unsure about or in favor of the bailout are calling me stupid!") is ludicrous. Who, exactly, is doing the namecalling? Who exactly is it that is pretending they know with absolute certainty that everything will be fine?

Looks to me like you've just joined the ranks of Matt, Sirota, and Chris in doing the namecalling and pretending that you are all knowing.

Apparently if I am worried about doing nothing until January I am a "Reaganite"; "hostile" to progressive economic solutions; "scurrying to conservative economic thought"; am willing to do "[a]nything to rescue the markets; a "Hooverite".


[ Parent ]
Huh? (0.00 / 0)
Since when are we proposing "doing nothing"? That's one reason I went so far as to make the Reaganite charge - a lot of people are saying our choice was literally "Paulson or bust." It's not. You're assuming progressive ideas don't have any chance, you're writing as if they do not exist. Proves my point.

[ Parent ]
it actually is the same thing as proposing "doing nothing" (0.00 / 0)
You are ignoring the fact that George Bush is president until January 2009, and he has to sign whatever plan passes Congress for it to become law.

What kind of plan do you think Bush will sign into law? A progressive plan? A good plan? A plan that meets the criteria and demands I've seen laid out around here?

I can't imagine why everybody around here believes Bush would sign a plan they would like. Really what everybody is doing here is banking on Bush signing a good bill.

So there are only two options: (1) pass a bill Bush is willing to sign; or (2) wait until January 2009. That's not pessimism, that's a fact.


[ Parent ]
Dumping $700 billion on Wall Street... (0.00 / 0)
...with minimal accountability or oversight and no substantive changes to the regulatory breakdown that led to the current situation is NOT a "progressive economic solution".

A progressive economic solution is to invest in our people and our infrastructure for the long term.

This debate has people saying the most absurd things.  Saying them with extreme arrogance and condescension, too, I might add.


[ Parent ]
Do as I say, not as I do (4.00 / 5)
That's what I got out of this post.

Funny when someone gets passionate on the side you disagree with it is all bad, but when your side gets passionate it is a-ok.

Yes, people who honestly believe there is a huge emergency that needs to be dealt with right away are very upset at the people who stopped it.  They believe you don't see what is happening and abandoned the chance put the disaster on hold.

Now, I actually agree with what you say in this post.  I just find it ironic because you've never taken this advice yourself.


Although... (4.00 / 2)
now that I slow down enough to notice that Chris wrote this... Chris has been the best of the big four authors at this site when it comes to taking this advice.  Dang, what I wrote really applies to the other three but I'm less sure, here.

Well, ... , maybe I'll apologize in the morning.  Let me sleep on that.  :-)


[ Parent ]
I'm basically with you Mark (4.00 / 8)
Chris is usually very measured in tone and it's appreciated, here I think he is understandably angry.

However, you and I and lehscrac and a few others basically said on this site "well, we think the bailout as is is necessary despite its flaws" and were accused of acting in bad faith.  It's the accusations of bad faith against people who come to a site like Openleft--Openleft!--that really gets to me.  We participate here because we want the progressive movement to grow also, but given our view on this, we're just shouted down also.

I also don't think, despite Chris's point, that it's beyond comprehension that popular support isn't the best gauge of the correct public policy in a case like this, where understanding the credit markets is an incredibly difficult process.  That's why I decided to outsource to economists I trust.  Chris is right, we can find economists to support any of our views, that's why I honestly used the heuristic of "Krugman, Delong."  I'm willing to accept my ignorance on this, and those are people who I think are very smart economists, and are certainly not ones to be duped by conservative daddies.  

I hope we can get a better bill through, but I had a similar feeling to Chris today, just on the other side of the issue on this site.  David Sirota and Matt honestly argued as though we were playing for the other team, we jsut don't get it, don't you see you're being duped, you're just a corporate dem.  Well, no, I hate this bill, but frozen credit markets are a damn real problem, and time matters, so I formed an opinion, not confidently.  I hope this point of view gets taken under consideration, because I am damn near certain I'm not the only one who felt this way.


[ Parent ]
Totally support this view (4.00 / 1)
I couldn't say it more eloquently, even if I spend the whole day finetuning phrases. Thx for putting this on the record, Werty83!

[ Parent ]
Of course (4.00 / 4)
if the bailout had reduced the capital gains tax rate to 0%, then all those hard-working public servants in the Republican Party would have been all for it.

I think the Democrats have a chance to get a huge advantage out of this mess now by acting like grown-ups picking up after the cry-baby republicans. And they can do it by passing a purely Democratic bill with only 230-250 votes in the House. The Senate is too scared to filibuster something now with the Dow plunging. But I don't think that's where leadership is going and that's a huge wasted opportunity.  


Well, we are going to have to own it, unfortunately... (4.00 / 1)
...but, in the next few days, I think the American people will be OK with us doing something responsibly.... hopefully, it won't be too late...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
why is "owning it" a problem? (0.00 / 0)
Either we believe that progressive solutions will work, or we don't. If we have a chance to implement a progressive solution, we should take it - if it works, then "owning" the issue isn't a problem.

The whole point of winning elections is to take responsibility for the governance of our country - something that the GOP has refused to do. We should gladly "own" this problem AND its solution.

What's the point of winning if we're going to run from any responsibility?


[ Parent ]
Nanci Pelosi's comments gave me hope (4.00 / 2)
her floor speech (which supposedly pissed off the decisive Republicans sufficiently) indicates that she might be sick of the Republican shit.  Throw a bill out there for Democrats only, completely with a repeal of hte horrible bankruptcy bill, mortgage subsidies, and government equity.  Do something that will pick up a bunch of Democratic votes, and force the Republicans to come out against.  Force bush to make a veto threat.  

[ Parent ]
Look man (4.00 / 7)
All this place does right now is post loudly and angrily about how stupid everyone else is on the bailout situation.  And now this post.  I mean, wow.

And then there's this:

I have a word of friendly, concern troll advice to all those who lose electoral or legislative battles in a democratic system: don't talk down to the winners. This applies in pretty much any electoral or legislative situation, and not just in the specific case of the bailout. You didn't lose because your opponents are dumb. You lost because you failed to convince enough people you were right. That is actually a failing on your part, not of your opponents.

It just defies my ability to process the cognitive dissonance.  Doesn't this sentiment completely obliterate the central premise of the progressive blogosphere?  In what imaginable world did you take this advice on FISA, for example?  It just blows my mind.

I gave up on MyDD and came over here because that place was turning into an echo chamber where anyone who didn't accept a lot of basic premises was screamed at constantly.  

I'm feeling the same way now about Open Left because I'm so frustrated with the constant stream of "EVERYONE IS TOO STUPID TO UNDERSTAND HOW BAD THIS DEAL IS" followed by a post about how people are being mean in comments.

Honestly, I don't feel comfortable enough with the details to have a strong opinion one way or another.  I do my best to puzzle it out. I'm ambivalent on the bailout.  And I'm not happy with any options.  But I have to be honest and say that I'm far more persuaded by the cautious supporters than I am by the righteous denunciations going on here.  Right now this place just has the feel of a witch-hunt where all information becomes more proof of the party line.

Maybe that doesn't matter to you.  If you see this as a time when people who already agree should get together and talk here, that's fine.  But if you're interested in getting people to accept your arguments, I just can't see this being effective.  I am not stupid, but I don't accept the truth of the OpenLeft perspective that it's insane to even think there might be a crisis and anti-progressive to even consider that maybe something has to be done.  More than that, I don't like being yelled at and that's sure what it feels like.

Anyways, count me as one guy who's signing out of here for a couple weeks at least.


