McCain's Hopes Fade, McNasty To Come?

by: Paul Rosenberg

Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 00:51


TPM reports CNN announces that the first debate had "no effect" according to its "poll of polls," but reality says, "my ass!"  In fact, if the election were held today, according to the Princeton Election Meta-Analysis, there's almost no chance McCain could win:

Of course, the election isn't being held today, but early voting is about to begin, and The Politico reports that the GOP is freaking out, with suggestions that McCain get a lot nartier than he has been.  And why not?  His good guy image is gone for good and we all know he likes to take risks...

Paul Rosenberg :: McCain's Hopes Fade, McNasty To Come?
CNN:

September 30, 2008
CNN POLL OF POLLS: Debate 'changed nothing'
Posted: 05:40 PM ET

From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

(CNN) - Nearly 60 million Americans tuned in to the first presidential debate between Barack Obama and John McCain last Friday, but national polls released this week suggest the square-off did little to change the dynamics of the race.

The new polls are bad news for McCain, who with only five weeks until Election Day is quickly running out of opportunities to shake up the race for the White House.

In a new CNN poll of polls consisting of surveys conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, Obama holds a 5-point lead over McCain, 48-43 percent. That's exactly where the race stood immediately before the two candidates kicked off the presidential debate season in Oxford, Mississippi, four days ago.

But, here in the blogosphere, where no one does real reporting, a few hours ago, no one named "tremayne" posted this right here at Open Left:

And Pollster.com's national trend poll shows a similarly pesky up-tick:

As does the Princeton Meta-Analysis tracker:

Thus, The Politico:

Nervous GOP urges McCain to attack
By MIKE ALLEN & JONATHAN MARTIN
| 9/30/08 7:02 PM EDT

John McCain's fade in recent polls, combined with a barrage of negative news coverage during the financial crisis, has leading Republican activists around the country worrying about his prospects and urging his campaign to become much more aggressive against Barack Obama in the remaining month before Election Day.

A flurry of new polls shows Barack Obama gaining in several battleground states - most notably Florida, Pennsylvania and swing states throughout the West. Officials worry early voting, which is under way in important states such as Ohio, is likely to favor Obama in this toxic political climate.

Several state GOP chairmen in interviews urged the McCain campaign to be more aggressive in hitting Obama's vulnerabilities, such as his past relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and other problematic associations from Chicago.

But as September turns to October-Wednesday marks 34 days to the Nov. 4 election-it is clear McCain himself is to blame for the most urgent problems. His snap decision to throw himself into the bailout debate has proven disastrous, since his efforts looked late and half-hearted, and many in the GOP ignored his pleas in Monday's House vote....

GOP officials also believe that a sustained attack on Obama's ties to his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, scandal-stained businessman Tony Rezko and former radical war protester William Ayers could sway undecided voters.

Among those goading McCain to be more aggressive is Tennessee Republican Party Chairman Robin Smith, who said that "people need to see a gladiator who's willing to defend what exactly he stands for."

"We're not talking, for instance, about the radical associations that Barack Obama has, with Mr. Ayers, Tony Rezko and so on," Smith said. "More could be done."

Murray Clark, the chairman of the Indiana Republican Party, said he is eager for Obama's "troubling relationships" to be aired in his state. "I think those things will come up in Indiana again and they do have an impact on mainstream voters in Indiana. You call it going negative, [but] whoever ... is in a position to point out these relationships, I think it's helpful."

But right now the economic situation is very troubling for McCain.

So, the GOP wants to go all Willie Horton, but the damned Son Of The Great Depression just keeps horning in on the picture.

Life is soooo unfair!

But just because it won't work, doesn't mean they won't try.  In fact, other parts of the RWNM are doing their darnedest right now:

Big Lie
by digby

I've been writing quite a bit about the building rightwing "explanation" for the economic crisis: the blacks and the Mexicans stole your tax money to buy perfectly good houses they couldn't afford and the wreck them. Perlstein called it "a modern day equivalent of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion-a Big Lie narrative that blames a despised, outcast social group for problems they had nothing to do with, in order to aggrandize the ability of the dominant group to hate and oppress." There are a lot of awesomely outrageous claims floating around in right wing circles right now as they desperately to keep the whole ship from going down, but that has to be the most despicable.

But even more scary is the idea that it might just work.  Rick recounts a tale of the modern media, which is both familiar and infuriating:

    So what did I do in that Chicago radio studio last Friday when a wingnut (who, incidentally, is African American) spewed forth some excrement about how Jews harvest the blood of children for their Passover matzohs handouts to swarthy people are responsible for the meltdown of the American economy? I did my job. I called it a "lie and a slander," explaining in simple and forceful terms that lending institutions covered by the CRA have a lower mortgage default rates than ones that aren't, and that even if the former were the worst companies in the history of the universe, they wouldn't have helped produce the financial contagion had not conservative deregulation green-lighted the buying and selling of insanely irresponsible mortgage-backed securities.

Perlstein's come-back got edited out, naturally.  Digby added this link to Media Maters with more on this racist meme.


