(Dark Blue (239): Obama +7.0% or more
Lean Blue (61): Obama +2.6%-+6.9%
White / Toss-up (75): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (5): McCain +2.6%-+6.9%
Dark Red (158): McCain +7.0% or more)
Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%. Before you ask, if a state isn't listed, it isn't that close right now. Also before you ask, yes I have included whatever new poll you can show me.)
With only 33 days until the election, and with early voting under way in a few states, Obama has taken a commanding lead in the 2008 presidential campaign. Obama is up to 353 electoral votes, and has a comfortable lead outside the margin of error in states worth 273 300 electoral votes. If Election Day were tomorrow, I would estimate McCain's chances of victory at around 5-10%. That ios pretty similar to fivethirtyeight.com, which currently gives Obama an 85.4% chance of victory.
The bad news is that Election Day isn't tomorrow, and we still have quite a bit of campaigning to do. There are three more debates, including one tomorrow where, in order to surpass expectations, all Palin has to do is show up and demonstrate that she can speak English. A lot can happen in 33 days, and it is best to stay on the attack as much as possible. Winning isn't the only goal right now--building a working majority to in order to pass legislation also matters quite a bit. Kos has a good list of ways of looking at the current situation as well.
* Maine's four electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. ME-01 is about 3.2% more Democratic than the state as a whole, while ME-02 is about 3.2% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
** Nebraska's five electoral votes are awarded as follows: two for the statewide winner, and one for the winner of each congressional district. NE-01 is about 6.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, NE-02 is about 11.0% more Democratic than the state as a whole, and NE-03 is about 18.0% less Democratic than the state as a whole.
Methodology The forecast is updated whenever there are enough new polls to warrant an update. The methodology for the forecast is simple and straightforward.
For each state, all polls with the majority of their interviews condcuted within the last 7 days from publication of the forecast are included in the averages. There are some necessary exceptions to this rule.
Every state has at least three polls, so the first exception are states without three polls that meet the previous criteria. In the event that three polls taken within the past week are not available, the three most recent polls are used. (Note: "Most recent" is determined by the mid-point in the dates of the polls. For example, a poll taken from 9/14-9/17 has a mid-pint of 9/15.5. In the event that more than one poll shares the most recent mid-point, all polls with that mid-point are included in the average.)
The second exception comes with polling firms that have conducted more than two poll in a state over the last 7 days. Every polling firm only has one poll per average.
No polling firm discrimination whatsoever. Polls are never excluded because the organization has a bad or partisan reputation.
During the final two weeks of the election, only polls taken entirely within the past seven days will be included in the averages (with the same exceptions listed above, of course).