"I have a cunning plan that will not fail" (4.00 / 2)
LOL

Could't resist.

I like your comments; I agree this site doesn't have a steady rudder yet. But its more interesting than reading about Palin or identity politics elsewhere on the web...


[ Parent ]
not quite (3.00 / 4)
The writers on this site -- along with most economists (and, if you are a little-d democrat and care, most Americans) -- contradict the center-right Democratic and GOP coalition, and the MSM, narrative that a crisis is immanent and we must act now with a flawed and bogus package.

Go and read even the more Obama-cheerleady people like Krugman -- who has hardly been sounding a drumbeat for an immediate yes vote on the bailout and offers only lukewarm endorsement.

If you hear this as simply "angry and stupid", go read a different site and stop telling the writers they're suffering from some form of "Bush Derangement Syndrome."

Meanwhile, from my point of view, the insistence on some basic sanity -- along with non-trivial analysis -- made by the writers on OpenLeft right now will turn out to be hugely prescient compared to most of the reactions from the "liberals."


[ Parent ]
Most ecomomists contradict the narractive of a crisis??? (0.00 / 0)
Excuse me pls, but who??? I can remember only one economic pundit (sry, forgot his name, started with R, I believe) who went public with a theory that everything will be A-OK if the markets are left on their own. All others acknoledged there is a dire cirsis, and only differed in their recipes to solve it.  

[ Parent ]
immediate action: not necessary (0.00 / 0)
finish reading the sentence before posting (also, "please" is spelt "please" and one question mark per sentence is sufficient.)

I have seen no credible, independent economist who claims that immediate action is necessary to avert a crisis. Most, including Krugman, contradict the idea that action in the next 24 hours, 48 hours, seven days is necessary to avoid a Depression.

Here are some other things to read:

http://www.thenation.com/doc/2...
http://freakonomics.blogs.nyti...



[ Parent ]
Krugman was FOR the bill!!! (4.00 / 1)
He called the US a "banana republic" for its lawmakers not being able to get their stuff together. Stop misrepresenting his position, pls.

Also, pls note, this isn't my native language, and you are not the language police here. Plus, there aren't any rules at OpenLeft about the usage of question marks or about proper spelling. So, sry, but I don't care about the high standards you pretend to support. Actually, I suspect you only tried to divert the attention with this side blow.
:P


[ Parent ]
Neither link says nothing should be done (0.00 / 0)
I guess if by "immediate" you mean the Paulson plan and only the Paulson plan, then you're in agreement, but that's a very narrow parsing of "immediate".

It's certainly a lot different from Chris' position, which is "nothing until January 20th".

It's clear now that something other than Paulson can happen if the second vote doesn't get it done.


[ Parent ]
Stop Telling People to Leave (0.00 / 0)
That's twice now in two days you've told people to leave the site. Troll-rated for being a jerk.

[ Parent ]
Your objections to OpenLeft are exactly why I love it. (4.00 / 3)
I'm sick of DLC clones running around the blogosphere claiming to be Democrats and progressives.  If you want establishment thinking, I'm sure CNN or MSNBC websites can give you that.  

OpenLeft is my voice, and I don't appreciate you trying to shut it up.   I come here for their pov, not yours.  If I wanted msm pap, I'd go to CNN or MSNBC, too.  

I, for one, hope the crew at OpenLeft never stops telling the truth or feeling the anger at what these people have done to us and our country.  "If you aren't pissed, you haven't been paying attention."  

They're asking for another four years -- in a just world, they'd get 10 to 20. ~~ Dennis Kucinich  


[ Parent ]
No one is trying to shut up OpenLeft (4.00 / 3)
Way to put words in that guys mouth. Open left is a community, not just a blog. Thats why you're reading the comments despite your insistence that you don't come for the views of commenters. A healthy community requires that dissenters within certain parameters feel comfortable. Presumably here that means as long as you're a Democrat who wants to make the party more progressive, you're welcome.

Usually we do a good job but that isn't always the case.


[ Parent ]
Shouldn't take the criticism to heart? (4.00 / 1)
Well, maybe.  However, I've seen some of the attacks on Sirota and Matt.  Guess that colors my pov.    

They're asking for another four years -- in a just world, they'd get 10 to 20. ~~ Dennis Kucinich  

[ Parent ]
And Paul. (4.00 / 2)
Seriously this place sometimes is like a bar where people try to punch the bartenders in the face just for fun. To see what happens.

It's annoying.

Montani semper liberi


[ Parent ]
Maybe (0.00 / 0)
But sometimes the bartenders screw up the drinks ;-) I just don't want to see this become one of those bars where the tenders are arrogant and condescending to boot!

[ Parent ]
NO! (0.00 / 0)
Take the criticism to heart! Just don't take it personally.

People should criticize what the bloggers right. No need to attack Matt, or Chris or Paul etc.

(I feel differently about Sirota but won't bring that up)


[ Parent ]
Still doesn't explain why (4.00 / 4)
There is a lack of explanation on both sides as to why the bailout was okay or why it sucked.

One writer on this site said the crises didn't exist - which it does - being a freeze on credit right now.

People want something done but they want the Wall Street crooks to hurt more than us.

I trust those who say there is a problem - a 777 drop shows something is wrong. I don't trust Congress keeping politics out of the solution.


it is not hard to find explanations from "college-credit" economists (4.00 / 3)
or even Nobellists as to why the bailout is bogus:

http://www.thenation.com/doc/2...

as for the "freeze on credit" -- I agree with Drake, here:

http://www.openleft.com/showCo...

Why do you trust those who say there is a problem? They are, more or less, the "neoconservative" Republicans and the "moderate" Democrats (along with the "liberal" press) who we trusted in the rush to war.

And why do you -- and so so many other people in the comments -- continue to insist that whether or not to spend $700 billion dollars of taxpayer money is "only an economic" question and not a political one? How can such a massive diversion of our country's wealth not be a political question?


[ Parent ]
First aid (0.00 / 0)
The best analogy I've seen, the Talk Slowly post Chris linked to, talked how this measure is first aid, not a full solution.  Much of the high-minded talk on this site conjures images of Doctors debating surgery procedure, the benefits of exercise and good nutrition, and other medium to long term measures while the patient stopped breathing and heart beat is weak.  First, let's administer CPR, then we can debate the longer-term stuff.

If this credit crunch is really as big a deal as most everyone in the know claims, we are in for big problems.  Big problems in the short term and big problems in the long term.  If Paulson's deal is good enough to get the heart beating and the patent breathing, I'm for it.  We can work out healthier habits later.


[ Parent ]
$700 billion is not "emergency CPR" (4.00 / 4)
It is a massive amount of spending that we will not be able to follow up with -- to use your metaphor -- additional care.

$700 billion is "emergency chemotherapy."

And please:

"If this credit crunch is really as big a deal as most everyone in the know claims..."

Who "in the know" -- let's agree to count only independent experts, and not the eight billion Wall Streeters who are lining up to tell us their new "intuitions" -- are you referring to?


[ Parent ]
but (4.00 / 1)
But what people don't understand is the plan was never going to cost $700 billion due to purchased assets and warrants, and the debt added was not of the form that impacts the economy negatively and should have zero impact on any future programs.

Sorry, couldn't help with the "don't understand" thing.  It's what all the kewl kids are doing.

For the record I  couldn't give a damn about the stock market -- it will eventually recover as long as everything else is ok.  I'm worried about smaller business making payroll this week; that's what the credit crunch is largely about.

As far as experts go, I picked mine before I knew their take; people I tend to trust.  I didn't just pick and choose those that supported what I already wanted to believe.  Given the noise out there it is very easy to do that.