Tags: , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
A couple points (4.00 / 1)
Debate 'changed nothing'
But, here in the blogosphere, where no one does real reporting, a few hours ago, no one named "tremayne" posted this right here at Open Left:

Look at tremayne's graph and draw an imaginary line for Obama and McCain continuing the trend from the 25th to the 26th. You'll notice that trend was better for Obama than what actually happened.  Clearly, the debates slowed Obama down!

Son Of The Great Depression

That's Spawn Of The Great Depression.  Or, perhaps, Great Depression II, Spawn of Satan.  Regardless, the word Spawn is not optional.


CNN's "poll of polls"... (4.00 / 2)
Is completely idiotic.  They basically pluck a few random polls out of the air and average them... they don't have a standard set of polls that they use, or some standard for what they use as far as I can tell.  I'd have to go back and look, but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the two "poll of polls" that they're comparing use completely different sources.

The article doesn't say (4.00 / 3)
If any blogger posted an average of polls without mentioning which polls were used, s/he'd get laughed off the internets.  But I guess real news sources don't have to worry about those kinds of details.  Sheesh.

[ Parent ]
i expect some real nasty ads aimed at Obama (4.00 / 1)
Because, you know, he turned down the town hall idea so he deserves whatever smears he gets.

That is all they have left (0.00 / 0)
I don't think the debate was the inflection point: it was McCain's decision to suspend, then re-engage his campaign.

It's the sort of mistake you can't recover from.

I was trying to think of a serious mistake the Obama campaign has made over the last 20 months.  The biggest one I can come up with was Golsbee's meeting with the Canadians right before the Ohio Primary.

McCain badly needs an Obama mistake, and Obama simply isn't making very many.  

It is simply amazing that a first time national candidate could run hard for nearly 20 months an not make a significant mistake.



[ Parent ]
Are you seeing the tie-in with all those wingnut trolls (4.00 / 4)
who've been calling in to CSPAN one after the other to accuse blacks, illegal aliens and liberals of being the real cause of this crisis? Some have even gone as far back as the Carter administration to put the original source of the blame there. (Could LBJ and FDR be far behind as the original original cause of the meltdown, if not Jefferson?)

This is a concerted and directed attempt to scare all those swing state working and middle class white voters from voting for a far-left radical socialist commie black man. It's obvious. And McCain is likely to jump into it more directly soon. It's all that he has left.

Well, there's also the antichrist angle that they're trying out...

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton


McCain Doesn't Want To Jump Right In (0.00 / 0)
He wants to be able to "stay neutral", and say stuff like, "Well, I really don't know, but it's a legitimate concern."

Which is why this sort of campaign needs to gain a lot more traction independently of him.  But time is running out, and he's becoming increasingly desperate, so who knows how far he'll go?

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


[ Parent ]
So far it appears to only be working with the already converted (0.00 / 0)
CSPAN is an easy venue. So long as you stay on topic, aren't an obvious repeat caller, and refrain from referring to your or the host's private parts (this happens several times a week, believe it or not--some seriously disturbed people call into CSPAN), they'll let you spout whatever nonsense that you like for a few seconds, even if it's obviously coordinated propaganda. But not many people watch CSPAN, and of those who do, most have probably already made up their minds since they're political junkies, who tend to not sit on fences. And for whatever reasons, the establishment media has not (yet?) jumped on board, so it's still a fringe smear campaign.

This isn't 2004, and the conditions that made it possible for the Swift Boat smear campaign to succeed just don't apply now. Obama is much smarter and more responsive than Kerry, the media likes him more--and not liking McPalin so much these days--and the public just isn't in a mood to consider such silliness. No doubt some swing voters will be swayed, but they were probably leaning McCain and this will just push them in the direction that they were likely going to go anyway. But I don't see it gaining much mainstream traction. Too openly and desperately racist, and too little factual support (as in NONE). Not many people who aren't already RW dead-enders who are likely to be convinced by an argument that basically says that despite the miserable failure that Bush and the GOP have been these past 8 years, it was actually liberals, blacks and illegal aliens who caused this meltdown.

Which is why I expect McCain to jump in soon, since the storm troopers aren't making much inroads this time around. He's going to have to take this hill himself (like the TR reference, eh?). Except, Dems and Obama have the high political ground, and he's going to get cut down mercilessly. If he tries this, not only will he lose in a landslide, but his political career will be over. In'Shallah!

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton


[ Parent ]
But elections aren't held today (4.00 / 1)
And the graph shows that abrupt swings are possible. So, don't fall for the lazyness of phony confidence now, pls! Besides, for a real landslide that's necessary for a policy change towards the progressive side, every single point that Obama can get higher will help candidates down the line. Take no chances, keep on fighting!

Princeton Election (0.00 / 0)
Wow, that guy does not like Nate and fivethirtyeight. Of course, since they are both giving distributions it is highly unlikely that either of them will be "wrong".

McCain has tried three or four strategies already ... (0.00 / 0)

... another four or five will not make much difference.

Tactics, Not Strategies (0.00 / 0)
Acting three different ways at once is not so much a strategy, more a form a political Tourette syndrome.


"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Donate to Open Left








Friends of the Earth thanks the OpenLeft community for the ideas you generate and your contributions to the progressive movement.

As an anti-spam measure, there is a 24-hour waiting period after registering before new users can comment.
blog advertising is good for you
blog advertising is good for you
SEARCH

   

Advanced Search