[ Parent ]
hi Mark (0.00 / 0)
I didn't know you had your own team of independent experts. What are their names, and could you perhaps provide us links to their statements that the "credit crunch is really a big deal"?

[ Parent ]
:-) (0.00 / 0)
Oh yea, I keep several on waivers just for emergencies like that.  I'll have my people call your people if you'd like the list of names.

Seriously, though, I only meant I checked with Krugan, DeLong and Rubin because I trusted their opinion.  These were economists (ok, Rubin isn't really an economist) I already had developed a trust in.  Krugan and DeLong were mildly for and Rubin mildly against.

All the names who've come out seriously against it were people I hadn't heard of before.  Now that isn't shocking since I haven't heard of basically any economist; you could link to the past 10 Nobel prize winners and doubt I'd recognize a name.

My only point was...  well, I think you get the point.


[ Parent ]
well (0.00 / 0)
I think we're roughly in agreement on at least one thing: the message that failure of this bill is a catastrophic disaster is itself bogus. Neither of us has an economist willing to go on the record and say that unless a new, very similar bill is passed in the next week there will be disaster.

Rather to the contrary, most economists (academics, at least -- not your secret cabal sneaking out for more cigars) -- say something like this:

"we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come."

and the notion that we are currently experiencing a devastating credit crunch requiring immediate intervention is wrong.


[ Parent ]
Sry, but in that other post... (0.00 / 0)
..you questioned if there are pundits saying the "credit crunch is a big deal". Now, it 's about pundits not willing to go on the record with a timeframe in which the solution has to be found. That's something entirely different.

Uh, sry, but was this other statement just a case of sloppy phrasing, and we wasted lots of time here discussing about a misunderstanding?  


[ Parent ]
You yourself mentioned Krugman (0.00 / 0)
But you didn't mention that he supports the view that there is a crisis, that he supported the bill even though being well aware of its flaws, and that he calls the US a "banana republic" for the irresponisible acting of its lawmakers.

AQnd Krugman is hardly alone in being concerned about the crisis. De Long is in the same boat, Roubini, Ritholtz, etc etc

And Warren Buffet compared it to Pearl Harbour!  

Really, where are the renowned pundits who argue this is no "big deal"???


[ Parent ]
multiple strawmen all over (4.00 / 2)
I have never claimed this was "no big deal" -- nor has any writer on OpenLeft.

I have made two claims:

1. We are not currently experiencing a credit crunch (indeed, it would be far to soon for one to emerge other than bank-to-bank, and that hasn't happened.)

2. Nearly all independent economists agree that immediate (in the sense of tomorrow, or Tuesday, or next week) and utterly massive action is not necessary.

It is tedious to continue to repost links to the various sources, but here they are one more time:

http://freakonomics.blogs.nyti...
http://www.thenation.com/doc/2...

#1 (the point I made in this thread) is circulating around (e.g., in Mark's statement, although perhaps I misunderstood his point); #2 is being blasted on the front page of the Times and the GOP/Dem press conferences -- the Times, for example, is obsessing that the Jewish holiday might cause an unutterably painful delay that could doom us all.


[ Parent ]
Moving the goalposts??? (0.00 / 0)
You questioned that there are pundits who support the view that the "credit crunch is really a big deal". Check this upthread. My comment is a reply on this. "no big deal" is the exact opposite of "a big deal", I don't understand what's your logical point in criticizing me simply phrasing this the other way round. Of those economists who hold an opinion on th esituation, those who do not think the "crunch is a big deal" necessarily think it's no big deal. Isn't this logic 101???

As for your links, thx, but the Freakonomics story supports my point that economists see this as a serious crisis, and only differ in their opinion on the right plan to cope with it. And Stiglitz is avoiding the main question if there's a crisis, and seems to think the solution can wait until next year, ok. However, nothing he writes can be construed as saying this is no big deal. Call me unimpressed.


[ Parent ]
i think (0.00 / 0)
we have missed each other like ships in the night, dnk schn

[ Parent ]
I increasingly get that feeling, too... (0.00 / 0)
but at least it was an interesting discussion. Dnk shr
:D

[ Parent ]
Chris et al, (0.00 / 0)
You seem oddly contented to be on the same side with people who voted against the bailout bill primarily because it represented 'the slippery slope of socialism'.

Best hope now is that the immediate fallout will scare enough folks to produce a dozen more votes, but not severe enough to make the injection of credit a useless exercise.


A Normal Part of the Legislative Process (4.00 / 5)
A bill fails, and they come back two or three days later with a better version.

What some people don't seem to get is that this bill would not work...

State intervention arrested the panic that developed Wednesday of almost two weeks ago. By proposing a "secret plan" and rescuing AIG, the psychology of the panic was lanced, and the markets suspended in time. This pulled us back from the abyss, a tactic that worked so well some people-across the spectrum-began to doubt there was a crisis at all.

But the economic damage continued behind the scenes, via the credit crunch. And at some point the bailout, which was announced in part to stave off the delusions brought by panic, started to create a different delusion: that things were not as bad as they really were and are.

This bill had no stated criteria for how to treat toxic assets. Its primary functioning mechanism was to buy "bad assets" from willing institutions via an unstated pricing criteria, with the voluntary option of the Treasury to get something in return. There was no estimation of the underlying problem...no estimation of whether government could ever offload those assets...little help for homeowners...and only lip service to oversight. Amazingly, the changes made to the bill over the last week were due more to sausage-making to get the bill passed, rather than strengthen it by making it coherent.

In short, Congress was going to give the Treasury $700bn in walking around money, hoping that would tide things over until a new administration had settled in over the winter.

This thing was a recipe for disaster: a huge amount of money would have been blown into smoke, with no tangible effect. Perhaps worse, people would have assumed that all that money had to be doing something positive, and the damage to the underlying economy would have continued unabated. A month or two from now, maybe three, maybe four, it would all have finally hit the fan.

Now that it has failed, we are back to reality. I believe Congress will pass a bill later this week, hopefully one that is much stronger than this. Even then, it is likely we are only at the beginning of a long, roller-coaster economic ride...


now now (0.00 / 0)
What some people don't seem to get is that ...

That kind of language is not allowed on this site.  We must all pretend that everyone who disagrees with us understands everything perfectly well.  Arguing over facts only leads to hurt feelings.


[ Parent ]
Yes Mark (0.00 / 0)
In surfing around the blogoshphere this evening, I've been struck by how there seems to be a group of people who wanted to see the bailout pass, just because it would feel like somebody somewhere was doing SOMETHING about the huge problem that faces us.

And I don't mean to be snarky toward anyone-I hope Baldrick caught my Black Adder quote-I just hope people understand that this bill was likely to cause us more trouble than help.

In any case, I really do hope to see something positive pass Congress later this week...something we can all support. Because if we think we can just let this wait until winter...


[ Parent ]
risk (0.00 / 0)
In any case, I really do hope to see something positive pass Congress later this week...something we can all support. Because if we think we can just let this wait until winter...

I fully agree with this.  By nature I'm an optimistic person and was somewhat happy to see the bill fail despite my support for it, largely because it leaves the opportunity for something better.

Where I disagree with most is I don't think the current plan was all that fiscally bad.  I don't think it was nearly as expensive as the pricetag associated with it.  It is an investment.  The worst case scenario is it was a bad investment, but still an investment.  Much of that money was coming back.  So I don't consider the risk of the plan as high as others, while the risk of doing nothing I probably rank a bit higher.


[ Parent ]
Not likely to be this week (0.00 / 0)
The Rosh Hashonah break makes that nearly impossible, as a fundamentally better bill is going to take some time to hash out, but on the substance and the politics. I'm guessing that some emergency bill gets passed to stanch (or appear to stanch) the worst bleeding for now, while punting the real bill onto the next congress and administration. The votes might well be there for a better bill, but I suspect that the politics isn't, at the leadership level, where these deals get made behind closed doors. But who knows, maybe there'll be a backbencher revolt and they'll force the leadership to make it happen. We'll see.

Meanwhile, my mom's retirement plan loses thousands by the day...

Thanks, Hank, Ben, Alan, Ace, Phil, Robert, Larry, et al.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton


[ Parent ]
"House to Wall Street: Drop dead" (0.00 / 0)
Despite the sensationalist title, actually a quite neutral story on the rejection of the bill (hat tip to Brad De Long):
http://www.marketwatch.com/new...

However, the important part in the story is:
" The leaders in Congress and in the administration will undoubtedly try again, hoping to write a compromise bill that can attract a majority. But that won't be easy, because the Paulson plan had significant opposition from backbenchers on both the Republican right and the Democratic left.
Rejection of the plan means there's no political solution to this financial crisis on the horizon. As it now stands, the markets are on their own.
The next six weeks will tell whether the coup d'etat in the House on Monday has created a political crisis to match the financial one."

This should be pointed out in every story on the Paulson/Dodd bill - the next chance to implement a better plan is most probably only after the election! That's six weeks from now, a very long time, during which the markets, and this means the investors, are left twiddling their thumbs and tearing their hair. If anything will make them panic during that time, it isn't clear if the Feds alone have the means to stop a stampede. That's the risk.


[ Parent ]
I would imagine that with respect to the credit liquidity problem (0.00 / 0)
that backers of this plan kept warning us about to get us to support it, the government can do what it did with AIG, i.e. provide emergency short-term credit at high interest, to viable entities that can show a clear and urgent need for it, in exchange for an equity stake or some sort of warrant, subject to congressional approval beyond a certain amount, and rigorous oversight. As opposed to a blanket authorization for $700B to be dispensed as Paulson sees fit. That should take care of both the liquidity and political aspects of any near-term crises. And any firms that are not seen as viable should be allowed to go under, with their assets put into receivorship. But any fundamental, long-term plan needs to be punted until at least after the election, if not next year. We just need a way to get through the next few months.

They tried to slide a really crappy plan by us using the Shock Doctrine approach. It didn't work this time. We shouldn't let it next time. We either do this right, or not at all. And in the interim, triage mode to keep things propped up.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton


[ Parent ]
I'm not buying (0.00 / 0)
"But that won't be easy, because the Paulson plan had significant opposition from backbenchers on both the Republican right and the Democratic left. Rejection of the plan means there's no political solution to this financial crisis on the horizon."

This is a non-sequitur. Rejection of the plan does not mean there's no political solution. Rather, it means that the flawed Paulson plan was a crappy political solution.

There are plenty of financial bills that pass in the House. I think we can expect to see one crafted in response to this crisis. It just won't be based on the Paulson plan. For my money, that's not bad at all.

Karl in Drexel Hill, PA


[ Parent ]
Well, do you believe a partisan plan is a possibility? (0.00 / 0)
I don't see the Dems going out on that weak limb and pushing a progressive plan through without rethuglican support. Too much risk in it for them, so close before the elections. And nothing in their past performance makes me believe they can be so bold. Do you disagree?

[ Parent ]
No (0.00 / 0)
No, I don't think the Dems have the fortitude to try to produce a partisan plan. Besides, without noticable (R) input, Mr. Obama will have a hard time defending it. He needs it to be bipartisan since that's his schtick.

Sigh.

Karl in Drexel Hill, PA


[ Parent ]
Also, it's the end of the official session (0.00 / 0)
Do you believe lawmakers will abstain from jumping into their reelection campaigns, just to get a very risky and controversial bill done? Even if this would be of uttermost importance for the public good, I don't believe they would. Ok, I'm a cynic, I know...

[ Parent ]
:Quibble (0.00 / 0)
The ancient Greeks had pretty much proven that the world was spherical.  They even had an estimate of the radius that was right to within 10%.  You don't need to circumnavigate the globe--merely watching a ship come over the horizon (you see the mast first, rather than the whole ship at once) is sufficient

Wasn't that because of dinosaurs? (0.00 / 0)
Back when they roamed the flat earth with humans.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
The reason that a better deal wasn't reached (4.00 / 6)
that might have actually passed, was because the people in a position to strike such a deal are still too focused on protecting their and their friends' and allies' stake in this crisis--i.e. the political, financial and commercial elite--rather than that of the rest of us.

They just couldn't do it. They have too much vested in the system that they're trying to prop up to be able to come up with anything better--rather than what they need to be proposing, which is allowing the system to fail in a controlled manner that attempts to minimize the damage to the majority of Americans, even if it causes massive harm to many of these elites.

Faced with a choice between what needs to be done and which would likely have passed, but which would have hurt them more than us, and what they want to be done because it hurts us more than them, but which could not pass, they chose the latter--and in effect chose to do nothing, which is the worst of all possible options.

This is how ruling regimes that have become too selfish, corrupt and incompetent to effectively rule any longer come crashing down, by living in denial and trying desperately to prop up a rotting corpse, and instead having that corpse fall on them, and destroy them.

I.e. this was Weekend at Barney's.

But the public just isn't buying it any longer. Their time is over. What will replace it, I don't know. But the corrupt GOP-Corporate Dem coalition that has effectively run the country for the past 30 years is ending its era of dominance. And the failure of this bill is yet another sign.

I think that this failure to pass this bill represents a wonderful opportunity to finally start getting it right. I'll let the experts argue over what that means and how to get there. But I think most of us here would agree that it should be something on the order of what's come to be called a New New Deal--massive government intervention in the so-called "free" market.

Turns out that "free" actually means $700 billion--if we're lucky--in "service fees".

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton


I Agree (4.00 / 5)
The old regime dies because it chooses to.  It chooses death by selfishness over life through sacrifice, because it has grown fat on decades of forcing others to sacrifice to it.  Reversing that formula now is simply inconceivable.  Like talking about cold fire.

This is, indeed, a turning point, although maybe not the turning point.  It's always difficult to tell these things--just as it's damn near impossible to tell a market top or bottom.  But a turning point is enough.  Enough to put everyone on notice that the turning is either already here, or not far off.

What saddens me is that it really seems that Obama may not be on our side, even after the writing on the wall is lit with neon. He may simply be too wedded to the old order.  He certainly shares their assumptions on a great, great many things.  Right now he seems more like Al Smith than FDR.

I hope I'm wrong.  I hope this shocks wakes something in him that's been sleeping.  I hope he realizes that the choice before him is almost certainly to be a great president, or else a failed on.  His election, at this point, is virtually assured.  But every second now is shaping the world of possibility in which he will govern.  Will he be his own best friend? Or his own worst enemy?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
Like many people who grew up in two worlds (4.00 / 1)
(and not to get all cliche-ey, but having grown up in such circumstances myself, there really is such a thing), Obama is two people, in a sense, each one gravitating towards a different reality. One wants to just fit into the new world, the other is too wedded to the old one. Or, in his case, one wants to fit into the mainstream, white, privileged, unafflicted world (or so it seems from the outside), while the other keeps feeling a tug from his "root" world, which keeps him honest. Thus Columbia and Harvard, followed by community service and civil rights law. He really is two people in this sense, I believe, wanting to be both, and not quite realizing that you can't. You're either who you are, or who you want to be. Trying to fuse the two only leads to disaster.

Pop psychology aside, I think that he could be either kind of president, depending on whether he succumbs to the obvious desire to be part of the establishment (which would be ironic since he will likely soon BE the establishment), which is always the safe choice, or remembers who he is and where he comes from and what he supposedly believes in, and resists that temptation (to the extent possible--you can't lead the establishment and remain an outsider). Although, it may well be that circumstances force him to choose, quite likely in the latter direction, since the former one is a dead end at this point, if he seeks to prop up the decaying old establishment. Better, not only morally but pragmatically, for him to try to form the new order out of the present chaos, in a way that fulfills his progressive background.

History is laying out a path for Obama that he would be a fool to not take, not just because it's the RIGHT thing to do, but because it may well be the ONLY thing to do, that can succeed at this point. The old system is dying. It's not going to be replaced by something completely different. But it's going to have to morph into something new and more viable. The "free market" is dead, now that its last major proponent can no longer sustain it. GOP dead-enders might be too dumb to get it, but they're propping up a corpse. Obama isn't that dumb. Quite the opposite. The real question is whether he's that wise and tough.

We'll see.

Incidentally, I've long believed that societal transformation always takes place in two stages, the first the one that destroys the old order (or where the old order self-destructs), and the second the one that fills in the ensuing vacuum, that becomes the new order. E.g. the French Revolution, followed by the restoration (into which I include the Napoleonic era since he was essentially trying to restore the old order with new faces). Or the Russian Revolution, first the October one, then the November one. Or even the Iranian Revolution. Or, hell, our own, the first phase of which ended at Yorktown, and the second with the adoption of the Constitution. And the New Deal--first the crash and disasterous Hoover administration, then FDR and the founding of a new, lasting order (to the extent that anything lasts in a capitalist democracy).

We're going through the first transformation. What the second, more permanent one will be, is anybody's guess. If Obama and the Dems don't make it theirs--and ours--I fear for who and what will come next, and try to make it theirs, because they certainly won't be on our side of the aisle. (There was yet another 2-phase transformation in the late 20's and early 30's that I'm sure you're familiar with, that didn't work out so well for its volkes, and the world).

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton


[ Parent ]
"Trying to fuse the two only leads to disaster. " (4.00 / 2)
We tend to figure out strategies - select which things makes sense where, or try to adopt wholesale the dominant culture as we think we see it or reject it altogether (which is a varian on the same thing).  But that's neither here nor there, I think the pop psychology readings of Obama are fun, interesting, and occasionally useful, but ultimately they're unfounded, at least when I offer them, because I don't know the guy :)

I think the thing with Obama that we know for sure (I hope) is that unlike Bush, he won't shoot us or jail too many of us who ask for a lot.  So we should ask for a lot, we should ask in ideas and in policies, we should ask through congress and in the streets, and we should take advantage of what Paul rightfully calls a turning.  The purpose of understanding the present, like history, is to be active agents, right? :)

He's eminently pressurable and he's teaching us, inadvertently or intentionally, that we are the ones that we've been waiting for - and he's going to feel the brunt of that, I hope ;)


[ Parent ]
Yes but which world (0.00 / 0)
is his "root" one?

Montani semper liberi

[ Parent ]
He is a community organizer (0.00 / 0)
My impression is that his thought is rooted in the new world, but his action follows the old world.  As I see it, his style as a community organizer is to provide thought leadership to the community, trying to move them towards what he believes; having done that (whenever politically feasible), he follows rather than leads the community in terms of action.

In other words, he would not take actions that fall outside the current mainstream, but he would try to shift the mainstream as much as he could.  So he will always be a "centrist".

I call that being rooted in the new world.  Your mileage may vary.


[ Parent ]
We will see in the next few years (0.00 / 0)
but I think it is the reverse. I think that part of him that likes to curry favor with the elites is his true self.

Montani semper liberi

[ Parent ]
It's not a simple black or white one (0.00 / 0)
Neither figuratively nor literally. From what I know about his life, for lack of a better way to describe it, it's both "diverse" and solidly middle class, in the sense that the country is increasingly diverse (and used to be solidly middle class). E.g. his biracial parents, his upbringing by a white mother and grandparents but as a child of color, in various parts of the country and world, etc. It's a background that made him open-minded and able to see the country, and world, as more than just an either/or, black/white choice. As opposed to the ones that people like Bush and McCain come from or married into, which were privileged, white and uniform, and led them to see the world as an us vs. them place. That's not Obama's "roots". His "roots" forced him to see the world as different variations on "us", with "them" being an artificial division.

Not sure if I'm making sense here, but what I was trying to get at was that he comes from a background that prepared him to deal with the real, modern America, and not the gated community one that most Repubs view it as, with "their" people on the inside, and all those undesirables on the outside. The "roots" that I was referring to was less about a specific ethnicity, religion, region or culture, than about a capacity to see that the country and world are made up of so many of each, that have to coexist and make the most of it somehow. And I was decrying his apparent desire to become a part of that other, artificial, gated community establishmentarian America, for whatever reasons. I hope that he resists this futile desire, because he appears to be better than that, and it's a phony world.

Sorry if this sounds muddled. I'm tired.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton


[ Parent ]
A few observations (4.00 / 1)
1) Being in the majority doesn't mean you are right. A majority of Americans believed Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the 9/11/01 attacks at the time of the Iraq War vote.

2) Being for or against the bailout on the merits isn't necessarily the most important factor for House members voting on bill. For many members of both parties the object is to do what is most politically advantageous a month before an election.

Popular doesn't equal smart. Smart doesn't equal responsible.

The UK government just nationalized $90 billion dollars (US) of assets from UK-bank Bradford & Bingley. The UK is 1/7th the size of the US economy so the B&B seizure translates into something like a $612 billion dollar problem for US-banks.

There is a real problem out there even as the solution is less than clear. Sometimes timing is a key element to finding a solution. CPR can save a life. CPR after 3 minutes without breathing can save a life with the added little side effect of brain damage.

John McCain


Also, for the record... (4.00 / 3)
I never called anyone an idiot. =)

I said I thought that a lot of the responses in the blogosphere have been kind of ridiculous.  I also said that I think people may have too cavalier an attitude towards the crisis.

But I never said anyone was an idiot, because quite frankly, I don't believe that. =)


Then you are giving our current President an awful lot of credit! (0.00 / 0)
:)

[ Parent ]
What is remarkable to me about this? (4.00 / 1)
Republicans are spending all their time blaming the democrats for not passing this bill.

The liberal wiki
Send an email to terra@liberalwiki.com


The part that still amazes me is that the Democrats ended up "owning" (4.00 / 1)
a bill that was proposed by the Bush Administration.

It that what is meant by "bi-partisan"?

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
Actually... (4.00 / 3)
...what you and Matt and David have been doing is knocking down straw man arguments and ignoring the tough questions.  

A majority of Americans (4.00 / 3)
also don't believe in evolution.

The rest of this post is really just an excuse for ignorance (those smart people are always disagreeing).  The anti-intellectualism is really quite astonishing.

If there were an attempt to actually understand the arguments I might feel differently.

I have seen none.

Cya.


Yeah (0.00 / 0)
The evolution analogy is a good one. Now certainly the difference is that the bailout doesn't have the supporting consensus among economists that evolution does in biology. BUT that doesn't mean we can just pick whatever side we want. If you're going to hold a strong position on the bailout you need to have reasons with respect to the economics. If one admits that they don't have a clue when it comes to the economics but STILL have a strong opinion than you're basically no different than someone who disbelieves evolution for reasons totally divorced from biology (i.e. the Bible says so).

[ Parent ]
Also, there's nothing stopping us from studying (0.00 / 0)
Just because we don't have PhD's in Economics doesn't mean we're helpless.  In the past week, I've found out:

- Lots of non-financial businesses get overnight loans from Money Market funds

- It was that source of money that dried up when Lehman went under

- IMHO, it's preventing those non-financial businesses from losing access to credit that needs to be addressed.  Financials need to be propped up only to the extent that it allows liquidity to non-financials to continue to flow.

- Ironically, it's the banks that are crowding out non-financials in the short-term Commercial Paper (CP) market.  The banks won't lend to each other, so they're turning to other sources for money (it's not clear to me why the Money Markets would prefer financials to non-financials, though.  Perhaps an implicit guarantee of not failing after the reaction to Lehman?).

- Also, the pool of money available to banks and non-financials is shrinking.

- Note, BTW, that the paper that banks can buy has terms of 1 to 4 days, so that's the sort of timeframe we're dealing with, not 1 to 3 months.  My guess is this week and next, period.

I'm glad Open Left championed voting "No" on this specific bill, but those like Chris who go further and say that we should wait until January because "experts disagree" on whether something has to be done right away remind me of those who say that we don't have to do anything about climate change because we don't "know" what will happen if we do nothing.  The same rejoinder applies to both:  Do we really want to take that risk?

That doesn't mean we had to accept the framing of Paulson/Bush; we can reject this bill and create a better one.  It will require a political risk from the Democratic leadership, but not an obviously bad one, especially after this vote.  Republicans in the House are on the hook for killing this, so even if a bill passes along party lines, I think most people will look at it as "bipartisanship had it's chance, but Republicans wouldn't go along".  Plus, I don't think cries of "socialism" will get any attention from anyone outside of the Republican base.  In other words, it could be a win-win:  We ge a better bill, and the Republicans are reduced to a 30% party.


[ Parent ]
You are not an idiot, but you are also not about (4.00 / 2)
to retire.

For those of us who work in non-unionized, non-corporate jobs, the collapse of the stock market is catastrophic.  It will be even more catastrophic today, since I, like many, will move my pension funds to preserve value.  

Somehow, I think that move, times millions, is not going to make victory seem very sweet.


The modern equivalent of a bank run.. (4.00 / 1)
and fasha is right, if this reaches a critical mass, the consequences won't be pretty. You all shouldn't forget that "economy" isn't a dinosaur, or a vague idea, but the actions of all market players. And retirees certainly are players, and with their sheer numbers important ones for the financial market.

[ Parent ]
Hmmmm (4.00 / 1)
The anxiety, fear, and stress make sense to me, and I can understand and I'm sorry that you have to deal with it. I'm goign through my own financial stresses right now which are not related to the stock market, but i have family members who are.

I don't think it's fair, though, to say that the bailout not passing hurt the most marginal people in society the most.  Many have little or no investments in the stock market and may not even have much savings or formal savings anyway.  Further, that's what social security is supposed to be for, so we may want to consider the question of why it's not giving out even  to actually serve as a retirement plan (e.g. revisit when Alan Greenspan supported the Bush taxcuts because he didn't want to see the government entering the market because of a surplus).  

This has been a long time coming, and I'm sorry you have to suffer for it, but this is capitalism - and it's ugly.  There is no way to fix that, even though it can be tinkered with around the edges and made a little better or in the case of the past 25 years a lot worse.


[ Parent ]
Who has their retirement money (3.33 / 6)
in the stock market right before they retire?

First of all, working class people DO NOT own stock. That's why they have to work. They work until they can't anymore then live off Social Security.

Middle class people who do own retirement accounts really need to pick up at least one book on the subject at some point during their lives. If they did they would learn that you put your retirement money in stock when you are young, then transfer it into more secure investments as you approach retirement age.

This spectre of "the little guy" who is being harmed because the Masters of the Universe didn't get a blank check is bunk. The little guy has already been harmed for decades, with wage deflation and rising costs. The bailout would have done nothing to help that.

Montani semper liberi


[ Parent ]
Who? All those too lazy to read that book, I guess. (4.00 / 1)
And I suspect that's the majority. Do you want to blame these people for not acting responsibly enough regarding this important issue? Then you have a point. But how very republican of you!
:-/
Btw, did you know that at least one series of treasuries already has a negative return? What would happen if all those folks pulled their investments out of funds and stocks and went all in on T-bills? We'd be heading for the T-bill bubble of 2009, I guess...

(oh, and if you're not talking about treasuries, what other secure vehicles are left? Gold???)


[ Parent ]
It's a serious question. (4.00 / 1)
The fact that I got troll rated for it only confirms my suscipion that in fact, there are very few working class people here.

The majority of people where I live do not own stocks. My own parents do not own stocks. They have been suffering for a long time but since they are not middle class, it wasn't a crisis.

Montani semper liberi


[ Parent ]
Ok, I offset that troll rating (0.00 / 0)
because I don't like this misuse of the tool just to make a point - I have been at the receiving end for totally respectful and honest comments, too (does it really only take two haterz to hide a comment? Tsk tsk).

However, I guess I see the controversy within your comment: "First of all, working class people DO NOT own stock". Sry, but this is factually untrue. Even many working class people have 401ks or similar investment funds through their job. You may not have meant this in an uncomprimising, exclusive way, but it comes across in this manner. And, as I pointed out, blaming the middle class to be reponsible for not caring enough about their investment strategy sounded qzuite heartless, too. Actually, I was a bit surprised about this, it doesn't really sound like you...


[ Parent ]
Thanks. (4.00 / 2)
And thanks for the compliment, too.

I do have my buttons, though. Like I said, my parents don't own stock, they don't even own their own homes. My dad lives on SS and my mother will too, in a few more years. That and hand-outs from my sister and me.

I own stock, because I social-climbed my way out of that situation, but I am not crying about the crash because I would be ashamed to do so. I am too painfully aware of those who do not have my good fortune.

Montani semper liberi


[ Parent ]
Retirement money... (0.00 / 0)
 
Who has their retirement money
in the stock market right before they retire?

If you retire at 65 and live to 95, you still need 30 years of money to survive, not 10 as we used to plan for.  Each of the 4 financial advisors I've spoken with in the last 5 years have suggested that the old model (stocks young, money market old) is out of date because of improvements in health care and life expectancy.  But stocks for middle class investors probably equal mutual funds in most cases, and even if they have a diversified collection of asset classes, many people will still have a significant portion in stocks.

On a quick hit (I think) awhile back, Matt (?) linked to someone who made the point that McCain has a 1 in 7 chance of dying the next four years, based on insurance industry tables.   If you were 73 and had 5/7 chance of dying in the next 4 years, then a very conservative (Tbill or equiv) investment strategy (or is it a tactic, I forget) would make sense, but faced with a potential to live to 85 or 90, your strategy might change.

My mom worked as a family counselor for mentally and emotionally impaired youth for most of her career, I don't know what her average annual income was, but I'm quite sure it would place her in the working class, maybe mid 30s.  She owns stock through various 401k plans.


[ Parent ]
Then your mom is still lucky. (0.00 / 0)
Mine worked as a clerk at TG&Y, and Wal Mart. She had a brief stint running a shelter for battered women. Nowadays she works night shifts at a hotel, which sucks because it means it's hard for her to spend time with the grandkids. None of these jobs provided her with any significant retirement savings, or insurance.

And to be honest, given her health, she is less worried about outliving her meager savings than living long enough to collect social security and play with her grandkids.

For me of course it's different, hence the angst. My husband and I managed to rathole a decent amount of money, and it took a dive, but we are still 15-20 years from retirement and expected to ride out a recession or two anyway.

Montani semper liberi


[ Parent ]
Health care (0.00 / 0)
Well, it does seem there are definition issues in this thread among the various folks that have posted after you, but your point from above is well taken.

This spectre of "the little guy" who is being harmed because the Masters of the Universe didn't get a blank check is bunk. The little guy has already been harmed for decades, with wage deflation and rising costs. The bailout would have done nothing to help that.

I think the first sentence really isn't completely true but certainly applies to the hourly wage-earner in the working class, as opposed to salaried working class that would get some 401k (like my mom before she retired).  This would explain the disconnect in responses.  For the salaried working class, some form of bailout is probably necessary because a major dip in the market would influence their retirement, but I'm happy the last form crashed and burned.

The second sentence, and your comments about your mom above, definitely illustrate why it is imperative that we have some form of real health care insurance that includes preventive health care.  A small IRA isn't going to cover it and Medicare Part B is a cruel joke.  Hopefully that will be achieved in early 09.


[ Parent ]
I don't have any statistics, but I suspect that you (0.00 / 0)
are wrong that working-class people don't have money in the stock market.  Here are broad classes of individuals--working class all--whose pensions in the form of 401k's and 403b (401k's for folks in the nonprofit sphere):

teachers
nonprofits like YMCA workers, etc.
artists
lower-level hires in corporations (those who get the mere 10-12% 401k contribution and not the millions of dollars in options

In addition, lots of other working people are investing in the market to pay for their children's college education.

Another thing to consider is that even defined benefit pensions, such as those negotiated by AFSCME, are invested in the stock market, and when the value of those holdings goes down, it raises big financial problems for cities and states.



[ Parent ]
I guess it just depends on your definition of (0.00 / 0)
working class.

I am thinking not of statistics but of people I know in real life. Day care workers and carpenters, for example. Restaurant workers.

But my main point remains, the Paulson plan would do nothing to help the working class (regardless of how you define it) because it was just a blank check for the perpetrators, with nothing for the little people unless you believe in the Trickle Down Fairy, which I don't.

The perpetrators don't deserve $700 billion, they deserve to be in chains.

Montani semper liberi


[ Parent ]
A frame for discussion (4.00 / 1)
Let me suggest a frame that might help in a dialogue about where people actually stand on this, rather than simply talking past each other.

Suppose we think of stating our position on this along three dimensions:

A.  Is there a crisis that needs to be addressed?

For the sake of discussion, we can define "crisis" to mean "likelihood that in short order (within 2-3 months) the situation would have deteriorated to a point where a huge drop (> 5%, depression stuff, not just no-growth recession) in real economic activity within the next year or two is inevitable".  Stock market drops, institutional failures are not considered a crisis, only a real depression that affects people at large that cannot be averted unless we act now.

B. What is the likelihood of success of the action (regardless of whether it is the "right" action?)

Responses can range from "It will not work" to "It might stave off the crisis" to "It is likely to avoid the worst of the problem" to "It will solve the problem".

C.  What is the quality of the action proposed?

The concerns here are probably upward transfer of wealth, likelihood of theft, giveaway to foreign institutions, moral hazard. Responses can range from "It will be purely destructive" to "It is mostly bad" to "It is not as good as it could be" to "It is great".

I am suggesting such a frame because I think people are objecting (or wanting action) on different grounds, and not separating the concerns is leading to bad blood.

I don't really have a vote in this, since I am not American, but I do have 401(k) money at stake.  If anyone is interested, my belief (not particularly informed) is around 50% likelihood that there is a crisis, 40% likelihood of success of the action, and the quality of the proposed solution is around 30%.  I think that if nothing is done now, there will be a stock market drop and a few hundred thousand job losses, but the situation will not be irretrievable; the solution will be a stopgap rather than a deep solution; and a good chunk of the money will end being transferred upward / stolen.  My impression is that this is Krugman territory - that a few hundred billion stolen for a chance to avoid a depression situation and hundreds of thousands of jobs lost is probably better than doing nothing.


Just to be clear: (4.00 / 3)
There are literally hundreds of Ph.D. economists on every side of the bailout argument. There are hundreds of economists who agree with the bailout, as is. There are hundreds of economists who agree with the House Republicans. There are hundreds of economists who don't think anything should be done. There are hundreds of economists who agree with the progressives. There are hundreds of economists who agreed with Paulson, and Bush, and Frank, and Dodd, and pretty much everyone involved with this argument.

Oh, so, you know who they are and you know their stated positions?  Perhaps you have a list of economists, and you note their positions beside their names?  And the number of those who support, oppose, and prefer something different all reach into the hundreds?  Do you have that list Chris?  Or are you making suppositions without any evidence?  

Further, it is important to remember that no one understands something as complicated as the economy. While certainly there degrees of understanding, the truth is that the highest level of understanding of the economy ever attained by any human is still pretty frackin' puny relative to the ginormous scope of the subject matter. Just as it is important to study, it is important to always demonstrate humility about our understanding of pretty much everything. Keep in mind, for example, that humans who live now are just as smart as we were 50,000 years ago, but it still took 48,000 years for even the smartest of humans to guess that the world we inhabited that entire time was actually a sphere. And it took another 1,500 years to actually prove it.

Oh, now I see, it's ok for you to offer an uninformed opinion, 'cause ain't nobody understands it anyway.  Right?  That's what you're saying, right?  That you're opinion is as good as anyone else's opinion because nobody gets it.  And why don't we get it?  Well, we're just unfrozen cavemen.

They had both presidential candidates, the leadership of both parties in both branches of Congress, virtually the entire national media, and all of the moneyed interests in their corner, and they still couldn't convince a majority of either the public or congressional backbenchers that it was a good idea. If you ask me, that is actually pretty frackin' pathetic. Some might even wonder if there is a fundamental stupidity at the core of this proposal if, with virtually all the levers of public influence supporting it, the majority of the country still thinks it is a bad idea.

Bullshit.  Polling bias:  http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

What's disappointing, Chris, is that you are actually smarter than this.  But here you put up a post full of specious reasoning and bad information.  Hope you feel good about yourself.


I would have given this four points.. (0.00 / 0)
if I wouldn't think this is a bit too harsh on Chris. However, some good points. And thx for the link, 538 is doing a great job at exposing the problems with the "bailout" polls in that story.

[ Parent ]
No (0.00 / 0)
It's an overheated bunch of baloney.

If the problem is that some of us are uninformed, then time would be best spent informing us rather than ranting.


[ Parent ]
The fact that there is a debate (4.00 / 1)
between economists over the bailout. Doesn't give you free reign to pick a side for reasons totally unrelated to economics.
Also, you will have a hard time finding 100 economists who think the House Republican plan will help a crisis.

Finally, you're absolutely wrong when you say that studying economics doesn't lead to a convergence in views. The vast, vast majority of economists will be more opposed to market restrictions than the average person. Economists are much, much more likely to support free trade.

Now that doesn't mean all economists are Republicans (most probably aren't) and it definitely doesn't mean you have to agree with them. But the way the left just ignores the study of economics sometimes is really embarrassing. Its the only area of study that those on the left feel comfortable totally ignoring.


So, does this mean you're putting your pitchforks away....? (0.00 / 0)
I'm glad to see at least a little backing away from you and Matt from all of your "Pitchfork" rhetoric... But, I'd like to see a little more. Like you did in backing away from theories like the "incumbent" rule in presdential forecasting.

Logically, you have three places to go now that the bill and  markets have answered your question "does the bailout matter" -- the markets lost a trillion dollars yesterday -- mostly from the financial sector -- in reaction to the bailout failing.  Investors -- who bet on financial stocks -- clearly believe that things don't look good for banks going forward unless some sort of bailout happens. And so do almost all of the economists... they may differ on how to respond but I haven't heard anyone saying zero rate Treasury bills, banks not lending to each other, and the disappearance of regional banks bodes well for banks and any of us.

So, there are three places to go, questions to answer...

1.  If you believe nothing needs to happen now, you and Matt are essentially stating we have until January to address this problem.  That the banking sector won't start shutting credit lines to all but the most solid businesses (btw... they already are in building and real estate sectors).  So, please tell us why -- in economic terms -- we can wait and what we get for waiting? I would love this outcome.  I just haven't seen any convincing arguments on how this will work.

2. If you believe that something needs to happen now, what should and can happen now.  If you think the Swedish plan is the way to go -- outline politically how that can come to pass.  Also, outline how it works here. The government owns what? Smaller financial firms? Bank of America? Hedge funds?  What's left? I've also heard people say we start a bank?  But, more detail about what it is and how it gets bipartisan support would be great..

3. If you think the answer is a further compromise of the bailout plan, please outline how this can work? Do they put in more bankruptcy provisions and gain 20 dems and only lose 5 GOPs?  Do they include -- god forbid -- a capital gains tax cut?

P.S. I work for a non-profit and we are f'd. See the Times today -- foundations give away 5% of the net assets.  When those net assests decline in value (and they are across they board) they give away less. And, this means an across the board reduction in financing for the non-profit sector (hitting the smaller groups the hardest). Expect to see lots of layoffs and pain unless things -- fingers crossed -- somehow stabilize.  


Thanks, Chris (0.00 / 0)
I don't get a chance to write here very much, but in general I think that you are consistently the best of a very good bunch of posters. Even when I don't agree with what you say, your arguments are always well reasoned.

Today, I agree almost completely, except for one point. You claim that losers in a political contest should never accuse the winners of being ignorant, or worse, stupid. This is actually mostly true in the realm of economics, which is not really a science. As you say, the bailout has roughly as many economic detractors as well as supporters. One very unfortunate consequence of the last week was that Congress did not choose to have hearings before any vote, hearings which would have displayed this divergence of professional opinion. They tried to railroad this thing through.

But, there are cases where one loses because of the ignorance or stupidity of opponents. Two examples. There is virtual scientific consensus on the cause and dangers of global warming. Yet, this is virtually a non-issue among the public. How can effective advocacy of policy solutions triumph when there is a high degree of public ignorance on this issue?

The second example is our nation's energy policy. How can we hope for an adequate solution when there is widespread ignorance about the true state of existing national and global energy reserves? Witness the effectiveness of "drill, baby, drill" in getting legislation passed to this effect.

Do you say that those of us who believe, from an informed point of view, that advocates of renewable solutions and conservation must blame themselves for not advocating effectively enough? Perhaps you do. Anyway, I am not going to beat myself over the head because the public is so susceptible to unworkable solutions because of their lack of essential information (ignorance).

On the bailout matter, I am amazed by how easily many are persuaded to panic by the statements of those in authority. To me, the bailout bill that failed (so far) was best characterized as extortion. The Treasury officials, unlike any previous case that I know about, chose to spread panic rather than calm the situation. The message seems to be, hand over the money, and things will be all right. (For a few months anyway). That so many Democrats fell for this has me seriously rethinking my lifelong devotion to the Party.

I suspect that Wall Street will soon get over its tantrum, and behave more or less normally. After all, there is real money to be made or lost there, and there is no time to waste!  


Expertise, democracy and tolerance (0.00 / 0)
The mathematician Norman Levitt argued thus:

Public opinion seems obstinately impermeable to scientific good sense. The fit between the intellectual habits of most laymen and what is required for reliable scientific judgement is depressingly inadequate.

and therefore science must be:

insulated from the impulsiveness of vulgar majoritarianism and populism

Now, Chris Bowers writes:

Being one of the roughly one hundred and eighty million Americans who opposed the bailout bill today, I have to say that I can't remember being called stupid so often in a 24 hour period so many times in my life. Like the many other lobotomized zombies that compose, or decompose, the slathering, brain dead hordes who simply don't understand economics, it is important to speak to me slowly, remind me that I should abrogate all of my decision making to academic experts and, if I don't, that it will be an example of how democracy itself has failed.

Yeesh. I think I am developing a better understanding of why the conservative backlash narrative works so well. People on the losing side of major legislative and electoral battles in America really do have a habit of calling the winners stupid. When discussing the defeat of the bailout today, the pundit tone on television was almost universally patronizing, sneering disbelief.

Together, these two viewpoints highlight the replacement of collective human thought and action with expertise, which implicitly (and sometimes explicitly) favoured [an aura of] mechanistic certainty and therefore a shift in the nature of our quest for knowledge and the arrangement of human relationships and communications.

Knowledge and truth in all matters exist in a universal "out there" sense, and the legitimate way to approach them is via a particular form of expertise: one that involves the learning and manipulation of symbols -- the symbols having the power of unmediated access to reality. What I mean by this, in concrete terms is: truth or knowledge or solutions are not arrived at via the deliberations of a large part of humankind in the context of their collective goals and experiences, but by the experiments and mathematical activities of a very small subset of experts.

So, the Wall Street bankers and the hordes of Ph.D's in their employ are "experts" because they can crunch the math and you can't (and by the logical positivist view, if the emperor has no clothes, so be it... your pointing that out does not make you any wiser or able to describe reality or manipulate it). And when their awesome mathematical models generate an outcome that is unpalatable, then clearly the fix has to come from them -- for after all, they are the experts.

And if the experiences of lay people cannot inform the search for knowledge or solutions, and further, if the symbolic manipulations that are the alternative are contradiction proof, then the modes of deliberation no longer need to accomodate the messy uncertain range of human experience and such outdated notions as tolerance. "I am right" because the mathematics says so, and "you are stupid" because you disagree with me i.e., you disagree with an expert.

The hardness of the mathematics involved, which it is hoped underwrites the certainty in the results, is also often an impediment for those seeking immediate access to the power that such certainty and exclusive knowledge offers. As animals that mimic the behaviours and patterns of their more venomous cousins know, its cheaper and easier to pretend expertise by adopting the language of the expert as also the pose of certainty.

So, contrary to what Chris writes, it is the winners who usually get to call the losers stupid or dumb. And this we know, does happen down the pyramid. The mainstream calls bloggers stupid, the Obama-fanboy within the blogistan call the Obama-critics (within the blogistan) stupid. The Obama-critics call the PUMAs or Kucinich or Nader supporters stupid. And so on.

Is there a way out of this? Shunning expertise, or mathematics or science, is clearly (I hope it is clear) an act of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Subjugating individual human pursuit of knowledge into some large overbearing system that employs indoctrination to achieve such a state has been tried and the cure found worse than the ailment. I have some ideas (as you can guess from the tone of my previous paragraphs) but they are mundane ones (e.g: a return to tolerance, not as a feel-good activity, but as a  fundamental tool for knowledge gathering).


Doctors argue over what kind of anesthetic to use (0.00 / 0)
When my wife was in her Anesthesiology rotation at med school, one doctor was adamant that "Sodium pentothol is the only way to go."  Her next doctor was outraged: "Sodium pentothol?  That's hugely irresponsible!"

Rochester Turning - turning the tide upstate

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